Venue: HP Pavilion (San Jose, Calif.)
Date: Nov. 19, 2011
Two Pride Fighting legends, light-heavyweights, Maurico "Shogun" Rua (20-5) and Dan "Hendo" Henderson (28-8) take center stage in a rare five round non-title fight. Dana White, UFC President, is starting to add two rounds to many of the non-title main events, a policy I agree with. But Saturday night five rounds won't be needed, as two of the games most lethal strikers will go toe-to-toe until one of them drops. It's Hendo's overhand right against Shogun's kicking and knees. This should be quite a fight while it lasts!
Dan Henderson has NEVER been knocked out after more than a dozen years of fighting at the sports' top level. And, I could certainly see the former Olympian grabbing a Shogun knee and planting himself on top of the Brazilian, and showering him with nasty elbows and punches in bunches. But then I could see a much quicker and younger (by 12 years) Shogun attaching with a relentless pace of coordinated strikes and winning a convincing decision, if he doesn't gas as he has been known to do.
Henderson has won six of his last seven fights, since being submitted by Anderson Silva. His only loss was a shocking stunner to Jake Shields. In a fight that could go either way, the betting value here lies with the underdog Henderson at +120, and my heart says to take Hendo, but my wallet thinks otherwise, as I see Shogun as the more athletic, quicker, younger, more well-rounded fighter. I'm letting my intuition make my play. Take Shogun Rua at -140 to become the first man to TKO Dan Henderson early in the third round.
Bantamweight (135 pounds) Uriah Faber (25-2) once was considered unbeatable. But time has taken its toll, but the ever popular former WEC champion now has his sights set on becoming a UFC champion. His opponent Brian Bowles (10-1) shocked the MMA world three years ago when he stopped Miguel Torres, who was 37-1 at the time. Both have lost to champion Dominick Cruz. These lightweights will be active and exciting as each tries to flow from striking to wrestling to submission attempts. Perhaps a good candidate for Fight of the Night (FON)? Faber is huge for his weight class, and he has the most experience, and a better, more rounded fight game. The "California Kid" should win a unanimous decision. Lay the -220.
Two middleweight (185 pounds) strikers Cung Le (7-1) and Wanderlei "The Ax Murderer" Silva (33-11-1) will entertain the crowd as each tries to take the other's head off. The legendary Silva was unbeatable in his prime, but those days are long gone, and he has now lost six of his last eight, and will soon be retiring, or he isn't forced into it by Dana. Cung Le has been making movies. He avenged his only loss to hard hitting Steve Smith. I think Le will get the better of this, and the -145 is cheap. Le by second round KO.
Rick "The Horror" Story (13-4) is a welterweight (170 pounds) beast, good enough to beat Johny Hendricks, Jake Ellenberger, and Thiago Alves. Wow. His opponent is Dutchman, Martin Kampmann (17-4), one of the premier strikers in the game with a vastly underrated ground game. Kampmann has lost two in a row (Shields and Diego Sanchez), and needs to avoid a potential pink slip in a deep sport that doesn't tolerate 3-loss streaks! Kampmann finishes his opponents. Story has never been finished. In another great fight, I'll go with Story based on physical strength and superior wrestling ability. Laying -140 is more than reasonable.
The last of the main card fights includes the "American Psycho", light-heavyweight (205 pounds) Stephan Bonner (13-7) trying to slow down rising star, Kyle Kingsbury (11-2), who has won four in a row in the Octagon. in another competitive fight, I think Kingsbury is the better athlete, stronger, and the better wrestler. The striking is even, Bonner owns the jits. And a submission victory will be what Bonner is looking for. But Kingsbury prevails, and wins a close decision, cashing for those of us laying the -140.
Now let's take a quick look at the undercard of seven fights.
Arizona State's Ryan Bader (12-2) has lost two in a row and needs to get back on track. Both losses were by submission. And his opponent, Jason Brilz (18-4-1), owns nine submission wins! More trouble for Bader? Only if he can't use his superior strength to stay out of it, or if he hasn't worked on submission defense like he should. Bader's over-powering slugging will be the difference here. A slugfest turns into some Bader ground-and-pound. A second round TKO ends it. Bader at -220, the play.
Two lightweight (155 pounds) Brazilians will show off their ground games and try to submit each other, when Gleison Tibau (24-7) takes on Rafael Dos Anjos (15-5). Both have had some surprising KO wins, but both are stronger jui-jitsu fighters. I like Dos Anjos in a mild upset here. Take the +150 on the ‘dog.
Thirty year old Miguel Torres (39-4) opened his MMA career 37-1, and was considered one of the best pound-for-pound fighters on the planet. Today he's an MMA analyst and broadcaster, who isn't quite ready to give up the fight game. Nor should he. His vast experience and more developed skills should be no contest for Nick Pace (6-2). Both have lost to "Mighty Mouse" Demitrious Johson, another Dominick Cruz victim. Torres wins by first round rear-naked chokehold and cashes at -325.
Welterweight Matt "The Immortal" Brown (12-10) has had nine UFC fights, but continues to struggle, losing eight times by submission! But Brown keeps getting fights because of his relentless, forward-pushing striking and kicking. His style is fun to watch until he gets dragged to the Matt and gets submitted. And his opponent, Seth Baczynski (14-6) is a lanky submission expert. History repeats again. Another 'dog cashes. As much as I want to bet on Brown, the value lies elsewhere. Take the +125 on the "Polish Pistola".
"Filthy Mauler" Tom Lawler (7-3) is a middleweight who brings it ever time out. Chris Weidman (6-0) is a former Hofstra All-American, and a better athlete, who should have enough in his toolbox to keep his unbeaten streak alive. I'll go with Weidman and lay the -350. Third round TKO.
Danny Castillo (11-4) is a WEC veteran coming off a loss to Jacob Volkmann in the UFC. Shamar Bailey (12-4) is getting no respect from bookmakers here. I'll take the juicy at +260 on Bailey, hoping to squeak out a close decision.
Michael McDonald (13-1) is only 20 years old. That's amazing. He takes on an undefeated Alex Soto (6-0-1), who makes his UFC debut. Interesting matchup. McDonald at -380 wins by TKO in the second round.
Okay, that's it, a dozen fights, and a great card. Now let's see how we can do with our fictitious $1000 bankroll.
Let's lay $70 to win $50 on Shogun Rua to beat Dan Henderson.
Let's lay $110 to win $50 on Uriah Faber.
Let's lay $84 to win $60 on Rick Story.
Let's lay $87 to win $60 on Cung Le.
Let's lay $56 to win $40 on Kyle Kinsbury.
Let's lay $136 to win $40 on Ryan Bader to get back on track.
Let's lay $40 to win $60 on Rafael Dos Anjos.
Let's lay $130 to win $40 on Miguel Torres.
Let's lay $ 40 to win $50 on Seth Baczynski.
Let's lay $105 to win $30 on Chris Weidman.
Let's lay $30 to win $78 on Shamar Bailey.
Let's lay $114 to win $30 on Michael McDonald.
In total we are risking $1002 to win $588. Don't forget to share your winnings with your local youth wrestling program, where tomorrow's champions are born.
Enjoy the fights. I know I will.
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