Venue: Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, Canada
Date: July 21, 2012
The UFC Monster is on fire! I won $585 for InterMat readers on my UFC 148 selections. Seriously, I can't remember the last time I've lost in this column! Hopefully, the site webmaster will soon update my record and post it for all to see. It is my mission to find weaknesses in the Las Vegas betting lines for mixed martial arts fights, and capitalize on them in order to build a retirement fund. DISCLAIMER: Wager at your own risk. Cardinal rule No. 1 in gambling is that you should NEVER bet with money you cannot afford to lose!!! A fool and his money are soon parted. Please don't be foolish.
Now let's look at tonight's revamped fight card.
After a record number of injuries changed the face of this card, we are left with Urijah "the California Kid" Faber (26-5 with 14 submissions) taking on Renan Pegado Barao (28-1 with 13 submissions) for the interim bantamweight belt in a five round affair. Champion Dominick Cruz is out with injury. This fight should be a lock for Fight of the Night (FON), as both are aggressive and active fighters who will mix strikes and kicks with takedown attempts, and both have submission skills that can end the fight in a heartbeat. Yet, neither has ever been submitted in a combined total of 60 fights. Barao has won 19 in a row, though skeptics question his competition level. Faber is the more experienced fighter with tougher opponents, but his age (33) makes it critical that he get the job done now! Time is no longer on his side. Barao is 25.
I'll take a shot with the live and motivated underdog, the hungry, surfer blond kid, Urijah Faber. In a close decision, Faber does enough to convince the judges that he deserves the title of "champion." Take the +160 odds and be grateful for the value. Faber wants a Cruz rematch in the worst way.
In the co-main event, we have the long anticipated middleweight debut of Cuban Olympian Hector Lombard (28-1 with 17 KOs). Lombard has already become a mixed martial arts legend, seemingly invincible, and unbeaten in his last 25 fights! But this is still only his UFC debut. His opponent, Tim Boetsch (15-4), is 3-0 in the Octagon since dropping from the light heavyweight ranks. His stunning comeback upset of Yushin Okami is one of the year's best. Boetsch will bring it, but it won't be enough as a new bully is in town. Lombard fuels the fire with a first round KO. I got on at -270, but you will be lucky to find -350 by fight night. Lay the juice ... Is the Spider next?
If you like toe-to-toe slugging, you will enjoy watching Cheik Kongo (17-7-2 with 10 KOs) and Shawn Jordan (13-3 with 9 KOs) do battle. Kongo is the more experienced fighter with 16 UFC fights under his belt. The French kick-boxer has some vicious ground-and-pound, and enjoys a whopping 8-inch reach advantage against the more athletic Jordan. Jordan's strategy will be to get inside, and being a better wrestler, take Kongo to the mat and finish him there with his ground-and-pound punching power. But experience is the difference here and making Kongo an underdog is just plain foolish. I'll take the bait. Give me Kongo and the +110 price tag. A second-round TKO ends it.
Brian Ebersole (50-14-1 with 14 KOs and 20 subs) has a great edge in experience against James Head (8-2). He has won 11 straight since his last loss to Hector Lombard. And, he has never been KO'd in 65 fights! The price tag on Ebersole is expensive, but I can't see Head winning this one. Take Ebersole and lay the -350. A second-round submission will end this.
All of Matt Riddle's (8-3) fights have been in the UFC. His opponent, Chris Clements (11-4 with 10 KOs) has a puncher's chance with his strong KO percentage, but the Riddler should rule the ground game, and once there, Matt will control the action. Not a good closer, but Riddle at -150 still manages to get the judge's decision here to keep his UFC career alive.
Now, let's take a quick look at the preliminary undercard with the next four fights being shown for FREE on FX:
TUF winner Court McGee (14-2 with 7 subs) has lost two in a row. He will try to get back on track with the often injured Nick Ring (12-1 with 6 subs). Ring has a more rounded arsenal of weapons, and he wins this one by decision at a reasonable -110 price tag.
Two submission specialists meet when Canadian Mitch Gagnon (8-1 with all eight wins coming by way of submission) goes to the mat with Bryan Caraway (16-5 with 14 subs!). Boldly, I predict a submission wins this one. The more experienced Caraway gets the nod at -200 with a second-round rear-naked choke.
Another Canadian, Ryan Jimmo (16-1 with 6 KOs), will get caught by Brazilian Anthony Perosh (13-6 with 9 subs), an awkward striker with a lethal ground game. Underdog Perosh at +140 gets a first-round finish with a wicked triangle choke.
Slugger Daniel Pineda (17-8 with 11 subs) gets a decision victory over Antonio Carvalho (13-5 with 6 KOs). Lay the -220.
The remaining two fights can also be seen FREE on Facebook:
Roland Delorme (8-1 with 6 subs) gets another submission victory against Francisco Rivera (8-2 with 5 KOs). Delorme at +110 offers the better value.
Canadian Mitch Clarke (9-1 with 6 subs) gets the split decision nod from the judges against Finland's Anton Kulvanen (16-5 with 8 subs). Clarke is the play at +140.
OK, now let's take a look at what we can do with our fictitious $1000 bankroll ... with action on each fight.
Let's lay $100 to win $160 on the California Kid to shine Bigtime.
Let's lay $150 to win $50 on Hector Lombard's impressive debut.
Let's lay $80 to win $88 on Cheik Kongo to crush Shawn Jordan.
Let's lay $90 to win $60 on the Riddler to beat Chris Clements.
Let's lay $105 to win $30 on veteran Brian Ebersole in a small bridge jump.
Let's lay $110 to win $100 on Nick Ring to survive Court McGee.
Let's lay $75 to win $105 on Brazilian Perosh to upset Ryan Jimmo.
Let's lay $80 to win $40 on Bryan Caraway to get another submission.
Let's lay $110 to win $50 on Daniel Pineda's punching power.
Let's lay $50 to win $70 on Clarke to upset Finland's Anton Kulvanen.
Let's lay $50 to win $55 on Roland Delorme choking out Francisco Rivera.
In all we are risking $1000 to win $808. That's six favorites and five underdogs, a nice balance. Let's keep this winning streak going!!!
And, don't forget to give some of your winnings to your local youth wrestling program where tomorrow's champions are born.
Enjoy the fights. I know I will.
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