Venue: Bell Centre (Montreal, Canada)
Date: March 16, 2013
In what has become one of the most anticipated fights in UFC history, welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre (23-2) defends his title at home against Stockton, Calif., street punk, Nick Diaz (26-8). Diaz is coming off a 1-year suspension from drug testing (marijuana metabolites), and a controversial five-round loss last February to Carlos Condit, who has since lost his challenge to GSP. Diaz was able to get this fight, passing Johny Hendricks in the process, by trash-talking and baiting the champion with relentless, piercing insults to the mild-mannered champion. And, it worked.
St. Pierre has been effectively bothered by Diaz, and Nick will continue his taunting even inside the octagon. This is his one big chance in life to be special, and he intends to die trying … "Where you at, Georges?"
I see the first minute of the fight being a Stockton slapfest, until GSP has had enough, at which point he will pin Diaz's blades to the mat with his patented double leg takedown. Then the champ will unleash his wicked elbows in a vicious ground-and-pound attack, until he has sliced open the challenger's face and covers him in his own blood. It will look ugly.
But a wounded animal is a dangerous beast, and we rarely get to see Diaz's awesome ground game in desperation mode. Tonight you will see what Gracie jiu-jitsu is all about. From the bottom, Diaz will lock in a razor sharp triangle choke that shocks the world, and sends me to the winner's window. Take Diaz in a big upset at +400. Got it, homie!
So where does that leave Okie State's welterweight Johny Hendrick's (14-1), who will fight Carlos Condit (28-6) in a restructured title elimination fight? Big Rigg has patiently been waiting for his title shot, destroying every challenger in his way, with first round KOs. Condit, "The Natural Born Killer," is a finisher. Only two of his 28 wins have been by a judge's decision! And, he has a balanced 13 wins by submission and 13 by knockouts. His game has very few holes in it. Hendricks has a challenge ahead!
But Hendricks has rarely used his NCAA champion wrestling credentials to win in the UFC. He has been shocking the world with his powerful punching instead. I think he will once again try to end this quickly, but Condit is a stick and jab fighter, who darts in and out, scoring points and leaving his opponents frustrated. Unfortunately for him, Hendo will grab one of his kicks and pull him to the mat, where it will end with the referee pulling the cowboy off the killer in the second round. Lay the modest -130 on Hendricks as he wins by TKO. Johny will soon get his title shot! "You know what I'm sayin'?"
If neither of the two fights above wins FON (Fight of the Night), then this one will … More welterweights tangle as Nate "The Great" Marquardt (32-11) is back in the UFC after two years away, and faces title contender Jake Ellenberger (28-6), another strong wrestler who wins by KOs instead (17 out of 28 wins). Marquardt has been fighting MMA for 14 years, with the first six being in Japan where he developed a strong kicking game in Pancrase. The former middleweight is back now as a welterweight, and he and his opponent are huge for their weight class. Both are top tier fighters.
But, both these warriors are near the end of their careers, and both need a win to continue their pursuit of the belt. A loss won't be a pink slip, but the title dreams will soon be gone for the loser. That makes this a battle between two desperate fighters, and fireworks will be the result. I'll take the better "value" with Marquardt as the 'dog. He wins a close decision and cashes at +140.
Middleweights Chris Camozzi (18-5) and Nick Ring (13-1) each have nice submission games and neither has ever been knocked out. So the stand-up game will be a setup for what may look like a wrestling match in a cage. Ring wins this a split decision at odds of -130.
TUF TV stars, Colin "The Freak" Fletcher (8-2) and Mike Ricci (7-3), are lightweights both coming off losses in their UFC debuts. I'm not sure why this fight is on the main card? Fletcher has seven submission victories out of his eight wins. Ricci has four KOs on his resume. A contrast in styles makes this an interesting fight. I'll timidly go with Ricci at -300 to end this in the second round with another KO.
Now let's take a quick look at the undercard …
Another TUF TV fighter, 135-pounder T.J. Dillashaw (6-1) is an outrageous -700 favorite to defeat Japan's Issei Tamura (7-3), who is 1-1 in the octagon. On principle alone, I'll throw a dart on the big underdog. Take Tamura at +450 to surprise the fans with a first-round KO.
Welterweight Rick Story (14-6) is the only man to have beaten Johny Hendricks (by close decision). But he has lost three of his last four fights, and another loss will most likely give him a pink slip. Desperate fighters are good fighters. Story at -400 beats newcomer, Quinn Mulhern (8-2), by unanimous decision.
Darren Elkins (15-2) will be fighting a tough Canadian in Antonio Carvalho (15-5) at 145 pounds. Elkins has won four straight and is 5-1 in the UFC. He has just enough to get by Carvalho, and wins a close decision. You will lay 2 for 1 (-200) to find out.
Former light heavyweight and middleweight, and now welterweight Patrick "The Predator" Cote (18-8) is a Canadian with an iron chin. He will need it against Bobby Voelker (24-8) who has 15 KOs on his resume. These two should stand toe-to-toe, throwing punches until one of them drops -- a real fan pleaser. Good night, Volker. Cote at -175 will be the last man standing. A loss will send him packing.
Who's welterweight Jordan Mein (26-8)? He's been fighting professionally since he was 16 years old, losing to Canadian Rory McDonald in his MMA debut. And the fact that he has 34 fights at age 23 is amazing! He's on a pace to catch Dan Severn or Jeremy Horn, each with over 100 fights. His opponent Dan Miller (14-6) is the younger brother of Jim Miller, both submission masters and UFC veterans. Mein is steep at -300, but he may be the next best thing in a deep, deep division. Mein wins by decision.
I will pass on George Roop (12-9) against Reuben Duran (8-4), and on Daron Cruickshank (12-2) against John Makdessi (10-2). Both fights are too close to call.
So we have "action" on ten of the twelve fights tonight. Let's see how we do with our fictitious $1000 bankroll …
Let's lay $100 to win $400 on Nick Diaz to upset GSP.
Let's lay $169 to win $130 on Johny Hendrick and his patience.
Let's lay $125 to win $175 on Marquardt's return to the UFC.
Let's lay $91 to win $70 on Nick Ring.
Let's lay $60 to win $20 on Mike Ricci.
Let's lay $20 to win $90 on a Tamura dart throw.
Let's lay $140 to win $ 35 on Rick "The Horror" Story.
Let's lay $ 90 to win $ 30 on Jordan Mein.
Let's lay $100 to win $50 on tough Darren Elkins.
Let's lay $105 to win $60 on Patrick Cote.
Let's pass on Makdessi/Cruickshank and Roop/Duran.
In total we are risking $1000 to win $1060. Not bad.
Don't forget to give some of your winnings to your local youth wrestling programs, where tomorrow's champions are born.
Enjoy the fights. I know I will.
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