Photo/Zuffa LLC via Getty ImagesDonald Cerrone has had a pretty great year so far.
He started off with a bang on Feb. 5, defeating Paul Kelly by rear-naked choke at UFC 126 and earning the Fight of the Night bonus. (Kelly was subsequently released from the UFC.) The Cowboy followed this up in June, defeating BJJ black belt Vagner Rocha by unanimous decision at UFC 131. He then defeated Charles Oliveira via TKO at UFC Live: Hardy vs. Lytle on Aug. 14 (earning Knockout of the Night), and followed that up by defeating Denis Siver via rear-naked choke at UFC 137, walking away with the Submission of the Night bonus.
That's four fights in one year and $215,000 in bonuses alone, not to mention that Cerrone is on a six-fight winning streak. He will try to finish the year off as strong as he started it at UFC 141 on Friday night by winning his fifth fight in 2011.
Standing in his way is Nate Diaz, who is only 1-3 for the year due to back-to-back losses to Dong Hyun Kim and Rory MacDonald. Diaz most recently rebounded with a win over Takanori Gomi, who he defeated handily via first-round armbar at UFC 135 in September. This was the BJJ brown belt's return to the lightweight division.
The betting lines are out and Cerrone is clearly the favorite, but betting lines don't have much say. Here are five areas that will determine who walks away with the win on Friday night.
Standing
If Cerrone has the best kickboxing in the division, Diaz probably has the best boxing. And the two both have chins of steel -- Cerrone has shown that he can definitely take a punch, and we saw Nate Diaz get hit flush by Melvin Guillard and keep moving forward, and what will happen in a standup war is anyone's guess.
"On the feet, he better knock me out, if not, he's gonna be in trouble," Diaz said in a pre-fight interview. But neither Diaz nor Cerrone have ever been knocked out. Diaz has seven losses; six by decision and one by submission. Cerrone holds two decision losses and one by submission. The chances of this fight going to a decision seem pretty slim.
Ground
Grey Maynard had no difficulty taking Diaz to the ground, so Cerrone shouldn't either. Diaz is a brown belt under Cesar Gracie, though, so despite Cerrone's submission victories, Diaz probably has the edge as far as submission attempts go. Will Cerrone be able to neutralize these with an effective ground game of his own? Or will he get careless throwing bombs in the ground-and-pound battle and leave himself open for a quick finish?
Size and Strength
Cerrone may very well have a strength advantage, but it's worth noting that Diaz has long fought bigger and stronger opponents as a welterweight and did quite well for himself. Now that he is fighting in his natural weight class, size and strength may not be as much of an issue as one would think.
Gas Tank
Would this fight go to the later rounds? If so, the advantage would be Cerrone's. While Nick Diaz is incredibly conditioned and does not gas out, the same cannot be said for his brother.
Camps
It is hard to compare the highly-touted Team Jackson with the more mysterious Cesar Gracie Jiu Jitsu. The champions coming out of Jackson's camp are too many to name, and Cerrone (along with fellow fighter Leonard Garcia) actually owns the TapOut Ranch, a 10-acre ranch with a wing devoted to fighters who want to live and train full time, and there is something about the full immersion experience that can help take your game to the next level. Cesar Gracie, however, is a world-renowned MMA coach in his own right. And although the Pleasant Hill Academy is perhaps less publicized than Greg Jackson's camp, many fighters coming out of the gym have made waves in the national MMA scene, including Strikeforce lightweight champ Gilbert Melendez and former Strikeforce middleweight champ Jake Shields, to name just a few.
Fightin' Words
Cerrone has a bit of a bone to pick with Diaz, who did not respond favorably to the Cowboy introducing himself. The last time Cerrone was as ticked off as he seems to be now was before his rematch with Jamie Varner. Despite the plethora of middle fingers given, as well as shoves both between rounds and after the fight, Cerrone fought in a controlled way and handily avenged his loss, though it was clear that his vendetta had him training harder. It looks like this is happening again. On the other side, the Diaz brothers both have a tendency of getting under people's skin, which can throw their opponents off during a fight. How will emotion come into play in this fight? Who will stay calm and cool and win the mental war?
A win for Donald Cerrone could catapult him into another title shot, whereas Nate Diaz will likely need a few more fights to find himself in top contender status. This co-main event has Fight of the Night potential written all over it.
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