Prediction: No. 1 Matt McDonough (Iowa) over No. 2 Zach Sanders (Minnesota)
133: The 133-pound weight class has been one of the most talked about weight classes all season. Oklahoma State's Jordan Oliver took a surprise loss to Iowa's Tony Ramos in front of a hostile crowd at Carver-Hawkeye Arena on Jan. 7. A day later, Ohio State's Logan Stieber, ranked No. 2 at the time, dropped a match to a hungry Chris Dardanes of Minnesota in Minneapolis. Since then, both Oliver and Stieber have separated themselves from the pack. The two met at a National Duals regional in February, with Oliver coming out on top 7-3. The match was tied 2-2 with 90 seconds remaining before Oliver pulled away late. Stieber was in on some shots in the match, but could not convert those shots to takedowns. Oliver racked up almost three minutes of riding time in that match. The match could not have played out much worse for Stieber. It didn't help that it was on Jordan Oliver's home arena either. There will no home mat advantage on Saturday night. I expect Stieber to win the takedown battle, use his top game more to his advantage, and avenge his loss to Oliver.
Prediction: No. 2 Logan Stieber (Ohio State) over No. 1 Jordan Oliver (Oklahoma State)
141: Michigan's Kellen Russell has turned his wrestling up a notch this season with Donny Pritzlaff and Sean Bormet now on the Wolverine coaching staff, and several top senior level freestyle wrestlers at his disposal. Russell is coming off arguably the best match of his college wrestling career -- a 7-3 victory over Iowa's Montell Marion in the Big Ten finals. Russell was aggressive throughout the match and scored three takedowns off a single leg. I see Cal Poly's Boris Novachkov coming out of the bottom side of the bracket as the sixth seed to set up a rematch of last year's NCAA finals match. The two also met earlier this season in the consolation semifinals at the Cliff Keen Las Vegas Invitational, with Russell coming out on top in tiebreaker.
Prediction: No. 1 Kellen Russell (Michigan) over No. 6 Boris Novachkov (Cal Poly)
149: Penn State's Frank Molinaro and Oklahoma State's Jamal Parks are the top two seeds. Both are undefeated. Molinaro was untested at the Big Tens, picking up bonus points in all three of his matches. Parks has a likely second-round match against a dangerous unseeded wrestler in Mario Mason of Rutgers, who has beaten several quality wrestlers throughout his career, including Molinaro, Dylan Alton of Penn State, and Ganbayar Sanjaa of American. I like Parks to sneak past Mason, but I think Parks' run ends when he meets a red-hot Tyler Nauman of Pitt in the semifinals. Nauman, a senior, earned All-American honors in 2010, which included a quarterfinal victory over Parks. Molinaro will be too much for Nauman in the finals. Molinaro and Nauman met last month, with Molinaro getting the 5-2 victory. I expect a similar result when they meet in the NCAA finals.
Prediction: No. 1 Frank Molinaro (Penn State) over No. 6 Tyler Nauman (Pitt)
157: I know better than to pick against Cornell's Kyle Dake at the NCAAs. He has been dominant this season, and what's scary is that he seems to perform at an even higher level at the NCAAs. Dake will likely see another EIWA wrestler in the semifinals -- either Harvard's Walter Peppelman or American's Ganbayar Sanjaa. Dake defeated Peppelman, 3-0, to win the EIWA title. Dake has not faced Sanjaa this season, but did defeat Sanjaa at last year's NCAAs, 4-0. St. John, an NCAA fourth-place finisher a year ago as a freshman, has battled a serious knee injury all season, and there was a point this season when many thought his season was done. Very few gave St. John a chance when he entered the Big Tens as the No. 6 seed. But the Hawkeye sophomore went on a spectacular (and unlikely) run, showing tremendous heart, to win the Big Ten title, which included a victory over Northwestern's Jason Welch in the finals. The match was a barnburner, with St. John scoring a last-second takedown to win. If the two meet again in the NCAA semifinals, expect another tight match that could go either way. I'm taking Welch to come out of the bottom side to face Dake in the finals. But Dake won't be denied in the finals. After Saturday night he will have three NCAA titles in three different weight classes.
Prediction: No. 1 Kyle Dake (Cornell) over No. 3 Jason Welch (Northwestern)
165: There's not much I can say about Penn State's David Taylor that has not already been said. I was at Iowa State during the Cael era, and what Taylor is doing now is very similar to what Cael was doing as a collegiate competitor. He crushes everyone. It has gotten to the point where if Taylor doesn't get bonus points, people want to know if there is something wrong with him. Taylor is relentless and can score so many different ways. There are some very talented wrestlers in this weight class, but none are on Taylor's level. Maryland's Josh Asper was ranked No. 2 (behind Taylor) heading into the postseason, but suffered an overtime loss to Virginia Tech's Peter Yates, and slid to the No. 7 seed. I like Asper to bounce back from his ACC tournament loss and come out of the bracket, where he will get a crack at Taylor in the NCAA finals. But this is Taylor's weight class, and I expect him to get bonus points in every match this week, including his NCAA finals match.
Prediction: No. 1 David Taylor (Penn State) over No. 7 Josh Asper (Maryland)
174: This might be the most intriguing of the 10 weight classes because it includes three undefeated wrestlers: Penn State's Ed Ruth, Oklahoma State's Chris Perry, and Stanford's Nick Amuchastegui. It's hard to pick against any of these three because they all have been dominant this season. Ruth and Perry get the most attention because they wrestle for top programs in power conferences, but Amuchastegui is the highest returning NCAA finisher in the weight class. He topped Ruth in the NCAA quarterfinals last season en route to finishing as NCAA runner-up to Iowa State's Jon Reader. I'm taking Amuchastegui to cap off a remarkable collegiate wrestling career with wins over two previously unbeaten wrestlers, and give Stanford coach Jason Borrelli his first NCAA champion.
Prediction: No. 3 Nick Amuchastegui (Stanford) over No. 1 Ed Ruth (Penn State)
184: There are eight wrestlers capable of winning NCAA titles in this weight class, which will make for a very interesting quarterfinal round. Last season it was Quentin Wright who caught fire in March and won the NCAA title as the No. 9 seed. This season Wright comes in as the No. 6 seed after finishing third at the Big Tens. For Wright to reach the NCAA finals again, he will likely have to get past No. 3 Ben Bennett of Central Michigan and No. 2 Robert Hamlin of Lehigh. I like him to get past Bennett in the quarterfinals, but not past the Vermonster in the semifinals. Hamlin has a gaudy 61-4 record over the past two seasons. The top side of the bracket has four returning All-Americans, with Wyoming's Joe LeBlanc being the top seed. I'm taking Cornell's Steve Bosak to come out of the top side of the bracket with a win over LeBlanc in the semifinals, avenging a loss in the Cliff Keen Las Vegas Invitational finals in early December. That will set up an EIWA finals rematch between Hamlin and Bosak. It will be the sixth meeting between the two over the past two seasons. All five meetings have been either one or two-point matches. Hamlin won all three meetings between the two last season. The two have split two matches this season, with Hamlin winning the most recent meeting in the EIWA finals. I like Hamlin to win and become the first Vermont native to win an NCAA Division I wrestling title.
Prediction: No. 2 Robert Hamlin (Lehigh) over No. 4 Steve Bosak (Cornell)
197: All season it appeared that Cornell's Cam Simaz and Edinboro's Chris Honeycutt were destined to meet in the NCAA finals. Both were dominant during the regular season. Two weeks ago Simaz cruised to his fourth EIWA title, while Honeycutt took a surprise loss in the EWL finals to Pitt's Matt Wilps, a wrestler Honeycutt had beaten twice this season. I don't see anyone stopping Simaz on the top side of the bracket. I see the bottom side of the bracket being up for grabs, with three or four wrestlers capable of reaching the NCAA finals. Call it a gut feeling, but I'm taking Missouri's Brent Haynes to come out of the bottom side of the bracket despite a recent loss in the Big 12 finals and a lopsided 14-4 loss to Honeycutt earlier this season. Haynes is a monster on the mat ... and if gets on a roll he will be tough to beat. But Simaz will be one getting his hand raised on Saturday night.
Prediction: No. 1 Cam Simaz (Cornell) over No. 6 Brent Haynes (Missouri)
285: Returning NCAA finalists Ryan Flores of American and Zack Rey of Lehigh entered the postseason ranked No. 1 and No. 2 respectively. They met in the EIWA finals, with Flores coming out on top in overtime. Rey, a returning NCAA champion, comes in as the No. 4 seed, and a meeting with top-seeded Flores in the semifinals seems likely. I'm taking Rey to avenge his recent loss to Flores and reach the finals against No. 2 Tony Nelson of Minnesota. Rey has been on the elevated mat before and knows how to get it done when it counts.
Prediction: No. 4 Zack Rey (Lehigh) over No. 2 Tony Nelson (Minnesota)
Top Five Teams:
1. Penn State
2. Minnesota
3. Iowa
4. Cornell
5. Oklahoma State
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