Date: March 7, 2009
Venue: Nationwide Arena (Columbus, Ohio)
Saturday night brings another UFC event to Columbus, Ohio. Let's take a look at the card.
Quinton "Rampage" JacksonFor Jardine to win, he will need to be persistent and relentless with his kicks, as he was against the Iceman, effectively keeping his opponent away. I don't see that happening, as I think Rampage will unleash his fury early and end the bounty-hunter's night early with a second-round KO, as he positions himself once again for a UFC title shot. Take JACKSON and lay the juice @-320. The public is pounding the favorite and driving the betting line upward.
In an interesting match-up of heavyweight sluggers, Shane CARWIN (10-0) is the very popular underdog with a perfect record, ending each of his fights in the very first round! His mission will be to show if he is ready for the likes of one Gabriel "Napao" GONZAGA (10-3), who is best known for decapitating Mirko Cro-Crop with a vicious kick to the head. This is a real matchup of crowd-pleasing fighters. And, this one ain't going to the judges scorecards!
Though Carwin is known as a powerful wrestler, he usually stands and brawls. Gonzaga's best shot is on the ground where his far superior jiu-jitsu skills will take over. Take GONZAGA @ -170 to win by second- round submission by rear-naked choke.
Two fighters fighting to stay in the UFC are matched up in a questionable main card appearance. Welterweight, Matt BROWN (11-7), brings an aggressive, well-rounded fight game to the octagon. He seems to be in every fight, but wins only slightly more than he loses. Same with his opponent, Pete "Drago" SELL (8-5), another brawler who likes to push the pace. This fight should have lots of action. Take BROWN as a slight underdog @ +115 to do enough to win a close decision.
In what is a wrestler's dream, rising UFC newcomer, and former NCAA Division I national wrestling champion Mark "The Philippine Wrecking Machine" MUNOZ (5-0) meets Matt "The Hammer" HAMILL (7-2) in a light-heavyweight battle. Hamill opened as a -250 favorite, but the public quickly bet on Munoz, who still stands at a tempting +140 underdog.
I like Hamill's experience and improved striking techniques, but I also like the value offered with Munoz, and the fact that he is seen by Dana White as a quick and rising star in order to get main card exposure like this. A win over Hamill would go a long way towards rewarding that confidence. Take MUNOZ @ +140 to upset Matt Hamill with a shocking chicken-wing-to-a-pin move that leads to a third-round ground-and-pound TKO.
Former Michigan State All-American, lightweight Gray MAYNARD (7-0-1) brings his undefeated record into the Octagon to be tested by Jim MILLER (13-1). The answer to tonight's winner can be found in Frankie Edgar, whose only loss was to Maynard, and who also gave Miller his only loss! If form holds true. Maynard will use his brute strength to overpower a feisty Miller who will be frantically looking for submission holds to end his misery. Take MAYNARD @ -165 to beat Miller by second-round armbar submission.
On the undercard:
Take welterweight Tamden "the Barncat" McCRORY (11-2) @ -290 to use his lanky body and reach advantage to frustrate UFC newcomer, Ryan "the Lion" MADIGAN (5-0). If he doesn't get his 1st round KO, he will end it in the second- round with a guillotine choke submission.
Take middleweight, Kendall "Da Spyder" GROVE @ -185 to also use his distance advantage to score a decision over Jason "Dooms" DAY (17-6).
Take light-heavyweight Brandon "The Truth" VERA (9-3), @ -500 to put his opponent, Michael PATT (15-3), away early with some vicious Muay Thai knees to the head. This is my one "bridge jump" play of the night.
Take Big Tim "The Barbarian" BOETSCH (8-2) @ -130 to shove Jason BRITZ (16-1-1) against the cage and unload his relentless arsenal of fists and elbows to score a first-round KO of his startled opponent.
… and take energetic and experienced Aaron RILEY (27-10-1) @ -200 to outscore an overmatched Shane NELSON (12-3) and win a decision.
So, now let's put our handicapping to the test and see what we can do with our "fictitious" $1000 bankroll … ready?
Let's go big on Rampage Jackson. We'll lay $192 to win $ 60. Easy money.
Lay $102 to win $60 on Gabriel Gonzaga.
Let's lay $70 to win $98 on Mark Munoz.
Let's lay $40 to win $46 on Matt Brown.
Let's lay $99 to win $60 on Gray Maynard.
Lay $116 to win $40 on Barncat McCrory.
Lay $111 to win $60 on Kendall Grove.
Lay $ 65 to win $50 on Tim Boetsch.
Lay $100 to win a Jackson ($20) on Brandon Vera's bridge jump.
Lay $100 to win $50 on Aaron Riley.
That's it. In summary, we are laying $995 to win $544.
Let's donate the remaining $5 and our winnings to our local youth wrestling programs!
Enjoy the fights. I know I will.
More later.
The UFC Monster
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