Venue: Bell Centre, Montreal, Canada
Tonight's UFC 83 card has an amazing 11 fights on it, the biggest UFC card ever. And, in a sport where upsets often happen, and a fight can change direction in a heartbeat, the main event is a revenge match from one of the biggest upsets in UFC history. Welterweight phenom, Georges ST. PIERRE, will try to trade in his interim belt for the real deal. His opponent is the brash, cocky, New Yorker, Matt "The Terror" SERRA, who exploded with a surprising KO of GSP in the evry first round in UFC 69, a year ago. A back injury has prevented Serra from defending his crown. Tonight he loses it to perhaps the most dominating fighter in the UFC, outside of Anderson "Spider" SILVA. GSP will be fighting in front of a hometown, rabid, Canadian, sell-out crowd. I see this fight be the reverse mirror image of the last one. GSP -450 wins with a first-round TKO, a battering pounding of fists and elbows leaving Serra pondering his future. Serra has never been knocked out, until tonight! I'm bridge-jumping with GSP.
Middleweight Rich "Ace" FRANKLIN has dominated everyone in the UFC (except Anderson SILVA), and has made a small fortune doing it. His opponent, Travis LUTTER, is fighting to stay in the UFC with a much-needed victory in his sight. Lutter will try to take the fight to the ground where he owns submission skills advantage. Franklin with try to keep the fight standing, and end it with a round-house punch or awesome side kick. I'd make the Franklin the favorite, too. But, I'll go to the mat with Travis as a big 'dog @+270. A dog fighting for his life, is a very dangerous dog! Lutter shocks the world with a third-round triangle choke of the former champion.
As we continue our search for undervalued underdogs, we find middleweight Kalib STARNES @+230 fighting Nate QUARRY, a somewhat one-dimensional fighter with severe punching power and a strong determination to never quit. Both fighters have struggled through injuries, and re-opening a deep cut from Starnes' last fight is still a concern. I've never been a big fan of Quarry's. Franklin cold-cocked him, and he should have lost to Chris Leben, as well. I have a feeling Starnes may offer a submission surprise tonight. I'll go with Kalib to win with a second-round near-naked choke.
Englishman heavyweight Michael BISPING is overated in my opinion. Matt "The Hammer" Hamill dominated him in a hometown favoring decision for Bisping. And, wrestler Rashad EVANS took him apart, and exposed his weaknesses. Tonight Bisping drops down to the middleweight division where he hopes his punching power will hold up better. It may, but I like the chances of another big 'dog, Charles McCARTHY @+280, who hasn't fought in over a year, but owns all 10 of his wins by submission! We have a puncher vs. a submission master here. If this gets to the mat, my man wins … I think it does. McCarthy wins by second-round armbar submission.
And, in the remaining main card event, in a relatively obscure heavyweight match, TUF fighter Maac DANZIG tries to take out challenger Mark BOCEK. The oddsmakers give Bocek little chance @ +375. But, the UFC Monster likes the chances of a wrestler again going to the mat with a puncher. My underdog parade continues with a surprising second-round submission by rear-naked choke by Bocek. Strange things often happen in the UFC.
That makes for four (4) underdogs and one (1) favorite on the main card. Now let's look at the undercard for more value … I see three (3) favorites and three (3) underdogs I like.
Canadian Joe DOERKSEN has been fighting forever with over 50 MMA battles on his resume. One of those was a loss to fellow Canadian Jason MacDonald, tonight's opponent. Doerksen feels he is the better and more experienced fighter. This revenge is a big deal to him. MacDonald doesn't want the fight, thinking it doesn't advance his standing any in the UFC. I smell an upset, don't you? Motivated against unmotivated. I see Doerksen @ +140 with his hand raised at the end of the fight. This one ends with an armbar submission late in the first round.
Rich CLEMENTI is an under-rated fighter with many weapons in his arsenal. He takes on Sam STOUT, a one-dimensional puncher who is relentless in his attacks. Stout will try to overpower Clementi and end it early with a crashing KO. I think the bookies have the wrong man favored here. I'll go with a more well-rounded and experienced Clementi @ +150. If he can weather the early barrage of punches, and take it to the ground, I think he can get it done. I'm betting on it! Clementi wins with a second-round rear-naked choke.
Jonathan GOULET with the freaky, colored hair, can be a dangerous opponent for the obscure Japanese fighter, Kuniyoshi HIRONAKA. Goulet will be trying to outfox his opponent on the ground and hope for an opening to gain control of a victory in front of his Canadian fans. My seventh underdog of the night has at least a fighter's chance. Goulet @ +190 pulls the mild upset with a split decision over a game opponent.
Alan BELCHER is also an under-rated UFC fighter. One loss and he could be looking for work in another venue. He takes on a Canadian journeyman making his UFC debut, Jason DAY. Belcher makes it look easy with a tap-out submission in the first round by a rare ankle lock submission. Lay the lumber @ -450.
Young upstart, Demien MAIA, looks to derail TUF fighter Ed HERMAN. Ed will be fighting for his UFC life also, and will rely on his aggressive punching power to set up a rear-naked choke. That's his game, but Maia should be ready for all that Herman shows. We may have a new star on the horizon. Maia @ -220 wins in a first round by triangle choke.
… and finally, highly-touted heavyweight Cain VELASQUEZ @ -260 will end Brad MORRIS' night early with a first-round KO over his over-matched opponent.
So, let's put our fictitious $1000 bankroll to work. The UFC Monster has never lost with his posted fictitious bankroll. Let's see if that streak continues:
Lay $225 to win $50 on St. Pierre.
Lay $ 50 to win $135 on Lutter.
Lay $ 50 to win $115 on Starnes.
Lay $ 40 to win $112 on McCarthy.
Lay $ 40 to win $150 on Bocek.
Lay $110 to win $154 on Doerksen
Lay $135 to win $ 30 on Belcher.
Lay $110 to win $ 50 on Maia.
Lay $ 80 to win $120 on Clementi.
Lay $100 to win $ 40 on Valasquez.
Lay $ 60 to win $114 on Goulet.
In all, we are laying $1000 to win $1070.
Enjoy the fights. I know I will.
More later.
The UFC Monster.
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