If You're Looking for a U20 Underdog, We've Got You Covered

Why Anthony Knox is Your Guy to Root For at 57kg

I get it. When Team USA rolls into Samokov, Bulgaria on Sunday for the U20 World Championships, we're all but guaranteed to walk away with another team title. But if you're looking for an underdog to root for, and I mean a REAL underdog story, it's gotta be Anthony Knox at 57kg. In fact, this may be the first time that Knox is this big of an underdog in competition since he was 8 years old. 

Here's what most people don't realize: Knox is walking into one of the most competitive weight classes in the entire tournament. I'm talking about a division so stacked that our statistical analysis shows 24 wrestlers from 23 countries (Russia, you get it), with legitimate medal contenders from five different countries spanning three different continents.

The Numbers Game

Let me break down just how steep this mountain is for Knox. According to our comprehensive analysis, (Full Analysis Here). he's sitting at 8.2% odds for gold and 10.3% for any medal. Before you think those are terrible numbers, consider this: This 19 year old from New Jersey has never competed internationally, yet he's got better odds than wrestlers with far more international experience. 

The statistical favorite? Japan's Rin Sakamoto at 26.3% gold odds. Sakamoto won the All Japan Championships, the first US based wrestler to do that since 1995, while training at Oklahoma State under David Taylor. Then you've got Azerbaijan's Vasif Baghirov at 25.0%, the reigning U20 European champion who just beat Georgia's Nika Zangaladze (20.6% odds) in what might be the match of the year .
 

The Knox Factor

But here's what the numbers can't capture – Knox brings something none of these international stars have: that uniquely American blend of relentless conditioning and mental toughness forged in the crucible of good ole’ American training. 

Check out his World Team Trials performance against Ignacio Villasenor. This isn't just technique and speed and all the things that we’re used to seeing from the NJ standout, his ability to adapt is what takes center stage. After losing match one of three 2-3, Knox rattled off 13-5, and 10-0 (in 0:32) wins to claim his first World Championship berth. I realize that Knox will not have the luxury of taking a loss in the World Championships and still accomplishing his goals, but the fact that he can make these kinds of adjustments in the middle of an event speaks volumes about the athletic malleability he possesses. 

The International Unknown

Here's the beautiful paradox of Knox's situation. His complete lack of international experience could actually work in his favor. While guys like Baghirov and Zangaladze have been studying each other's tape for years, they just went to war in the European final nobody really knows what Knox brings.

Iran's Arshia Haddadi has been competing internationally since he was a cadet, earning bronze at both the 2022 U17 Worlds and this year's Asian Championships. These guys have scouting reports on each other going back years. Knox? He's a complete mystery. Sometimes that's exactly what you need in a tournament setting, and traditionally  the US has had success (at every age level) in our athletes’ rookie campaign. 

The Gauntlet Knox Must Navigate

Let's talk about the rest of murderers' row Knox has to get through. Beyond the big three favorites, you've got some serious dark horses lurking. China's Chengtao Wang sits at 4.9% medal odds. That might not sound like much, but this kid has been grinding on the international circuit and knows how to peak for big events. Hungary's Karoly Barath has the exact same 4.9% odds, and he already medaled at the European Championships.

Then there's India's Sumit Malik at 4.6% medal probability. Don't sleep on this guy. The Indian wrestling program has been making serious noise lately, and Malik represents that new wave of technically sound wrestlers coming out of South Asia. 

Even the guys sitting in that 2-3% range like Kazakhstan's Nurdanat Aitanov and Korea's Inseong Bak have the kind of international experience that can bite you.

The Bottom Line

Look, Team USA should win this tournament. But if you need a reason to tune in beyond the team race, Knox gives you one. Here's a kid with 8.2% gold odds in the most loaded weight class of the entire event, making his international debut against guys who've been doing this for years.

In a bracket where three wrestlers control over half the medal probability, Knox is basically that wild card that could shake things up, or at least give us some entertaining wrestling along the way.