Event: UFC 77: Hostile Territory
Date: October 20, 2007
Location: Cincinnati, Ohio (US Bank Arena)
Revenge is often sweet in sports. It is especially rewarding if the revenge occurs in front of hometown fans. That is what this main event is all about. It was just a year ago when Anderson "Spider" SILVA (19-4) upset middleweight champion, Rich "Ace" FRANKLIN (22-2) with some vicious Mua Thay kicking that left the invincible Franklin crumpled in a pile on the mat. The MMA world was shocked. Ace had looked unstoppable until the Anderson Silva carnage. Tonight, Franklin gets his much awaited chance at revenge, and Dana White has placed in the event in Franklin's backyard, Cincinnati. Advantage Franklin. Plus, can you imagine the focus that Rich will have for this fight? He can't lose! … and yet, he's the underdog. I see value there. TAKE FRANKLIN @ +165 over the Spider in a hometown split decision.
Tim "the Maniac" SILVIA has an impressive 23-3 record with an astounding 16 KO's, while Brandon "the Truth" VERA is 8-0 with 6 KO's. Despite being the much larger fighter at 265 lbs to Vera's 225 pounds, Silvia is the underdog. Perhaps, because he is so one-dimensional and slow compared to the much quicker Vera. I see Vera as a fighter on the rise against an ex-champion on the decline. Couture had his way with Silvia. So will Vera. If Vera can avoid the Maniac's haymaker, he will get the job done on the mat tonight. I see a rear-naked choke ending this one with "the Truth" standing tall midway through the second round. TAKE VERA @ �150 to position himself for a title shot.
Yushin OKAMI (20-4) has beaten some of the best fighters out there (undefeated Mike Swick, Anderson Silva!, Kalib Starnes, and Nick "the Goat" Thompson). Tonight he faces a dangerous Canadian, Jason MACDONALD (19-8) who has won 7 of his last 8 fights, losing only to Rich Franklin. Sixteen out of MacDonald's 19 wins have come by submission. But, Okami has only been submitted once in 24 fights! Okami is a versatile bully, who likes to go after you with his impressive stand-up game, only to use his submission skills to dominate on the ground. TAKE OKAMI @ -225 to defeat MacDonald by second round ground-and-pound TKO.
Stephan BONNAR (10-4) is back. He fights Eric "Red" Schafer (7-2-2) in what should be a victory on his way up ladder in the deep light-heavyweight (205 lbs) class. Bonnar was good enough to beat Keith Jardine, who recently defeated Chick "the Iceman" Liddell. His only losses have been to the amazing Forrest Griffin (twice), undefeated Ryoto Machida, and undefeated Rashad Evans. Not bad. I think of Bonnar as a puncher, but his record shows only one KO, with seven submission victories on his resume. But, tonight it will be "lights out" for Schafer. I see Bonnar getting a crowd-pleasing KO in the second round. TAKE BONNAR and lay the �325.
Kalib STARNES (8-1-1) is a middleweight up-and-comer from Canada, who is coming off a victory over Chris Leben. His opponent, Alan BELCHER (10-3) will be coming in looking for a KO. Both fighters have lost to Yushin Okami. Starnes has been working on his punching skills and may choose to go toe-to-toe in this one. UFC website fans polled have a 2/3 preference for Starnes in this one, yet the betting line is only Starnes a slight favorite @ -125. I see some value here. TAKE STARNES @ -125 over Belcher with a third round submission by armbar.
Josh BURKMAN (8-4) is known as the "people's champion". Why? Tonight he fights journeyman Forrest "the Meat Cleaver" PETZ (13-4), who back in early '05 choked out Charles "Crazyhorse" Bennett in King of the Cage Payback. Despite his mediocre record, bookmakers have made Burkman the �315 favorite. This is because of the level of competition he has fought, losing to Karo Parisyan, Jon Fitch, and Jeremy Horn. Burkman is a strong wrestler from Salt Lake City, while Petz will be the hometown boy from nearby Cleveland. TAKE BURKMAN @ -315 to crush the Meat Cleaver with a resounding left hook in the second round. Burkman by KO.
In other fights on the undercard:
Take Alvin "the Kid" ROBINSON (8-2) @ +130 to upset Jorge Gurgel (11-2) with an armbar submission in the third round. Robinson's 8 wins have all been by submission.
Take Ryan JENSEN (11-2) @ +170 as a big underdog to end Demian Maia's undefeated streak (5-0). Interestingly enough, 74% of UFC website fans support the underdog here! Jensen wins with shocking triangle choke in the second round.
Take Jason BLACK (21-3-1) @ -340 to handle Donald "the Wolverine" Grice (8-1), a wrestler from Norman, Oklahoma. Black wins by rear-naked choke in the first round.
The UFC Monster has 6 favorites and 3 underdogs on tonight's card. Let's hope for the best. Enjoy the fights!
More later.
The UFC Monster
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