Kyle Dake at the 2020 Olympic Trials (Photo courtesy of Tony Rotundo; WrestlersAreWarriors.com)Wrestling odds for the Olympic Games in Tokyo are posted on several sites including Draft Kings, Fan Duel and Barstool Sportsbook. For the purposes of this article I used Barstools' the same logic applies to any similar set of odds on other books.
Keep in mind that the American fans have drastically altered lines from their original open. For instance, Gable Steveson was +1100 and is now down to +200. Pay attention to the giant swings and check on updated lines often as plays - particularly for foreigners - became more enticing.
Here's my top plays.
Men's Freestyle
57 KG Best Bet - Zaur Uguev (RUS) -112
Uguev has owned this weight and is worth the price. I'd put a couple hundo on it. He won Yarygin in '17 and '18 and SR Worlds in '18 and '19. He's only lost twice during that time frame which is about as consistent as you get at 57kg in freestyle. He's not a lock because nothing at 57 is ever a lock (which the odds reflect because he's a massive favorite and a real value at almost even money.
57 KG Long Money - Nurislam Sanayev (KAZ) +2300
He's prone to take a loss here and there but he was Silver in '18 to Uguev and Bronze in '19 (to Atli) and with those odds: ten bucks to win $230, I'm in.
65 KG Best Bet - Rashidov (RUS) +100
I know. Boring pick. Rashidov has survived some scares but he's been one of the most consistent wrestlers in the World getting Silver at 61kg at Worlds in both '17 and '18 before moving up and winning the monster bracket at 65kg in 2019. He's susceptible, but he's the favorite for sure. I also like the fact that he's on the other side of the bracket from Bajrang (IND / +325). Having a day to scout benefits Rashidov more than Bajrang, in my opinion.If you feel differently, Bajrang is a great value as well at that price. I have to tell you though, both paths are scary. The way the bracket is set up, Rashidov has to get past Muszukajev (HUN / +700) in his semi and Bajrang will have Niyazbekov (KAZ / +1500). Last time these guys met, Rashidov beat Musz 3-2 and Niyazbekov beat Bajrang 9-9.
65 KG Long Money - Haji Aliev (AZE) +1500
He's getting old but he's still the filthiest wrestler in the world with a bag of tricks that awe you. He was Bronze in Rio and won Worlds in '17 but didn't medal at the next two Worlds. However in '19 he gave Rashidov all he could handle. Many would tell you he got hosed in that bout. I would also recommend Niyazbekov at the same price.
74 KG Best Bet - Kyle Dake (USA) - 125
I almost went with Chamizo here. But let's not get cute. Chamizo is the best value. But Dake is going to win. He's just too good and too smart.
74 KG Long Money - Frank Chamizo (ITA) +700
Ok so this isn't really a long shot as Chamizo is the third lowest price but +700? Look, I don't think he can beat Dake but Chamizo is the #1 seed so there's a chance he sees NO ONE that can go with him until the finals. Sidakov is the 3-seed. If Dake is on Sidakov's side, Chamizo walks to the finals. Chamizo at +700 to win one match? Sign me up.
86 KG Best Bet - Pick Your Poison - David Taylor (USA) -150 or Hassan Yazdani (IRI) +150
We've seen how this match goes - twice. Yazdani threatens early, DT grinds him into a pulp late. That being said, it's not a layup, and it's not a foregone conclusion. And then there is the draw. Yaz is the #1 seed which may or may not mean something depending where David gets drawn in. This is one spot where you pick who you think wins out of just two guys and bet a few units on it. I.E. if you think David beats Yaz, lay $450 or $600.
86 KG Long Money - No One
There's no one, at any price, that I would risk money on to win the Olympics over DT or Yaz.
97 KG Best Bet - Abdulrashid Sadulaev (RUS / -286)
Sadulaev has made the finals at the last 8 Worlds/OLY's he's wrestled in. And he won 7 of 8. He's the biggest betting favorite in all of Olympic wrestling this year. And the price isn't prohibitive. Laying $900 to win $300 isn't very scary. He's the top seed with Mohammadian (IRI / +400) on the opposite side as the 2. The only other guy you have to worry about is Kyle Snyder (USA / +450) who will be drawn in. It's possible that the most dominant wrestler on the planet has to see just one guy that's in his galaxy (if there is one) on his quest for another OLY Gold.
97 KG Long Money - No One
Snyder has proven he can beat anyone (including Sadulaev). But are you picking it? I get going with it as a believer and an American fan. But that's it. If you bet on any other human to beat Sadulaev...
125 KG Best Bet - Geno Petriashvili (GEO / +145)
Hold up. Geno, the winner of the last three World titles, is PLUS money?! WTF? Yes Taha has beaten him as recently as April of 2019 (at Euros), but Geno has made it clear that at this point he's the guy.
Two of his last three titles went directly through Taha - he beat him in the finals in two of them. And in 2018 he beat the guy who beat him. They are on opposite sides of the bracket as the #1 and #3 seeds with only Gable as a possible threat.
125 KG Long Money - Gable Steveson (USA / +200)
I really don't want to write this. Listing Gable as a good bet seems...I don't know...disrespectful to Geno and Taha who have been staples in World and Olympic finals. Gable just now made his first SR team. Frankly, Gable and Taha at the same price is lunacy. Gable's opening line was over +1000 and the American betting public bet the crap out of it to drop it to its current figure.
That all being said, I'm 100% convinced Gable can go with these guys. But 'go with' and 'beat everyone in the field' are two different things. I'm not ready to lay money on it - Gable's never (ever. ever, ever, ever) wrestled guys as good as Geno and Taha. But he's also the only guy in the field outside of those two that's worth betting on.
Other Plays In GR and WFS I Like
WFS 50 KG Best Bet - Yui Susaki (JPN +125)
2019 World Champ Maryia Stadnik (AZE / -112) is the favorite and hasn't lost since the 2018 World finals to...
Susaki. Who has never lost! Ever! In international competition.
WFS 53 KG Long Money - Jacarra Winchester (USA +900)
I don't get the odds at this weight. Vinesh Phogat (IND / +100) is the favorite and she's largely unproven. She's never won a World Championship at any age level and doesn't have an extensive hit list.
Enter Jacarra who is the reigning World Champ coming down a weight. Yes, she's lost to Sofia Mattsson (at DeGlane) but +900 is absurd and I'm all over it.
WFS 57 KG Best Bet - Risako Kawai (JPN -125)
This is a sort of 'next topic' situation and this price is way too low. Jump on it.
WFS 62 KG Best Bet - Aisuluu Tynybekova (KGZ + 125)
The reigning World Champ and top price is plus money. I thought she was the most outstanding wrestler of the women's field at 2019 Worlds. It's no easy path. This weight is loaded. And she'll have Yukako Kawai (JPN +300) in the semi's. Kawai is the only human to beat Tynybekova in two years. But the value is nice.
GR 60 KG Best Bet - Kenchiro Fumita (JPN -125)
Won two SR Worlds and one U23 Worlds since '17.
GR 67 KG Best Bet - Ismael Borrero (CUB -286)
He's the P4P Greco king. Read what I wrote about Sadulaev above.
GR 77 KG Best Bet - Aleksandr Chekhirkin (RUS +300)
The tournament favorite is 2019 World Champion Tamas Lorincz (HUN / -143). But he's wrestled four tournaments since that time and lost in two of them. I like Chekhirkin with that price.
GR 130 KG Best Bet - Mijain Lopez (CUB) +150
The greatest Greco wrestler ever? At plus money? He may be long in the tooth. He may have been inactive recently. And Riza Kayaalp (TUR / -250) has beaten him before. But still. He's a GOAT and he's plus money in what might be his last competition ever.
GR 130 KG Long Money - Sergey Semenov (RUS) +1500
I think this weight is a two horse race with Mijain and Riza. But crazier things have happened. Mijain will be unseeded, which means he could be on the same side of the bracket as Riza, with a real possibility of Semenov avoiding both of them before the finals. Semenov went 0-1 at Worlds in 2019 but that was the single time he hadn't medaled in a major event dating back to 2015. He took Bronze at the Rio Olympics losing only to Mijain in the semi's. He's only lost three times in the five years since.
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