Photo/Zuffa LLC via Getty ImagesEvent: UFC 141: Lesnar vs. Overeem
Venue: MGM Grand Garden Arena (Las Vegas)
Date: Dec. 30, 2011
Two giants headline the last UFC card of the year. Former Minnesota NCAA wrestling champion Brock Lesnar (5-2) returns to the Octagon after more than a year off due to his continued bout with diverticulitis, a stomach ailment that has required two surgeries for the former champ. His opponent is the intimidating, kickboxing Dutchman Alistair Overeem (35-11 with 33 finishes!). This former Pride and Strikeforce legend has won 13 of his last 15 fights in the first round! His resume of victims is a 12-year collection of who's who in MMA. And, he hasn't lost in over four years!
OK, you're thinking that Lesnar, a wrestler with enormous size, speed, and strength will use his patented double leg takedown to plant Overeem on his back, right? Well good luck with that! Overeem shucks off wrestlers like he's swatting mosquitoes on a Sunday picnic. A kick to the head or a powerful right hook will end this fight early in the second round. A future title fight with Junior dos Santos awaits. Take Overeem and lay the modest -135. Lesnar and Marty Morgan go back to the drawing board.
In what could very well be the Fight of the Night (FON), red-hot lightweight Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone (17-3 with 13 submissions) takes on the younger of the Diaz brothers, Nate (14-7 with 10 submissions). Nate is coming off an impressive armbar submission of Takanori Gomi. while Cerrone has been destroying everyone not named Ben Henderson. This will be a tactical battle with lots of striking, and both fighters trying to go to the mat for submissions, their strength.
Cerrone is the better striker and uses his kicks more effectively. He trains with Jackson's MMA and has also been working on his wrestling technique, his one weakness. Diaz has trouble with wrestlers. Everything Cerrone does is to set up his sharp submission game. But Diaz, a Cesar Gracie blackbelt, is nearly impossible to submit. That's what makes this fight so intriguing. The price is steep, but I'm laying the juice with Cowboy at -275. A unanimous decision is the call. Let's also lay some dough on this being the FON at +250 odds. How could it not be?
I love welterweight Johny Hendricks (11-1 with 6 KOs), you know what I'm sayin'? This brash Okie State two-time NCAA champion likes to bang, and has a vicious uppercut in his arsenal, to go along with his great wrestling abilities. Former Purdue wrestler, Jon Fitch (23-3-1), is a grinder who has lost only to Georges St. Pierre in the last eight years! Wow, think about that. One loss in eight years! He is coming off a draw with BJ Penn, who then got out-boxed by Nick Diaz.
This is a great opportunity for Hendricks, and Fitch is coming off shoulder surgery, so maybe the door is open? I'll give it a shot. Despite Fitch's amazing record and run in the UFC, I think Johny Hendo will find a way to win this one, either by a stunning KO, or by a close decision. The +195 price tag is a steal.
Light heavyweight Vladimir Matyushenko from Belarus (26-5) is a 40-year old who has been fighting MMA for 14 years! Yet today he still delivers iron in his fists and can outwrestle and control his opponent better than most. He is coming off a TKO victory over the tough Matt Hamill. But, can he stay upright against the 24-year old rising star of Alexander Gustafsson (12-1 with 8 KOs), whose only loss is to Phil Davis? I don't think so. Sixteen years of age difference spells trouble for Vlady.
I think this fight will be guns a blazing from the opening bell, with Matyushenko trying to get Gustafsson to the mat. Instead he will eat leather until the ref stops it late in the opening round. Gustafsson wins by by TKO at -280.
Rounding out the main card, lightweight Nam Phan (17-9) is best known for his two toe-to-toe wild swinging affairs with Leonard Garcia. He has never been submitted. Well, meet young Jim Hettes (9-0), who has won all of his fights by submission, using five different techniques! This should be interesting. Phan will look for the KO, while Hettes will bide his time looking for that one opening to grab a limb or secure a chokehold. He's been perfect in that quest, and I'll take my chances that he can do it again at underdog odds of +195. A second round rear-naked choke ends this one. Take Hettes, and grab the underdog odds.
Now let's take a brief look at the undercard filled with light-weight and welterweight fights........
Diego "Gun" Nunes (16-2) should get past a determined Manny Gamburyan (11-6), who has lost his last two to champion Jose Aldo and Tyson Griffin. A close decision cashes for Nunes at -275.
Matt Riddle (5-3) has fought all his fights in the UFC. He needs a win to continue his journey. Newcomer Luis Ramos (19-7) comes off his UFC debut getting knocked out in just 40 seconds by Erick Silva. Riddle wins by rear-naked choke submission at cheap odds of -125. I think I will wish I had placed more on Riddle.
Efrain Escudero (18-3) has been disappointing in the UFC. But he's back trying to end Jacob "Christmas" Volkmann's four-fight winning streak. Volkmann, a former Minnesota All-American wrestler, likes to outwrestle and control his opponent. Tonight Escudero shows he is back with a stunning triangle choke submission. Take the generous +215 underdog odds.
Dong Hyun "Stun Gun" Kim (14-1-1) has made a career of fighting at tight quarters and winning with strikes. His only loss was a KO in his last fight to Carlos Condit, who is fighting Nick Diaz on Super Bowl weekend for GSP's interim welterweight belt. Sean Pierson (11-5) also has KO power, but no enough to derail Stun Gun. Kim wins a unanimous decision at a bridge-jumping price of -360.
Journeyman gatekeeper Danny Castillo (12-4) may have his hands full with Anthony "The Assassin" Njokuani (14-5 with 8 KOs). In a back-and-forth striking battle, Castillo wins with a close split decision. The -175 odds seem reasonable to me.
And, Ross Pearson (12-5) is technically strong with his striking and should have enough to get past former WEC fighter, Junior Assuncao (13-4), who is riding a seven-fight win streak of his own. Pearson wins a unanimous decision at -260 odds.
So now let's try to turn around our temporary losing streak, and see what we can do with our fictitious $1000 bankroll.
Let's lay $135 to win $100 on Alistar Overeem's UFC debut.
Let's lay $110 to win $40 on Cowboy Cerrone to stop Nate Diaz.
Let's lay $15 to win $37 on Diaz/Cerrone being the FON.
Let's lay $60 to win $114 on Johny Hendricks' shocker over Jon Fitch.
Let's lay $112 to win $ 40 on Alexander Gustafsson to retire Matyushenko.
Let's lay $50 to win $ 97 on Jim Hettes' submission streak to continue.
Let's lay $104 to win $ 40 on Ross Pearson.
Let's lay $70 to win $ 40 on gatekeeper Danny Castillo.
Let's lay $108 to win $ 30 on a Dong Hyun Kim bridge jump.
Let's lay $50 to win $107 on Efrain Escudero to upset Christmas.
Let's lay $75 to win $ 60 on Matt Riddle, and wish we had bet more.
Let's lay $110 to win $ 40 on Diego Nunes.
In total we are risking $999 to win $745 with eight favorites and three underdogs. "Let's get 'er done!" See you at the winner's window!
Don't forget to give some of your winnings to your local youth wrestling program, where tomorrow's champions are born.
Enjoy the fights. I know I will.
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