1. State tournament reorganizations mired with disagreement
Two of the major wrestling states have had a bit of change to the structure of their state tournaments for the 2014-15 season. Pennsylvania approved a change to expand brackets in the individual state tournaments to 20 wrestlers per weight, as opposed to 16. In Class AAA (big-school), it means that four wrestlers from each of the five regions will advance to the state; while in Class AA (small-school), six wrestlers each will make state in the southwest and southeast regionals, with four each making state in the northeast and northwest regions.
A full analysis and commentary of this structure change is an article in and of itself. Three major arguments against the change: (1) the addition of state qualifiers dilutes the tournament, and the concept of state qualification (2) the asymmetries already present within the state tournament brackets are exacerbated by this change (3) wrestling on the Thursday of the state tournament is going to start earlier and/or end later than it already does (9 a.m., 9 p.m.). The rationale for adding state qualifiers is pretty simple: more wrestlers get to compete in the state tournament, which makes more wrestlers feel accomplishment, engages more schools and stakeholders in the state tournament, and almost assuredly increases attendance.
While in New Jersey, the structure for their state dual meet tournament underwent change. Garden State football is known for its overkill when it comes to "state champions" -- a term that is technically inaccurate, as winning a state football title is actually only a championship within your given region of the state and enrollment classification. At least in wrestling, the geographic champions for a given group meet for an overall state title in each enrollment classification.
Prior to this year, in wrestling there were six team state champions, four for public schools and two for private schools. This year, there will be seven, with a fifth public school state champion added to the mix. One can see where the arguments reside in this debate as well. In addition, some more cynical people will say there is a political ingredient as well; however, the reclassification did not placate the complaining politician (Paulsboro remains in the same group with Bound Brook anyway, which was also the case last year).
2. Iowa 3A came down to the last match in 2013-14 ... Same this year?
In both the dual meet and individual state tournaments, the state championship was not yet decided when the last match took to the mat. In the case of the dual meet final, Bettendorf used pins in the last two matches of the dual meet (at 106 and 113) against Southeast Polk to win the title by 35-27 score. The Bulldogs won eight of the fourteen matches, which included an overtime decision at 182 pounds.
While in the individual tournament, Bettendorf led by a score of 162-to-158 headed into the 285 pound final, where a decision victory by the Rams' Jacob Marnin would have given Southeast Polk a share of the title; however, Kaleb Staack (Waverly-Shell Rock/South Dakota State) upended Marnin 3-1 to give the Bulldogs a sweep of the titles.
Despite finishing second in both tournaments, Southeast Polk enters the season ranked higher than Bettendorf in the national rankings. The Rams return 12 of the 14 wrestlers that competed in the state dual meet finals match, as well as 11 of their 12 state qualifiers, and every single individual state tournament point that they obtained. Bettendorf counters with 9 of 14 from that state dual meet finals lineup returning, along with 7 of 9 state qualifiers back in the lineup (the impact transfer of Dayton Racer in some ways compensates for the loss of state champion Logan Ryan, while the Bulldogs also graduated state 8th placer Michael Belanger).
Southeast Polk and Bettendorf do not have a common event on the schedule in December, while their only guaranteed common event prior to the state tournament is the Ed Winger Invitational at Urbandale on January 24. However, there is talk of a mid-January dual meet at Iowa State between the two squads, which is what happened last season as well.
3. Can somebody, anybody, beat Apple Valley in the state of Minnesota?
Apple Valley has won nine consecutive state dual meet state titles in the big-school division, Class AAA (though the 2013 state final was actually a tie with St. Michael-Albertville); as well as 15 of the last 16. Even with the Eagles having a pair of national No. 1-ranked wrestlers in Mark Hall (170) and Bobby Steveson (195), there is a thought that this year's team is susceptible to being knocked off. The thought being that the rest of the lineup doesn't have its traditional firepower. However, much more will be known about the exact nature of the Eagles' lineup after their opening week dual meet against Prior Lake, as well as after the Minnesota Christmas Tournament two weekends later.
Fellow Fab 50 member St. Michael-Albertville is considered the primary challenge to Apple Valley, and they will be led by defending state champion Mitch McKee (126) along with 2013 state champion Jordan Joseph (182). The other primary contender in the state dual meet tournament will be whichever team advances out of Section 2 between Prior Lake and Shakopee; Prior Lake is led by their upperweights in Rylee Streifel (220) and Alex Hart (285), while Shakopee is anchored by nationally ranked Owen Webster (160), state champion Brent Jones (120) and InterMat JJ Classic champion Alex Lloyd (126).
4. The rest of Pennsylvania Class AA rejoices as Bethlehem Catholic chooses to move up to Class AAA
Winners in more or less a dominant fashion of the last three individual and four dual meet state titles in Class AA (small-school), Bethlehem Catholic has chosen to move up to Class AAA (big-school). For that, the rest of Class AA is more than thankful.
Southern Columbia is the obvious expected beneficiary in the Class AA individual tournament. They return three state runners-up from last season's squad, Todd Lane (132), Kent Lane (145), and Blake Marks (152); and add via transfer another state runner-up in Billy Barnes (152). Without anything else, replicating four state runner-up finishes would net 75 or so state tournament points, and in all likelihood a state title.
From the standpoint of the team tournament, things are much more wide open. In fact, Southern Columbia -- fourth in last year's individual tournament -- did not earn one of the two state dual meet tournament qualifying spots out of District 4. Multiple teams will be in the hunt for the dual meet title in Class AA. Lead contenders include Boiling Springs (District 3), Brookville (District 9), Burrell (District 7), along with Fort LeBoeuf and Reynolds (District 10).
5. Does Bethlehem Catholic become an immediate state title contender in Pennsylvania Class AAA?
In the individual tournament, not only is the answer "no" ... It's "hell no." Franklin Regional won last year's Class AAA title with 119 points, which happens to be tied for second most in the 12 years Pennsylvania has had fourteen weight class (Northampton in 2004 scored 132.5, while Central Dauphin also scored 119 back in 2009). Six Panthers wrestlers finished inside the top three of the state tournament. One month before, Franklin Regional earned the dual meet title as well. This year's edition features five of those wrestlers returning -- Devin Brown (113), Spencer Lee (120), Michael Kemerer (145), Josh Maruca (152), and Josh Shields (160). Given a similar performance track, that's 100 points for the Panthers, a mark that has only been reached five times in the last 12 years.
However, the dual meet tournament is much more open-ended. Though it is not a total "stars and scrubs" model, there is a clear drop from the top five to the rest of the Franklin Regional roster. From the standpoint of state qualification, only Gus Solomon (126) is a viable contender -- but some of that can be attributed to the climate within the WPIAL meet.
Challengers to the Panthers start within the WPIAL (i.e. District 7) with nationally ranked Belle Vernon Area and Greater Latrobe in the area, along with a pesky North Allegheny squad; three of those four will qualify for state (two directly to Thursday, one to an earlier in the week "play-in" match). There are two other nationally ranked teams within Class AAA, and both could upend Franklin Regional at the dual meet state tournament: Bethlehem Catholic (District 11) and Cumberland Valley (District 3).
Justin Mejia of Clovis was a state champion last season, and is ranked No. 3 in the country at 113 pounds by InterMat (Photo/John Sachs, Tech-Fall.com)Clovis is the four-time defending state champions in the single-class state tournament, and are the flagship program in California wrestling with 12 state titles in the just over 40 years a state tournament has been held. They'll enter the season favored for a five-peat, which would add to their record for most consecutive state titles, led by defending state champion Justin Mejia (113). Three-time state placer Isaiah Hokit (145) leads five other wrestlers with a past state placement finish, and ten others with a past state tournament appearance. That strength up-and-down the lineup makes them a supreme team.
All that said, there are three other top 30 teams in the Golden State this year, which will make the drive for five by no means a coronation. Archrival Buchanan matches Clovis wrestler-for-wrestler in terms of state tournament experience, though only three have a state placement finish during their careers, led by two-time state placer Durbin Lloren (126). Poway brings eight wrestlers with state tournament experience to their lineup, three whom have placed at state, led by state champion Colt Doyle (170) and two-time state placer Ralphy Tovar (145). Bakersfield counters with six state tournament experience wrestlers, including a pair of state placers in Navonte Demison (113) and Carlos Herrera (120), along with another pair of Fargo All-Americans in the lineup.
7. Non-public domination in New Jersey
As many know, the New Jersey individual state tournament is unscored from a team standpoint, so determination of the best teams in the Garden State come solely through the dual meet tournament. Five teams which compete in NJSIAA competition (No. 1 Blair Academy does not) start the year in the Fab 50.
Bound Brook (Group 1, smallest classification) and Phillipsburg (Group 4, second biggest) are public; while St. Peter's Prep, Bergen Catholic, and Don Bosco Prep are all in Non-Public Group A. Furthermore, all three of these top 20 teams in the country are in the North section of Non-Public Group A, which pretty much means the Non-Public Group A champion will be determined before the championship match on Sunday, February 15. During that week, the semifinal and final involving those three schools and Delbarton will be a worthwhile follow. The four non-public squads also compete in multiple common events (Beast of the East, along with dual meet matches) prior to the North A semifinal and final rounds.
8. Will Massillon Perry head coach Dave Riggs retire as a repeat state champion in Ohio Division I?
News broke last week in the Canton Repository last week that the 2014-15 season will be the last for Dave Riggs as head coach at Massillon Perry. Riggs is retiring as a teacher, and also head coach, after a long career at the high school; one that has seen the program emerge as a state and national power. The Panthers have produced 27 individual state champions, which is tenth most in Ohio history, with all of them coming since 1989; most notably NCAA Division I champions Dustin Schlatter and Steve Luke.
However, it had taken until last year for Massillon Perry to earn a maiden state title, as St. Edward stood in their way on a perennial basis. The Panthers swept championships in both the dual meet, including a win over St. Edward during the semis, and individual tournaments. The individual tournament saw them advance seven wrestlers to the state championship match, three winning titles; ten wrestlers in all placed, as they scored 185 points to more than double second place.
In 2014-15 season, Massillon Perry enters the season as slight favorites to repeat as champion in both tournaments, with the dual meet tournament having more potential for a tightly contested event. The other primary challengers are follow nationally ranked squads in St. Edward and Brecksville. Leading the way for the Panthers will be returning state runners-up Jake Newhouse (120); Jose Rodriguez (126), who did win a state title in 2013; and Nick Steed (145).
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