Venue: LG Arena (Birmingham, West Midlands, England)
Date: Saturday, Nov. 5, 2011
Saturday's UFC 138 ticket will be broadcast free on Spike TV on a taped-delayed basis for those interested in viewing a step down from recent UFC cards. There are no title fights, and the card is full of Brits, as you would expect, as Dana White continues to market his product worldwide. Brazil, Japan, Germany, your next ... But that isn't to say that there aren't some pretty good fights to watch.
Before we look at the card, let me give you a little bit of UFC Monster history. I began writing for RevWrestling.com (now InterMatWrestle.com) with a preview of UFC 56, many moons ago. After thirteen issues of picking winners at an incredibly high percentage, I thought it would be fun to test my picks against the oddsmakers' lines with a "fictitious" $1000 bankroll. My contract with Rev was modified to give me a piece of that action. I was to receive a percentage of the ROI (Return on Investment). And, so the tracking began ...
After more than 60 articles, The UFC Monster stands tall with a 59% winning percentage! Unfortunately, after investing $47,779.50, I have LOST $529 for Rev and InterMat readers!!! I'm sorry, and, I owe InterMat for the privilege of working with their team ... for free.
These results and archived previews are shown below.
One last thing: I would like to thank the senior staff at InterMatWrestle.com, especially Andrew Hipps, for letting me write articles with no censorship or forced wrestling bias being forced upon my selections. I am not a shill for amateur wrestling. I call 'em as I see 'em. Wrestlers often win, but not always.
Middleweight Mark Munoz (11-2) is one of the more brutal ground-and-pounders in the game. His opponent, Chris "The Crippler" Leben (22-7), not only has an iron chin, but he has a left hand full of dynamite. Both are on their game, and the winner will be positioning themselves for a title shot soon. Munoz is by far the better wrestler and that will be the difference here. It looks easy on paper. We know what it looks like. A dominant wrestler controls his opponent on the ground, and pounds him into submission, before the ref stops the action. The only drawback is avoiding Leben's thundering punches as Munoz goes for the takedown. And, avoiding getting an arm trapped in a submission hold during the g-n-p exhibition. Take Munoz and lay the -250. A second round TKO ends this.
Brazilian Renan Barao has an unbelievable 26-1 record with his only loss being his first fight six years ago! This submission freak takes on former WEC tough guy Brad Pickett (20-5), whose arsenal is diverse and complete with six KOs, nine submission, and five decision wins. Pickett is a Brit making his UFC debut. I see this as a standup affair until Pickett lands a haymaker. Barao will then grab his opponent and try to mangle him into a pretzel. That being accomplished, a disappointed crowd will see the raised hand of a Brazilian jui-jitsu expert as Barao rolls in the second at -130 odds.
Thiago Alves (18-8 w/11 KOs) is a beast. His thickness has caused him to go up to the middleweight ranks. He brings rapid and painful kicks with a strong striking game, yet his brute strength and takedown defense often pits his opponents against the cage and eating knees. His opponent is Swedish newcomer Papy Abedi (8-0), a judo expert with five KOs. Let's see now ... one guy is making his UFC debut. The other has had 15 UFC fights, going 10-5. Who do you want? Alves -300 is a lock. First round KO perhaps?
Terry Etim (14-3 with 11 submissions) is a lanky lightweight with a lot more experience than Edward "Who?" Faaloloto (2-2). Two-and-two? That makes the UFC card? You're kidding me? The bookmakers don't think it's so. You need to lay $6 to win $1 on Etim. That's called bridge-jumping.
Light heavyweight Cyrille Diabate (17-7-1) has won seven of eight, and is on a roll. Anthony Perosh (11-6) has been erratic in the UFC and even lost to Mirko Cro Cop, who has lost three in a row and recently retired. Not a good sign for Perosh. Diabate is an expensive -355, but worth the gamble. Diabate wins a unanimous decision.
Now let's look at the obscure undercard and try to find some more winners ...
Welterweight Che Mills (13-4) is a popular Brit who has a strong enough game to squeak by a determined Chris Cope (5-1). Mills at -225 is the play here. Unanimous decision.
Two Brits will go toe-to-toe when heavyweights Phil De Fries (7-0 with seven submissions) and Rob "The Bear" Broughton (15-6) tangle. A heavyweight with the ability to submit his opponents is always a good bet over one who can't. De Fries is my play at -140. Let's go with an arm bar submission in the second.
Japanese lightweight judo expert Michihiro Omigawa (12-10-1) has been a UFC bust and needs a victory tonight to avoid a pink slip. He should be able to do that over a local Brit, Jason Young (8-4 with four decisions). Decisions aren't popular with the UFC fan base. And Omigawa needs a finish like a dead man needs a coffin. He gets with a late first round rear-naked chokehold. Lay the -275.
Vaughan Lee (11-6-1) will be fighting in front of his hometown fans in Birmingham. Chris "Kamikaze" Cariaso (11-3) will be trying to derail him with his Muay Thai tactics. I'll take a chance on the home town 'dog here. Lee wins a split decision at +165.
Welterweights John Maguire (16-3), another Brit, and Justin Edwards (7-1), are evenly matched and this fight could go either way. I'll avoid the coin flip and pass on this action.
Now let's see how we can do with our "fictitious" $1000 bankroll.
Let's lay $125 to win $ 50 on Mark Munoz.
Let's lay $91 to win $70 on Renan Barao.
Let's lay $150 to win $50 on Thiago "Pitbull" Alves.
Let's lay $120 to win $20 on a Terry Etim bridge jump.
Let's lay $142 to win $40 on Cyrille Diabate.
Let's lay $ 90 to win $40 on Che Mills's UFC debut.
Let's lay $77 to win $55 on Phi De Fries.
Let's lay $165 to win $60 on Michihiro Omagawa keeping his career alive.
Let's lay $40 to win $66 on hometown boy, Vaughan Lee.
... and let's pass on MaGuire/Edwards.
In total, we are risking $1000 to try and win $451. There is little room for error. But let's give it a shot. I could use a payday!
And, don't forget to share your winnings with your local youth wrestling program, where tomorrow's champions are born.
Enjoy the fights. I know I will.
UFC Monster's Past Results
Recommended Comments
There are no comments to display.
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now