Jose Aldo and Chad Mendes (Photo/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)Event: UFC 142: Aldo vs. Mendes
Venue: HSBC Arena (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)
Date: Jan. 14, 2012
The UFC Monster had a feast with UFC 141's card, winning $378 for those who followed my advice. The UFC 142 card offers some upset potential, as well, but the deck may be stacked in favor of the Brazilians, fighting in front of their rabid crowd. Some of the best fighters in the world will be on display, headlined with the UFC Featherweight (145 pounds) title fight (5 rounds), featuring Jose "Scarface" Aldo (20-1, with 12 KOs) defending his belt against undefeated Chad "Money" Mendes (11-0 with 7 decisions). One is a finisher. The other not.
Aldo is considered by most to be a top-five pound-for-pound contender, who's impressive resume includes winning 13 straight, and KO'ing 7 out 8 opponents in his WEC career. He is 2-0 with 2 decisions in the UFC. Mendes is a former Cal. Poly./SLO NCAA runner-up to J Jaggers, a very memorable match for the UFC Monster, who cashed a ticket on Jaggers to win the NCAA title at odds of 22:1. But, that was then, and this is now. Beating Aldo on his home turf will be an improbable task for Mendes.
But I see it happening at underdog odds of +240. Wrestler over striker. It is a matter of Mendes minimizing the kicks and strikes he absorbs on his way to taking Aldo to the mat and grinding out a G-n-P victory. Endurance may come into play (I'll take the wrestler every time), and Chad's brute strength and determination will need to overcome the vicious strikes of a proud and hungry champion, looking for a flashy finish. This has fight of the night (FON) written all over it, but at +200 odds, there is no value there. Mendes grinds out a narrow victory at +240, as the angry crowd lynches the judges.
DISCLAIMER: Vitor "The Phenom" Belfort (20-9, with 14 KOs) is one of my all-time favorite fighters. That means I often bet on him with my heart at the expense of my wallet. But not recently. Ol' 34-year old Vitor has won 6-of-his-last-7 fights, losing only to the UFC's best, Anderson "Spider" Silva. He once ruled the light-heavyweight (205 pounds) division. His opponent, Anthony "Rumble" Johnson (10-3 with 7 KOs) has been fighting as a welterweight (170 pounds) and is making his middleweight (185 pounds) debut tonight. Once two weight classes apart, Vitor opened the betting as a mild favorite and was bet up to -160 before late money came cascading in on Johnson to drive the current betting line to about even. Belfort's best odds are now at -105, a real bargain to me.
This should be a toe-to-toe wild swinging affair with either fighter capable of catching the other with a "lights out" punch. But I think Belfort is bigger, slightly quicker still, and much more experienced. If he can't take Rumble out early, rumor has it that he will go for the takedown and control his opponent on the mat. Either way, I like Vitor to win by 2nd round TKO. Lay the small price. As Vitor praises God for his win, I will head to the winner's window. Been there. Done that.
Welterweight Ricardo "Golden Boy" Funch (8-2) will try to stay on the UFC roster with an upset win over journeyman veteran, Mike "Quicksand" Pyle (21-8-1 with 16 submissions). Why is this fight on the main card? Or am I missing something here? Strange indeed.
Pyle has a vast experience edge, and he has submitted Brazilian black belt, Ricardo Almeida, as well as Britain's J. Hathaway. He even has a career opening win over Jon Fitch as a notch on his belt. I like Pyle here to win by 1st round submission, but the -450 price tag is too steep for me to play. I'll PASS on this wager, but would consider Pyle for submission of the night. I haven't seen those odds posted yet.
Lightweights (155 pounds) Thiago Tavares (16-4-1, with 11 submissions) and Sam "Hands of Stone" Stout (17-6-1 with a draw with Joey Clark and 9 KOs on his resume) offer two contrasting styles. Stout is all about stand-up striking, while Tavares is a boa constrictor snake at home in the weeds. He lives on the mat, tho' he is coming off an improbable KO of Spencer Fisher. Go figure that one out … Ironically despite his nickname, Stout has had only one KO in his eleven fight UFC career! Maybe the nickname should go?
Another Brazilian wins in front of the hometown folks as Tavares locks up a lanky rear-naked choke to end this late in the first round. Lay the -125, we have another cheap winner!
I have high hopes for Brazilian lightweight Edson Barbosa (9-0 with 6 KOs). His striking is crisp and accurate, and he has moves that nobody else has, spinning and kicking from angles that Lyota Machida would envy. His mission tonight is to find a way to beat the lanky veteran, Terry Etim (15-3 with 12 submissions). Again, a contrast in styles, as Barbosa wants to bang and Etim wants to grab a limb, like a Venus Fly Trap eating its prey. Another FON candidate here, this one should be entertaining. Home cookin' prevails. Barbosa at -285 wins a three-round decision. Who's next?
Now let's take a quick look at the five-fight undercard.
Two Brazilians will battle when Erick Silva (13-1 with 7 subs) takes on grizzled veteran Carlo Prater (29-10-1 with 16 subs). Prater is no easy out, but up-and-coming Silva should win this decision. No value at -550 tho' so another PASS is in order.
Brazilian featherweight, Yuri Alcantara (26-3 with 11 KOs and 12 subs), is on a tear, winning 18-of-his-last-19 fights, including winning his UFC debut. Michihiro Omigawa (13-10-1) is another Japanese fighter who has disappointed UFC fans. And, turning that around on hostile soil just ain't going to happen. Lay the -190 on Alcantara to win a unanimous decision.
Two more Brazilians face off with heavyweights Gabriel Gonzaga (12-6) trying to stop unbeaten 6'7" Edinaldo Oliveiera (13-0-1 with 8 KOs), making his UFC debut . Gonzaga will forever be remembered for his highlight reel head kick of Mirco Cro Cop, that started the demise of the Croatian. Gonzaga is that rare breed of heavyweight, whose submission game is as good as it gets. His only losses are to elite fighters like Randy Couture, Junior Dos Santos, and Fabricio Werdum. Gonzaga wins by 2nd round key-lock submission. Why is Gonzaga only -125?
Middleweight Rousimar Palhares (13-3 with 9 subs) is a chiseled, muscular speciman. He is a gorilla-built limb breaker. Losses to Nate Marquardt and Dan Henderson are about all that blemishes his resume. Mike Massenzio (13-5) was submitted by Brian Stann, a striker. That spells T-R-O-U-B-L-E here. Palhares wins by first round heel hook submission. Very predicable result, and that's why the odds are so steep at -550. I'm a bridge jumper.
And finally, I'll take a chance on +175 underdog, Brazilian Felipe Arantes (13-4) to win a close decision over Canadian Antonio Carvalho (13-4). Both have 6 KOs in 13 wins and are mirror images of each other. Quality of competition and value in the betting line anchor my thoughts.
Now, let's take a look at what we can do with our fictitious $1000 bankroll. Please wager only with money you can afford to lose! There is no such thing as a "sure bet" in mixed martial arts fighting. So gamble at your own risk.
Here we go:
Let's lay $100 to win $240 on Chad Mendes shocking Aldo's Brazil.
Let's lay $105 to win $100 on Vitor Belfort stopping Rumble.
Let's lay $125 to win $100 on Thiago Tavarez choking out Sam Stout.
Let's lay $168 to win $60 on Edson Barbosa's magic.
Let's lay $145 to win $100 on Yuri Alcontara's streak continuing.
Let's lay $150 to win $120 on Gabriel Gonzaga's pedigree.
Let's lay $165 to win $30 on a ridiculous Rousimar Palhares joint breaker.
Let's lay $40 to win $70 on home town underdog, Felipe Arantes.
And, we'll PASS on Pyle/Funch and Silva/Prater.
That's 6 favorites, 2 underdogs, and 2 no plays.
In total we are risking $998 to win $820. We'll save the remaining $2 for a rainy day. But does it ever rain in Brazil?
Don't forget to give part of your winnings to your local youth wrestling program, where tomorrow's champions are born.
Enjoy the fights. I know I will.
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