Date: November 18, 2006
Venue: ARCO Arena (Sacramento, Calif.)
In one of the most anticipated rematches in UFC history, Georges ST. PIERRE (12-1) tries to win the welterweight championship Saturday night against the legendary Matt HUGHES (41-4). St. Pierre has focused on this fight since losing to Hughes a little over two years ago. A St. Pierre groin injury delayed this fight, and gave Hughes a chance for a successful redemption against BJ Penn. Now these two warriors are finally ready to square off.
Jeff MonsonThe size of these fighters also defines their styles. Monson, short, muscular, and compact relies on takedowns and submissions. His awesome record, going back three years without defeat, winning 16 straight fights, is laced with submission after submission, after submission victory.
Silvia is just the opposite. His lanky frame keeps opponents away, while he waits for that magic moment to send you into la-la land. Silvia's knockout power has left many athletes seeing stars in the sky with their backs on the mat. He has also kicked his opponents into oblivion, as well. Going to the mat with Monson isn't on his agenda. That's why this fight is so exciting. Plus, Monson is an outspoken Iraq War critic, while Silvia thinks that he is being dishonorable to our troops! There is hell to pay here. But, whose will is going to prevail?
Monson, the juicy underdog at +240, gets my nod. It's the year of successful anti-war movement. Why not back the Snowman? I see the Monson darting inside and under the powerful punches of Silvia, and by the second round, getting the champ to the mat. From there it will be a leg lock that forces the champ to choose between a broken ankle and giving up his crown. Unfortunately, those who know that Silvia sleeps with his belt also know that the broken ankle will be his choice. Tim also had his arm snapped by Frank Mir while defending (and losing) his precious belt. This will be no different. This fight is not for the faint of heart. I see MONSON +240 in an upset by submission in Round 2. With Christmas around the corner, it's the Snowman's time to shine.
In the featured match I like the vastly improved ST. PIERRE, a mild underdog at +130, to use his motivation and focus to get the best of Hughes. Interestingly, almost 60% of hardcore UFC fans polled on the official UFC Web site (http://www.ufc.tv) voted that St. Pierre would beat Hughes, yet the oddsmakers have him as the underdog!
I believe that St. Pierre has the better stand-up fighting skills, and he will be able to resist the powerful takedown moves of Hughes. Midway through the second round, St. Pierre will stun a frustrated Hughes with a kick to the temple, which soon ends the fight with St. Pierre pounding mercilessly on the champ, and then quickly submitting him with a rear-naked choke!……and we will have a new welterweight champion, Canadian Georges St. Pierre. And, a popular champ he will be. I think Matt is ready to retire.
Frank MirStaying with the big 'dogs, we find Frank MIR (9-2, and former UFC heavyweight champion) in a battle to keep his career going, taking on the favored and still undefeated Brandon "the Truth" VERA (7-0). Mir, a rare heavyweight who relies on submissions to win his fights, has never been the same after a brutal motorcycle accident that broke his legs. His two-year recovery has been a slow and painful process. And, his return record of 1-1 in the octagon has left much to be desired. Frank has looked slow, weak, and winded. Not a good combo! His cardio has failed him miserably. He looks finished.
Vera, on the other hand, has looked like a monster, destroying his last two opponents in the first round! But, he once idolized Mir and may be somewhat awestruck by Frank's earlier reign. There is nothing more dangerous than a rabid 'dog fighting for his UFC life. And, that's where Mir is today. He claims to be in the best shape of his life and is bigger and stronger than his opponent. And, at these odds, +275 (opened at +150), I'm gonna give Frank one last look. The public is betting against him. But, the UFC Monster will be betting on him! There is nothing in currant form that would mandate such a play, so I will base this on a hungry 'dog going back to the history books. I like Mir in the second round with triangle choke. And, at these prices, one-out-of-three will still make you a winner!
Alessio SAKARA (14-4) is an overwhelming favorite at –550 to handle newcomer Drew MCFEDRIES (4-1) in a light heavyweight fight. Sakara is coming off a tough loss to Dean Lister, one of the world's best jui jitsu fighters. He has knockout power and loves to kick. McFedries fights out of Bettendorf, Iowa and is a relative unknown. If betting on big favorites is your game, Sakara is your play. I'll bridge jump with him.
Joe "Daddy" STEVENSON (30-7) is coming off an impressive big upset win over Yves Edwards. As the young father of three kids, who provide his motivation to fight, Big Daddy has good takedown and submission skills. He likes to mix it up and then take you to the mat for some ground-and-pound. MISHIMA (17-4-2) is making his UFC debut. I'll go with pa here. Stevenson at –220 wins by TKO in the second round.
Nick DIAZ (14-6) is back in the octagon taking on another Brazilian jui jitsu fighter, Gleison TIBAU (23-2). The gangly Diaz recently beat tough Josh Neer, after losing three consecutive close decisions to Sean Sherk (the UFC lightweight champ), Joe "Diesel" Riggs, and undefeated Diego Sanchez. Diaz fought each to a close decision loss! Not much to go on with Tibau, despite his long record of wins. For a wirey guy, Diaz loves to stand and trade punches. His real strength is still on the ground. The oddsmakers have Diaz as a huge favorite at -550. I'll pass on the action, but root for Nicky with my heart.
In other matches:
Sherman PENDERGAST (8-3) +245 upsets Antonio HARDONK (4-2) by submission in second.
Jake O'BRIEN (8-0) –240 beats Josh SHOCKMAN (7-0) with second round TKO.
James IRWIN (11-3) +145 beats Hector Ramirez with first round KO.
So, that's it for now: five underdogs, three favorites, and one "no play." Good luck and enjoy the fights. I'll meet you at the winner's window!
More later.
The UFC Monster
Recommended Comments
There are no comments to display.
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now