Projecting 2024 Big Ten Seeds

Sunday marked the final day of Big Ten competition for the 2023-24 season. While there’s still another week left in the regular season, we can still speculate on the all-important Big Ten seeding. Below we’ve posted our educated guesses on the preseeds, along with an explanation or identification of some potential seeding messes. Each picture with the seed has the Big Ten wins and losses for each wrestler. 125 Nationally, this weight has been a mess! It’s been quite chaotic in the B1G, as well. The easy part is Matt Ramos up top - after that it gets wild. Drake Ayala gets the #2 because of wins over three of the top four contenders for the second spot. After having that framework in place, the seeds sorta fall in line after that. Some of the results that make this weight difficult are Michael DeAugustino over Ayala and Dean Peterson over Patrick McKee. McKee’s wins over two others possibly in line for the #3 give him the edge. 133 Iowa’s decision between Cullan Schriever and Brody Teske could shake up some seeds at this weight. Should Teske go, Tony Madrigal only has one loss against wrestlers in this field. There’s a case to be made that Madrigal could be over Van Dee based on his head-to-head win and conference record. We have Schriever in and he has the win over Madrigal. The Van Dee win puts Madrigal over Braxton Brown here, though maybe a coaches ranking coach boosts Brown past Madrigal in the actual seeds. 141 Though Real Woods is above Jesse Mendez in the national rankings, I’d be shocked if Woods gets seeded over Mendez. Both have a loss to Beau Bartlett; however, Woods has the loss to Sergio Lemley. Six and seven between Danny Pucino and Mitch Moore ultimately came down to Jordan Hamdan. Pucino beat him and Moore fell to him. Hamden is also in a group of guys between 9-11 that have all exchanged wins with each other. Hamdan gets the edge here because of his number of conference wins. 149 There may be some discussion about numbers two and three with Austin Gomez and Caleb Rathjen. Both have similar conference records. I believe national rankings and quality of conference wins (and if past accomplishments are factored in) will give Gomez the edge. Another debate could be at 7 and 8 with Joe Zargo and Graham Rooks. Rooks has the history on his side and a better national ranking; however, Zargo has a better conference record and maybe a slightly better “best win” comparing Drew Roberts to Michael Cetta. 157 Right off the bat, the big question is what do you do with Brayton Lee? Lee has been used extremely sparingly this season with only five matches heading into the final week of the season. But, he does have wins over Will Lewan and Joey Blaze? Is that small sample size enough to push him past Jared Franek, who has three conference losses? One of those losses came to Lewan, so we’re putting Lee in the third slot. Another question is what to do with Chase Saldate? Saldate only has one B1G loss and it isn’t a bad one (Haines), but no wins over anyone in contention for a top-eight seed. Does that give him position over Blaze/Robb/Lewan? 165 Perhaps the area I spent the most brain cells on was the 6-8 range at 165 lbs. You have Bryce Hepner, a good national ranking and a winning B1G record. His losses are to the probable top-two seeds, which are fine; however, he lacks signature wins. Behind him is Cam Amine. He has no 2023-24 wins over anyone in the field. He’s lost to the wrestlers we’ve slotted in at four and five. Then there’s Stoney Buell. Buell has traded wins with Antrell Taylor, one of the wrestlers who’s beaten Amine. Buell also has a win over another guy in that 5-9 range (Tyler Lillard). It will be fascinating to see how the seeding committee views Amine. He’s a three-time All-American and past conference finalist. If healthy, he could be a finalist. Now, should the seeds hammer Amine and put him in the eighth slot….he could have top-seeded Dean Hamiti in the quarters. The same Hamiti he’s 3-0 career against. If you’re just looking at resumes from 2023-24 blind, without any human input, Amine is probably the eighth. Maybe national ranking, human input, and past credentials boost Amine all the way to six. 174 I think the top five is relatively straightforward here. There may be some discussion about six and seven with Max Maylor and Jackson Turley. Turley has the better conference record, but Maylor is above him in the rankings. Another interesting seed to watch is Donnell Washington. He only has two conference wins and a loss to DJ Shannon. And Shannon’s win over Washington is his only conference victory. 184 After the top two, things get messy at 184 lbs. I imagine most people would expect Bernie Truax to get the third seed and there’s the possibility that he does. His loss via pin to Ryder Rogotzke muddies the waters in a big way. Everyone in that three-through-nine range has at least one loss that complicates matters. A better conference record, more quality wins, and a better ranking could ultimately push Truax past Rogotzke. 197 Numbers two through four are the ones to watch at 197 lbs. Both Jaxon Smith and Zach Glazier have one conference loss, both are to Aaron Brooks. Glazier has more conference wins and two (three) that are of higher quality than any of Smith’s (Silas Allred and Garrett Joles x2). That leads me to think Glazier gets the edge over Smith. The defending conference champ, Allred, trails Smith in conference winning percentage and national ranking, so he slots in at number four. Luke Geog and Joles is another one that could go either way. Joles may have an ever-so-slight edge in quality wins, but Geog has a better conference record. 285 The first three at 285 lbs are pretty straightforward. After that, it gets really tricky. Luke Luffman has no conference matches and hasn’t wrestled since the Midlands. He’s been hurt and there’s a chance that he may not wrestle in the postseason. If he does, where does he go? The group of Seth Nevills, Yaraslau Slavikouski, and Nick Willham have exchanged wins with each other. Slavikouski traditionally has the higher ranking, but not many quality wins or a great conference record. Two other ranked wrestlers at this weight, Bradley Hill and Bennett Tabor, have not met and generally have similar resumes for seeding purposes. Hill gets the nod here due to his conference record.

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Projecting 2024 Big Ten Seeds

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