Frankie Edgar and Benson Henderson (Photo/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)Event: UFC 144: Edgar vs. Henderson
Venue: Saitama Super Arena (Tokyo, Japan)
Date: Feb. 25, 2012
The UFC returns to Japan for the first time in a decade, and the fight card is full of Japanese fighters, as you would expect. To date, the Japanese have been a real disappointment with their participation in the UFC, despite their long history of karate, kung-fu, judo, and the other mixed martial arts. Tonight is their chance to turn that around on a fight card of a dozen fights ...
The UFC Monster has been on a hot streak, winning money for InterMat readers on four straight cards, and nine of the last 12, winning at a 75% pace. Nice Return on Investment (ROI). We won $140 on the UFC 143 card, but I felt it should have been $420, if the judges had given Nick Diaz, the win over Carlos Condit, who danced all night, and did no damage whatsoever to Diaz. I thought the pot-smoker got screwed. He now is suspended and threatens to call it quits. I hope not. Let's move on now to see if we can keep this winning streak going!
This fight card is a bargain for fans who get seven PPV fights (instead of five), with an additional four preliminary fights shown for free on FX TV. The main event features the battle for the lightweight title between champion Frankie Edgar (14-1-1) and the athletic Benson Henderson (15-2 with 8 submissions). This five-round fight should be the "Fight of the Night." Edgar never quits. Anyone who saw either of his last two fights with Gray Maynard, know that he can take a royal beating, and somehow rally to win fights he was "out" of. He also out scored BJ Penn twice, leaving him as a frustrated loser. Frankie is a true champion with the heart of a lion.
But Ben Henderson is a lightning-fast striker with a complimentary kicking game, who uses his strikes to set up his patented, neck-cranking, guillotine choke. Henderson rides you to the mat as he locks in that vice grip. His athleticism and endless cardio make him extremely dangerous for the champ. His resume has UFC victories over Clay Guida, Jim Miller, and Mark Bocek. Add some WEC notches to his belt with victories over Shane Roller, and Cowboy Donald Cerrone (twice). This will be an action packed battle. So flip a coin, if you want, but I'm taking Henderson at odds of +105 as a slight underdog to win the LW belt by fourth round submission. I am also factoring in that it's often more motivating to win the belt for the first time, than defending it for the fourth.
I think I've sniffed out another barking underdog with teeth, light heavyweight, former ASU wrestler Ryan Bader (13-2 with 6 KOs). His challenge is to upset the legendary Quinton "Rampage" Jackson (32-9 with 10 KOs), who is a fan favorite in Japan due to his dominance in Pride. The master of the slam (see Ricardo Arona for details) tore apart his competition a decade ago, but Rampage's UFC days are now numbered, as always happens to veteran fighters, while Bader, despite his shortcomings of getting submitted twice in his last three fights, is a fighter on the rise. One is going up (Bader), while the other is going down (Rampage). Both have lost to Bones Jones, and neither will see a rematch anytime soon.
Bader won't be submitted by Rampage. That's not his game. The howling wolfman with the heavy chain around his neck has become a street fighter, using his powerful strikes to drive you to the fence where he bullies opponents, and ends his mission leaving most of them in a heap on the mat. Rampage is a slugger with great takedown defensive skills. And, Bader, is made to order for him. But I'm going back to the hunger factor. Bader is coming off a quick first-round knockout over Jason Brilz. Rampage is going home to Japan. I can't pass on the value of getting Bader at +220. His wrestling and powerful double leg takedowns give him more than a slugger's chance of winning this. Bader wins by third-round ground-and-pound TKO.
Frenchman heavyweight Cheick Kongo (17-6-2 with 10 KOs) is a fan favorite because of his powerful physique and striking power. He loves to stand and fire rockets, and his ground game has improved dramatically. He used to be an automatic out once he was put to his back. The big Hawaiian, Mark Hunt (7-7) won't put him on this back, because six of Hunt's seven losses have come by submission, and he wants nothing of the mat. So Kongo being a smart fighter should minimize the slugfest, use his strong kicking skills to back up Hunt, and then after unloading elbows and knees against the fence, pull his legs out from under him, and smother him with his patented ground-and-pound. Kongo wins by second-round TKO and cashes at odds of -270.
Welterweight Jake Shields (26-6-1with 10 submissions) went almost a decade between losses. Now he has lost two in a row! Losing to GSP was expected, and the loss of his father may have cost him his focus in the last one, but tonight he makes it right, and gets back on track for a title run. Yoshihiro Akiyama (13-4 with 6 KOs and 6 subs) has been a disaster in the UFC. Vitor Belfort destroyed him with a first-round KO. Chris Leben choked him out. And Michael Bisping beat him by decision. Another loss and he'll be gone. That makes him dangerous, but Shields isn't ready to accept another loss, as well. Two desperate fighters make for an interesting affair.
I think Shields has the better skills, a better training camp (Diaz brothers, Gilbert Melindez, and others), and a lethal ground game that smothers and controls even the likes of Dan Henderson! Akiyama looks like fodder for the feast. I'll lay the -300 on Shields winning by a second round rear-naked choke.
Middleweight Yushin Okami (26-2) is 10-3 in the UFC, and is coming off a rare KO loss to Anderson "Spider" Silva, who avenged an earlier defeat to Okami (due to an illegal kick to the head). His opponent, Tim Boetsch (14-4), has looked good since dropping from light heavyweight. This should be a standup affair with each trying to grind out a victory with their dirty boxing skills in the clinch. Okami has the crowd behind him. But Boetsch will give him all that he can handle. I'm taking advantage of the value of a +300 underdog, and calling it a late TKO for "The Barbarian."
Featherweight Hatsu Hioki (25-4-2 with 10 subs) is 13-1-1 in his last 15 fights, but he struggled in his UFC debut, winning a split decision over George Roop. His opponent, Bart Palaszewski (36-14), is a seasoned WEC veteran making a late career run. He is also coming off a stunning first-round KO of once-dominant Tyson Griffin. Hioki should be able to get the decision in front of a friendly crowd. I think the -170 price tag is reasonable.
In what should be one of the most interesting fights of the night, Anthony Pettis (14-2) takes on Joe Lauzon (21-6 with 16 subs) at lightweight. Pettis will forever be remembered as winning the WEC title with a running off the cage kick that stunned Ben Henderson and gave him a decision victory. He then went 1-1 in the UFC and now faces the dangerous Joe Lauzon who just ended Melvin Guillard's five-fight winning streak with a brutal arm bar. This fight should have plenty of action as Pettis tries to keep it standing, and Lauzon wants to go to the mat. After getting beind as he often does, I look for Lauzon to pull yet another upset as he locks up a late submission to cash at +205.
Now let's take a brief look at the undercard ...
Takanori Gomi (32-8) is a Japanese legend who is struggling at the end of his glorious career. I give him the nod over Eiji Mitsuoka (18-7-2) to win by decision at a reasonable -200.
Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto (18-5 with 13 KOs) was tearing up Japan until he came to the U.S. and lost a split decision to Joe Warren at Bellator. He has also struggled in the UFC, but should be able to get back on track against Vaughan Lee (11-7-1). I'll call it a KO and lay the -305.
Takeya Mizugaki (17-5) should get a decision over Chris Cariaso (12-3). Lay the -200.
Middleweights Riki Fukuda (17-5) and Steve Cantwell (7-5) are struggling to keep their careers alive. Cantwell has lost four straight and has dropped from the ranks of light heavyweight. Fukuda hasn't fought in a year since a car crash damaged his knee. I'll pass on this one.
And, finally, Chinese Tiequan Zhang (15-2 with 12 subs) should get another one against Issei Tamura (6-2). Lay the -250.
Now let's see how we can do with our "fictitious" $1000 bankroll. Previous results are documented below.
Let's lay $100 to win $105 on a mild Ben Henderson upset for the title.
Let's lay $50 to win $110 on Ryan Bader beating up Rampage.
Let's lay $135 to win $50 on Cheick Kongo drilling Mark Hunt.
Let's lay $150 to win $50 on Jake Shields getting back on track.
Let's lay $50 to win $150 on a Tim Boetsch shocker.
Let's lay $119 to win $70 on Hatsu Hioki.
Let's lay $50 to win $125 on Joe Lauzon and his wicked submissions.
Let's lay $120 to win $60 on the once dominant Takanori Gomi.
Let's lay $61 to win $20 on Kid Yamamoto to finally KO someone.
Let's lay $60 to win $30 on Takeya Mizugaki to pleasing the crowd.
Let's lay $75 to win $30 on Tiequan Zhang submitting Issei Tamura.
Let's pass on Fukuda vs. Cantwell.
That's $970 to win $800 and we still have $30 left!
So, let's try for the BIG KILL by putting together a four-team, underdog, round-robin parlay. This will be five separate parlay bets at $6 each for a total risk of only $30, with the chances of hitting for about $1000! That's right. If we even hit 3-out-of-4, we would still clear a $100+ profit ... and all for just a $30 risk. But in a parlay wager you need all teams to win, one bad apple spoils the pie, and you lose your parlay bet if just one team loses. Since each team is in four of the five parlays, one losers leaves you with just one parlay alive.
This "system" was taught to me by the infamous Dr. George, a Ph.D. in statistical sports analysis, who once dominated the sports books of Vegas, earning free buffets as he went. This one's for the The Doctor.
Using our four underdogs (Henderson/Bader/Boetsch/Lauzon) we have the following combinations:
Hendo/Bader/Boetsch
Hendo/Bader/Lauzon
Hendo/Boetsch/Lauzon
Bader/Boetsch/Lauzon
Hendo/Bader/Boetsch/Lauzon ... We are risking $30 to win $1000+.
Good luck. See you at the winner's window.
Enjoy the fights. I know I will. And, don't forget to share your winnings with your local youth wrestling program, where tomorrow's champions are born.
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