Blair Academy ran away with the team title at the Walsh Ironman in December (Photo/Sam Janicki, SJanickiPhoto.com)The MyHOUSE Melee held this past Friday and Saturday at Wyoming Seminary's Upper School in Kingston (Pa.) left many more questions unanswered than it did in terms of answering questions. Over the course of the two days, the nation's top four teams all competed, as did No. 8 St. Edward (Ohio). Just to remind everyone of how the rankings were heading into this past weekend:
No. 1 Bergen Catholic (N.J.)
No. 2 Blair Academy (N.J.)
No. 3 Wyoming Seminary (Pa.)
No. 4 Montini Catholic (Ill.)
In Friday night competition, No. 2 Blair Academy beat No. 8 St. Edward 33-20
In the 10 a.m. round on Saturday, No. 1 Bergen Catholic beat No. 8 St. Edward, while No. 3 Wyoming Seminary beat No. 4 Montini Catholic. So far order is maintained.
The noon round on Saturday saw No. 3 Wyoming Seminary beat No. 8 St. Edward, and the wrench gets thrown in big time with No. 4 Montini Catholic -- who had lost the round before to No. 3, who had lost the previous week to No. 2, who had lost the week before that to No. 1 -- beating said No. 1 Bergen Catholic.
Then finally the 2 p.m. round on Saturday saw No. 1 Bergen Catholic - who had just lost to No. 4, after they had lost the round before to No. 3 -- knocking off said No. 3 Wyoming Seminary
So you see how this is clear as mud, and that doesn't even touch upon the teams' dual meets against additional relevant teams during the course of the season, and major individual bracket competitions during the course of the season (some of which were also in actuality common events).
Keep in mind that the InterMat Fab 50 national high school team rankings are supposed to be a mixture of all of this: tournament strength and dual meet strength, along with a peripheral third factor called "roster talent".
Establishing a baseline
To start the 2017-18 season, Blair Academy (N.J.) was ranked as the preseason No. 1 based on the projected lineups from each of the top high school wrestling teams in the country. Their breadth of talent across the fourteen weight classes was both well-balanced and at the high end in many weight classes.
This judgement was proven -- at the time -- to be correct based on the Buccaneers' performances at the tournaments considered to be the best (Walsh Ironman) and second best (Beast of the East) in the country during early-to-mid December. The Walsh Ironman featured ten of the teams presently ranked within the top 16, including Wyoming Seminary and Montini Catholic, while the Beast of the East featured six of those teams, including Bergen Catholic.
Blair Academy won the Walsh Ironman scoring 249.5 points on the strength of ten placers, while Wyoming Seminary (158.5) and Montini Catholic (158) finished third and fourth respectively on the strength of seven placers. Each team was relatively at full strength (though Blair's current 126/132 combo is a slight upgrade to what competed in this event). Second in the standings was St. Paris Graham (Ohio) with 196.5 points on the strength of ten placers, though one of their placers -- 126-pound tournament runner-up Jordan Crace -- is no longer on the roster.
The next week Blair Academy won the Beast of the East, scoring 288 points on the strength of 11 placers. Finishing second was Bergen Catholic with 237 points and nine placers. Blair Academy had a clear reserve at 145 for the Beast, while the present combination at 126/132 is a slight upgrade to what competed at the Beast); Bergen Catholic was absent a key contributor in 2016 state placer Josh McKenzie, wrestled a clear reserve at 138, and the Crusaders have slightly upgraded the 152-pound weight class since the Beast. In all this, the key is McKenzie, who beat Peyton Craft in the Blair Academy dual meet at 195; a reasonable projection for him at this tournament would be that he places third, a result that gives Bergen Catholic a 10th medalist and most likely shrinks that 51-point gap by close to half.
With that as a baseline, I kind of view the top four of the rankings as a two-tier argument: (1) Who is No. 1? Bergen Catholic or Blair Academy (2) Who is No. 3? Montini Catholic or Wyoming Seminary?
The debate for No. 1: Bergen Catholic vs. Blair Academy
The first step of this argument has already been set with an overview of how the teams performed in their common tournament. Blair Academy has the edge in that category.
Given that Blair Academy has the edge in the common tournament, where does Bergen Catholic have their biggest edge? That would be in the head-to-head dual meet. The Crusaders beat at the time No. 1 Blair Academy 33-19 -- nine matches to five.
Clearly the result is the result, and should obviously be accounted for and respected as such. However, in assessing the "why" of the dual meet, one can directly point to two Bergen Catholic pins that provided 12 points of that margin, along with one of the wins. The first pin came in the opening match of the dual meet at 126 pounds where freshman Dylan Weaver decked nationally ranked Chris Cannon in 1:32; both the pin and the win were unexpected and are highly unsustainable. The other came at 170 pound with Chris Foca winning by fall over Julian Ramirez at the 5:35 mark of an otherwise tight match; both wrestlers are nationally ranked, and the bout could have gone either way, but a pin in either direction would register as unforeseen.
Veering away from direct competition against one another, let's look at common opposition. During the course of the season, both Blair Academy and Bergen Catholic have wrestled four common opponents within the top eight of the country in dual meets: Wyoming Seminary, No. 6 Buchanan (Calif.), No. 7 Lake Highland Prep (Fla.), and No. 8 St. Edward.
Over those four dual meets, Blair Academy won 38 of the 56 bouts, while Bergen Catholic won 37 of 56. The average margin of victory for the Buccaneers was 24.5 points, while for the Crusaders it was 17; the comparison is below:
Wyoming Seminary: Blair 37-24 (9-5), Bergen Catholic 40-15 (11-3)
Buchanan: Blair 49-9 (11-3), Bergen Catholic 34-24 (8-6)
Lake Highland Prep: Blair 45-13 (10-4), Bergen Catholic 41-22 (9-5)
St. Edward: Blair 33-20 (8-6), Bergen Catholic 38-24 (9-5)
In peripheral dual meet action, Bergen Catholic sustained a 32-30 loss to Montini Catholic, as the Broncos took home victories in eight of 14 weight classes. Blair Academy has a 49-7 victory over nationally ranked Delbarton on the resume, where they won 12 bouts; while Bergen Catholic is likely to see the Green Wave during their state dual meet series next week.
When it comes to peripheral individual bracket tournament activity, as previously noted Blair Academy won the nation's best in-season tournament, Walsh Ironman. The Buccaneers also have a title at the Geary Invitational to their credit, an event that featured three other members of the Fab 50; while Bergen Catholic counters with a title at the Doc Buchanan Invitational, a prominent tournament that would be ranked among the top five to ten nationally.
Having said all that, it is my conclusion that Blair Academy deserves to be the No. 1 team in the country at this time. While Bergen Catholic's head-to-head dual meet victory probably outweighs the Buccaneers' superior tournament finish at the Beast of the East, the fact that Bergen Catholic has a dual meet loss, along with Blair Academy's superior resume in terms of performance at additional individual bracket events gives the Buccaneers an overall edge.
So who's No. 3? Wyoming Seminary or Montini Catholic?
In the establishing a baseline exercise, we saw that the teams basically had identical performances at the Walsh Ironman. Each squad had seven place-winners, and they finished a half point apart in the standings (158.5 for Wyoming Seminary to 158 for Montini Catholic).
One would think that the 30-23 dual meet victory for Wyoming Seminary over Montini Catholic in which the Blue Knights won eight of the 14 bouts would make the deliberation of the third position in the rankings one that isn't really much of a deliberation.
However, the most recent event causing a dissertation to have to be written about the No. 1 position in the rankings is the catalyst for having to look deeper in at the No. 3 position. It was Montini Catholic that beat former No. 1 Bergen Catholic 32-30, earning victories in eight weight classes; while in the subsequent round Wyoming Seminary was blown out by the Crusaders 40-15, only being able to win three bouts in the dual meet.
Montini Catholic's case is further bolstered when looking at their match with common opponent St. Edward, the Broncos won 12 weight classes in a 47-9 victory, while the Blue Knights won ten in a 45-16 victory.
A somewhat balanced category for the two teams is matches against other teams in the Fab 50. Montini Catholic has a 3-0 mark, which is expected given those matches were against lower ranked opposition in Apple Valley (Minn.), Park Hill (Mo.), and Simley (Minn.); while Wyoming Seminary split matches on back-to-back nights against nationally ranked teams, losing to now No. 1 Blair Academy 37-24 (9-5 matches) before beating now No. 11 Bethlehem Catholic (Pa.) 56-0. It should be noted the Blue Knights are scheduled to face Delbarton this week.
On the tournament side of things, each has participated in one major event in addition to the Ironman. Wyoming Seminary was the dominant champion of the Powerade, an event viewed anywhere from third to fiftbh overall among tournaments nationally; the Blue Knights placed wrestlers in 12 weight classes to beat No. 7 Lake Highland Prep by 70 points (and also 12-8 in terms of placers). Montini Catholic achieved a record level of dominance at the Cheesehead Invitaitonal, a top ten overall tournament in the country, winning half of the weight class titles (seven).
In terms of the national rankings, Wyoming Seminary has six wrestlers ranked to the five for Montini Catholic; a seventh wrestler for Wyoming Seminary is on the outside looking in, while a sixth and seventh for Montini Catholic would also be in that classification as well.
After considering the above, it is my conclusion that Wyoming Seminary deserves the No. 3 spot in the national rankings at this time. In this scenario the head-to-head dual meet outcome carries the day over the common opponent outcomes (Bergen Catholic, and to a lesser extent St. Edward), with there being some degree of balance in terms of peripheral key dual meets and clear equality in terms of individual bracket tournament performance.
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