The finals match is slated to begin at 5:15 p.m., and there will be a free live broadcast exclusively on NHSCA.com, with an archive on the High School Television Network (HSTN) for future viewing. The following is a weight-by-weight breakdown of the battle for number one in the nation.
106: Jordan Kutler (Blair Academy) vs. L.J. Bentley (St. Edward)
This match features a pair of freshmen, both of whom are somewhat undersized for the weight class. However, it is Kutler who has had the better season to date, with a seventh place finish at the Beast of the East, while going 2-2 but failing to place at the Walsh Ironman and POWERade. Bentley was two-and-out at the Ironman, but has shown signs of progress since then reversing his second Ironman loss in a dual meet the next week and going 3-3 at the Clash including a tight loss to nationally ranked Coy Ozias. If the Eagles are to have any chance of poaching the dual meet, this is a match they probably need to win; however, look for Blair to win a tight decision. Team: Blair 3-0
113: No. 3 Joey McKenna (Blair Academy) vs. Alex Moore (St. Edward)
McKenna is the obvious favorite in this match, having outplaced Moore at the Ironman (second vs. fourth) and possessing the greater resume. This past summer, McKenna was a Cadet National double All-American in Fargo, winning the Greco-Roman tournament for a second consecutive year. Against common opponent Aaron Assad, McKenna possesses 4-3 and 5-0 victories in the Ironman and Beast semifinals, while Moore beat Assad 3-1 in overtime in the consolation semifinals at the Ironman. Expect McKenna to earn a somewhat low-scoring but decisive decision result. Team: Blair 6-0
120: No. 19 P.J. Klee (Blair Academy) vs. Colin Heffernan (St. Edward)
Klee is the more proven commodity in this match, though both have been adversely affected by logjams in their area of the lineup during their careers. Last year, Klee (and also Max Hvolbek) was stuck behind the since graduated pair of Evan Silver and Caleb Richardson at 112 and 119 pounds; while Colin Heffernan was forced to wrestle up at 130 pounds due to the presence of Dean Heil and Markus Scheidel at 119 and 125. Prior to his freshman year, in the summer of 2010, Klee was a Cadet freestyle All-American, while last spring he earned All-American honors in freestyle at the FILA Cadet Nationals. This season, he placed sixth at the Ironman and second at both the Beast and POWERade. Heffernan is a complete wild card, as he has wrestled in limited competition due to making the slow descent to this weight class, since Heil and Edgar Bright occupy the weight classes above. He is dangerous, as shown by productive runs this past off-season at the FILA Cadet Nationals and Cadet National Duals in freestyle. The safe pick here is Klee in a close decision, though this is a match St. Edward can hope to poach. Team: Blair 9-0
126: No. 15 Max Hvolbek (Blair Academy) vs. No. 2 Dean Heil (St. Edward)
While this is listed as a showdown between nationally ranked wrestlers, it is also a match where there resides a clear favorite. During the course of this season, Heil has a 5-1 record against wrestlers ranked in the top 12 of their respective weight classes, while Hvolbek is 0-5 with all matches being rather non-competitive. In fact, against common ranked opposition (Jimmy Gulibon, Brandon Jeske, and Joey Dance), Heil is 4-0 and Hvolbek 0-4. The one chance Hvolbek may have to win this match is to score points in the top position, though a more likely (but not probable) scenario could involve Heil extending this out to a major decision. Team: Blair 9-3
132: No. 2 Mark Grey (Blair Academy) vs. No. 8 Edgar Bright (St. Edward)
This is probably the most anticipated individual matchup of the whole dual meet, with two of the most talented and impressive wrestlers of the early season going toe-to-toe. At the Walsh Ironman, Bright placed second while Grey placed fourth; in fact, Bright beat Alex Cisneros in the semifinal, who beat Grey for third place. However, in the championship match, Bright was upended by Randy Cruz, and Grey was able to avenge that loss in the Ironman semifinal the next week in the Beast of the East final. In other matches since then, Grey added a POWERade title to the Ironman title, and Bright has split matches against nationally ranked competition (losing 3-1 in overtime to Kevin Norstrem and beating Joey Ward 3-1; Grey beat Ward 5-3 in the Ironman quarterfinal). Based on their overall careers, it is not a good proposition to predict against Mark Grey, and I will not be doing so here; however, fans of St. Edward winning this match should mark this down as one they need/want to get. Team: Blair 12-3
138: No. 4 Todd Preston (Blair Academy) vs. Nick Barber (St. Edward)
On paper, this appears to be a mismatch. Preston is a two-time National Prep champion and two-time Junior National freestyle All-American, while Barber has placed fourth at the state tournament once and had a poor Junior freestyle tournament last summer going 1-2. However, more relevant to the match on Saturday is what has happened this season. At the Walsh Ironman, Preston placed third to Barber's fifth, including a 1-0 head-to-head victory for Preston in the consolation semifinal. Additionally, both wrestlers have wrestled Nate Skonieczny this year; Barber losing a tight 3-2 decision in a dual meet, while Preston earned a 2-1 victory in the tiebreaker in the finals of the POWERade. The safe pick here is Preston in a close match, but one where the outcome is clear. Team: Blair 15-3
145: No. 9 Dylan Milonas (Blair Academy) vs. Markus Scheidel (St. Edward)
The sophomore Milonas has been one of the breakout stars of the early season winning titles at the Ironman and Beast of the East after failing to place at either of those tournaments last season. Additionally, he was a runner-up at the POWERade, and in all has a 6-1 record against nationally ranked wrestlers this season after dominating his way to a Cadet freestyle title in which he did not give up a single point. Though he is the underdog in this match, Scheidel is a pesky and dangerous opponent. He does have a consolation win at the Walsh Ironman over Reno TOC champ Joey Lavallee, and extended the sensational Mark Hall to overtime at the Clash before falling just short. The pick here is for Milonas to win by decision. Team: Blair 18-3
152: Russ Parsons (Blair Academy) vs. Matt Van Curen (St. Edward)
Other than 106 this is one of two matches of the dual meet in which neither team presents a nationally ranked wrestler. That does not mean the match is unimportant, nor that the wrestlers here lack talent. Parsons is clearly the more consistent performer, as shown by top four placements at his three major tournaments season to date (fourth at the Ironman, second at the Beast, and champion at POWERade). In order to intelligently predict how Van Curen will perform in any match -- heck during any moment of the match -- one would need powers unknown to mankind. He has incomparable talent, as shown by throwing Felipe Martinez and Bo Jordan to their backs during matches over the years; however, more commonplace has been disappointment, as shown by two 0-2 state tournaments followed by failing to make the state tournament last year. These two wrestlers met in the quarterfinals at the Walsh Ironman, with Parsons winning 7-4. For the sake of sanity, let's pick a similar outcome this time around; however, the universe of possible outcomes is completely undefined. Team: Blair 21-3
160: Patrick Coover (Blair Academy) vs. Jacob Davis (St. Edward)
And this is the other match that does not feature a nationally ranked wrestler for either team; however, both wrestlers have strong resumes of success. Coover has placed in all three major tournaments this year -- seventh at Ironman, fifth at Beast, and fourth at POWERade; while Davis out-placed Coover at the Ironman with a sixth place finish, which included a semifinal appearance. Against common opponent Dylan Reel at the Ironman, Davis split matches (winning in the quarterfinal, losing for fifth place), while Coover suffered a 6-2 setback in consolation wrestling. The prediction here is for Davis to win a close decision; however, if Coover can pull the upset here, this would be an indication that things are not going to go anywhere close to St. Edward's way. Team: Blair 21-6
170: Jack Wedholm (Blair Academy) vs. No. 5 Mark Martin (St. Edward)
Wedholm did not wrestle for Blair at either the Ironman or the Beast of the East, but did place sixth at the POWERade after a season-ending injury to Addison Knepshield at the Beast of the East. Martin was champion at the Walsh Ironman this season, and was a Junior National freestyle All-American and FILA Junior National freestyle champion this past off-season. In the semifinal of the Walsh Ironman, Martin and Knepshield wrestled, with Martin earning a 10-2 major decision. Look for a similar type of outcome here, with fans of the Eagles hoping Martin can muster additional bonus with a pin. Team: Blair 21-10
182: Michael Mocco (Blair Academy) vs. No. 11 Domenic Abounader (St. Edward)
Though not known as a world-beater, Mocco has been solid for Blair this year going against a tough schedule, placing fourth at the Ironman, fifth at the Beast, and fourth at the POWERade. However, Abounader is on a different plane, having won state as a sophomore in 2011, being a two-time Cadet National freestyle All-American, and finishing as runner-up in this year's Walsh Ironman. When the two wrestlers met at the Ironman, Abounader earned a 7-1 semifinal victory. However, in last year's dual meet, Abounader was able to pin Mocco. In this match, Abounader is the clear favorite and looking for big bonus points; however, the prediction here will be a compromise of sorts, a major decision for Abounader. Team: Blair 21-14
195: No. 15 Frank Mattiace (Blair Academy) vs. No. 20 James Suvak (St. Edward)
Though this is a showdown of nationally ranked wrestlers, it is lower than one might think on the food chain of interest in this dual meet. Of course, that is a testament to how talented both squads truly are. Mattiace placed third at National Preps last year in the 189 pound weight class, while Suvak was third in Ohio's big-school division at 189. In last year's dual meet Mattiace was able to muster a victory, while at this year's Ironman, Mattiace was champion and Suvak third. Against common opponent Seth Calvert, Mattiace won by 6-1 decision with Suvak losing 4-0. The pick here is for Mattiace to replicate the decision from last year's dual meet, though St. Edward fans are marking down this as a match that can be reversed. Team: Blair 24-14
220: David Farr (Blair Academy) vs. No. 14 Ty Walz (St. Edward)
These two wrestlers met in the fifth place match at the Walsh Ironman, with Walz exiting as a 10-5 victor. Remember, that was coming off a disappointing afternoon session for Walz, as he lost an overtime match in the semifinals to A.J. Vizcarrando before being upset by Chalmer Freauf in the consolation semifinal (he avenged that loss to Freauf this past week). This past off-season, Walz was a FILA Cadet National freestyle runner-up and Junior National freestyle All-American. The pick here is for Walz to win the match by a convincing decision, while fans of St. Edward will be hoping for some sort of bonus points. Team: Blair 24-17
285: No. 1 Brooks Black (Blair Academy) vs. No. 4 Greg Kuhar/Joe Belford (St. Edward)
Kuhar was runner-up at the Ironman to Black, losing by 3-1 decision, and has never beaten Black when counting two prior in-season dual meets and multiple freestyle matches. This segment was going to be optimistic for Kuhar, as he came into the Ironman off only two weeks of practice from the football playoffs, and he just capped off a tremendous Clash, which included a 6-2 victory over Nick Nevills. However, he did not wrestle this past weekend at the State Duals, and there are questions to if he will wrestle on Saturday. Black is the obvious number one in the country, and has controlled/dominated opposition this year in winning the Ironman, Beast, and POWERade. If Black wrestles Kuhar, Black by decision; if it's Belford, Black by pin or major. Team: Blair 28-17
Final thoughts: As can be seen here, the on-paper matchups for Blair. However, the potential for bonus points resides more in the St. Edward camp. The dual meet as presented here was 9-5 in matches for Blair. If the Eagles can somehow flip a net total of two outcomes, I would favor them to win in a 7-7 match scenario. Of the fourteen predictions, I can see St. Edward reversing outcomes at 106, 120, 132, and/or 195; while I could see Blair reversing the outcome at 160. The unexpected always plays a critical dynamic in dual meet wrestling, as does momentum. Wrestling fans everywhere should look forward to an awesome dual meet in the early evening on Saturday, and one that should do high school wrestling proud.
Other details of the event:
Blair Academy will wrestle three preliminary pool matches against Framingham, Mass., Palisades, Pa., and Cedar Cliff, Pa. The Buccaneers can most certainly substitute liberally in those three dual meets and dominate the opposition. Two potential matches against Cedar Cliff could be somewhat relevant, though clearly Blair wins -- Grey against Chris Vassar at 132, and Preston against Max Good at 138.
St. Edward will wrestle three preliminary matches against Benton, Pa., Souderton, Pa., and No. 46 Bergen Catholic, N.J. Again, the Eagles can substitute liberally without problem and dominate. However, a couple of matches against Bergen Catholic could pique fan interest -- Bright against Connor Melde at 132, and Davis against No. 13 Johnny Sebastian at 160.
Assuming Blair wins their pool, they would face the winner of either Pool B or Pool C in a semifinal at 3:30 p.m. Pool B is anchored by Don Bosco Prep, N.J. -- featuring Beast of the East champion at 152 pounds, No. 17 Sal Mastriani; eighth place finisher at 195 Razohn Gross; and freshman sensation Zack Chakonis, who placed sixth at 220. Pool C could be won by either Timberlane, N.H., or Mifflinburg, Pa. Timberlane features 2009 Beast of the East champion Zach Bridson (112), while Mifflinburg features Cadet Greco-Roman All-American Cole Walter (120) and Super 32 placer Ty Walter (160).
Assuming St. Edward wins its pool, they would face the winner of either Pool D or Pool E in a semifinal at that same 3:30 p.m. time. Pool D is anchored by Germantown Academy, Pa., which features National Prep champion Chris Yankowich (138), Beast of the East third place finisher Nick Grossi (220), along with Ironman and Beast placer Chuck Boddy (285). Pool E is anchored by Northampton, Pa., which is led by two-time Beast of the East placer Jason Stephen (138).
Link to pools and schedule: http://www.nhsca.com/images/files/2012%20Festival%20Pools%20&%20Schedule.pdf
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