Venue: MGM Grand Garden Arena (Las Vegas)
Date: January 1, 2011
Let's get this New Year off to a rockin' start with a plateful of winners as we try to find weaknesses in the Vegas betting line. It is the UFC Monster's mission to help readers make a profit from mixed martial arts wagering. Because of the narrow base of MMA bettors and the difficulty in oddsmakers staying ahead of the fans, investment opportunities often present themselves for the astute handicapper. So let's get to work and break down the Vegas line as it pertains to tonight's UFC 125 card.
The UFC starts out this New Year with a very competitive fight card featuring the lightweight title match between two former collegiate wrestling standouts, champion Frankie Edgar (13-1) from Clarion and Gray "The Bully" Maynard (10-0) from Michigan State. Edgar's only loss was a non-title affair with Maynard two years ago. In that fight, the Bully earned his nickname as he used his size and power to dominate in a clear decision victory. That's why oddsmakers have made Maynard the favorite despite the fact that he's the challenger. Maynard's style isn't a good fit for Edgar, or so the bettors believe. But we know how hard a worker Edgar is, as he outscored the legendary B.J. Penn in two consecutive fights, and that may be the case here, as well. Of the combined 23 wins that these two fighters have, 16 have been by decision. Neither fighter is a finisher, and the UFC likes finishers.
The value may actually lie with the champion here, but I see it being very difficult for Edgar to use his technical boxing skills for five rounds to avoid a collision course with Maynard. Maynard will eventually bring Edgar to the mat and that's when it gets ugly. A close decision goes the way of Maynard as he covers the –145 impost. Bet the prop bet that this fight goes the distance.
Middleweight Chris "The Crippler" Leben (25-6 with the orange hair) is a crowd favorite. Winning three in a row, Leben has looked like a Zombie unable to be stopped by a human being. His hands of lead work well with his head of stone. Surprising, this banger is amazingly good on the ground and can lock a submission up in seconds. Brian "The All American" Stann (9-3) will have his hands full. The Iraq War veteran has shown a determination and striking ability that makes for an interesting fight. A tattooed punk against a clean-shaven, patriot ex-Marine. Hmmmmm.
I like Leben here despite the –160 price, which I think is fair. Leben owns the Octagon experience, and his confidence has grown recently with his impressive wins. This exciting fight will end in the second round when Leben connects with a powerful left hook that ends it.
Light heavyweight Brandon Vera (11-5) has lost five of his last eight fights, and most recently to Jon Jones and Randy Couture. He is fighting for his UFC life tonight, and his first class Muay Thai skills give him a chance. But Thiago Silva (14-2) will be more than happy to oblige a slugfest. Silva slits your throat with his powerful and sudden knockout abilities. And the Brazilian is also a black belt in jui-jitsu. His only losses have been to Lyota Machida and Rashad Evans. Nothing to be ashamed of.
In what could be a very exciting and active fight, I think Thiago will have the inside edge to win this, if he can avoid the relentless leg kicks that Vera will administer. I'm looking for a third-round KO from Silva, but a judge's decision for Vera wouldn't surprise me. Thiago will have to fight a smart fight to win. Vera is a cagey veteran fighting for relevance in a deep weight class of fighters. Take Thiago Silva and lay the –135.
Nate Diaz (13-5 with 9 submissions) is moving up in weight again to fight as a welterweight against undefeated Dong Hyun Kim (13-0-1), a dirty boxing striker, who effectively controls his opponent's body. But doing that with Diaz won't be easy. This is a classic striker against submission fight. But Diaz likes to paw as well. His awkward looking striking is getting better and his lanky frame and long reach create problems. The key here is for him to realize that his best shot is with a takedown to the mat and some of that Cesar Gracie jui-jitsu. Ego often gets in the way and makes good fighters forget their strengths as they try to stand and strike with a macho flair. I like Diaz here at +110 underdog odds. The weight won't matter as Diaz's game is all arms and legs. I hope to see a third round submission by triangle choke.
Lightweight and former Pride champion Takanori Gomi (32-6) is coming off a stunning first-round KO over Tyson Griffin, the first man to put him out. Tonight, Gomi is matched up with the very popular crowd-pleasing Clay "The Carpenter" Guida (27-11), whose moppy hair and aggressive attacking make him a UFC icon. You get your money's worth when Guida fights, and this should be no exception. This should be everybody's favorite for "Fight of the Night." Make that prop bet if you can. I think Guida's 12 fights inside the Octagon (7-5) will be the difference here. Gomi is on foreign soil. Guida wins a decision. At –150 I think the price is reasonable.
That finishes up the main card, now let's take an abbreviated look at the undercard. If you can figure out how to get ION TV, you can watch the next two fights for FREE.
No lightweight hits harder than Jeremy Stephens (18-6). And his opponent Marcus "The Irish Hand Grenade" Davis (17-7) will stand and trade punches with him. Davis is a great boxer, but Stephens wrestling will be the difference here. Stephens by second round ground-and-pound TKO. Lay the –255 on Stephens.
Former WEC fighter Josh Grispi (14-1) should show a stronger skill set in beating another WEC fighter Dustin Poirier (8-1). Grispi by second-round choke to cash at –260.
Veteran Phil "The New York City Badass" (13-12) Baroni has lost his last five fights in the Octagon. He is lethal early with devastating punching power, but easily gases as the fights wear on. He has become gold for those who bet against him. Brad Tavares (6-0) is a green unkown, and hopefully good enough to get Baroni into the empty zone. Tavares at –210 by third-round TKO is the play here.
Dan Roberts (11-1 with 8 submissions) will lock one up on Greg Soto as a slight –110 'dog. Roberts wins by rear-naked choke in the first round.
Former WEC champion Mike Brown (24-6) was on quite a run, including beating Uriah Faber twice, before getting dethroned by the amazing Jose Aldo. Tonight's task isn't easy against 15-1 Diego Nunes, but I believe Brown has the wrestling savvy to control where this fight takes place. Brown –260 by decision.
Chiropractor and former three-time AA from Minnesota Jacob Volkmann (11-2) should outwrestle 40-year old veteran Antonio McKee (25-3-2, with 18 decisions), who is making his UFC debut. Volkmann wins a decision as a generous +190 underdog.
Now let's see what we can do with our "fictitious" $1000 bankroll.
Let's lay $116 to win $80 on "The Bully" Gray Maynard.
Let's lay $96 to win $60 on Chris "The Crippler" Leben.
Let's lay $95 to win $70 on Thiago Silva.
Let's lay $60 to win $66 on Nate Diaz, Nick's younger brother.
Let's lay $90 to win $60 on Clay "The Carpenter" Guida.
Let's lay $102 to win $40 on Jeremy Stephens.
Let's lay $130 to win $50 on Josh Grispi.
Let's lay $105 to win $50 on Brad Tavares to send the NY Badass packing.
Let's lay $44 to win $40 on Dan Roberts.
Let's lay $130 to win $50 on Mike Brown and wish we bet more!
Let's lay $30 to win $57 on the Minnesota chiropractor, Jacob Volkmann.
So, in all we are risking $998 to try and win $623. We will need some luck and we will need some fighters to simply fight to their form. I like our chances of showing a profit!
Don't forget to share your profits with your local youth wrestling program, where tomorrow's champions are born.
Enjoy the fights. I know I will.
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