Venue: Palace of Auburn Hills (Auburn Hills, Michigan)
Date: November 20, 2010
The UFC Monster took the UFC 122 card from Germany off, as it was one of the lamest cards I can remember. Tonight's UFC 123 action is anything but lame. Any number of the card's matches could qualify as "Fight-of-the-Night." There's lots of action and some very interesting matchups. So let's break down tonight's card and try to make some holiday cash! Bookmakers beware: It's time to rob from the rich, and give to the poor ...
Former Pride champion Quinton "Rampage" Jackson (30-8) is coming off a loss to former light-heavyweight champion Rashad Evans. Former champ Lyota "The Dragon" Machida (16-1) is also coming off his first career dethroning loss, a first-round beating at the hands of Shogun Rua. These are two hungry fighters coming off losses, and both display drastically different fight styles. Rampage is a street thug slugger with amazing wrestling and takedown skills. Machida is an incredibly illusive and unorthodox karate master. He has had a remarkable UFC run of 8-1, having gone the first seven fights without losing a single round! Total dominance.
You can't beat Machida if you can't hit him. And therein lies the edge in tonight's fight. Rampage is a brute, and will aggressively chase the counter-punching Dragon. Growing frustrated with his inability to land strikes, Rampage will cause his own demise by taking chances. He will either get caught and find himself lights out on the mat, or he will look feeble as Machida gains an easy decision. Either way, I'm laying the –260 on Machida to win a fight tailor-made to his style.
In the rubber match of three fights between former welterweight champion and Hall-of-Famer Matt Hughes (45-7) and former lightweight champion B.J. Penn (15-7-1), we have a great battle of two fighters who genuinely don't like each other. In 2004, B.J. went up in weight to catch an overconfident Hughes with a first round boa constrictor-like rear-naked choke. Hughes got his revenge two years later by putting a fatigued B.J.'s body into a crucifix, blasting shots at B.J.'s bald head. It wasn't pretty. But that was then and this is now.
Hughes is on an impressive three-fight win streak, submitting Ricardo Almeida, KO'ing Renzo Gracie, and dominating Matt Serra. B.J. is coming off two, yes two, straight losses to Frankie Edgar, former Clarion wrestler. The oddsmakers opened the line two months ago with B.J. being a slight underdog. The public, including me, bet him early and often, and drove the line to B.J. being the favorite at –165! That's a HUGE line movement, my friends. This is a three-round fight. So B.J. won't have to worry about his cardio in rounds 4 and 5. I see B.J. stuffing the takedowns of Matt Hughes, and timing his openings to take a powerful second round KO win. If Hughes is successful in grounding B.J., that's not where you want to be either. Hughes' days of over-powering opponents is over. B.J.'s jiu-jitsu is lethal. B.J. by KO. Lay the –165.
Lightweight George Sotiropoulos has stream-rolled through his UFC opponents, unbeaten at 6-0 in the Octagon. Sotiropoulus uses his world-class jits to exterminate his foes. His long, lanky frame makes for leveraged submission moves. But for those who saw Joe Lauzon's (19-5) lightning-fast transition into a devastating armbar against Gabe Ruediger last time out, know that Lauzon is not an easy out. This would probably be my choice for "Fight of the Night," as I anticipate back-and-forth strategy with changes from striking to mat work throughout. I can't stay off the value of getting Lauzon at +200 here. Let's hope for a close decision win to send us to the winner's window.
Former Penn State NCAA champion and still undefeated MMA fighter Phil Davis (7-0) takes on big Tim Boetsch (12-3), a lead-fisted slugger, who will have his hands full on the mat, where this fight will most likely take place. A great wrestler will beat a slugger every day of the week. But at –600, Davis is too steep to play. I see an easy decision for the Nittany Lion, but I'll have splinters on the bench for this one.
Former Cleveland State wrestler Gerald Harris brings an impressive 17-2 record with 10 straight wins and 5 straight KOs into the Octagon to do battle with Brazilian KO freak Maiguel Jose Falcao Gonclaves (25-3), who has had an amazing 21 KOs, mostly in the first round. Does this sound like a toe-to-toe slugfest, or what? It will be until Harris decides to go to the mat, where his superior wrestling skills will take control. Some brutal ground-and-pound will end this in the second round. I'll lay the –260 on Harris here.
Now let's take a brief look at the glorious undercard ... FREE on Spike TV are two preliminary fights, and they should be good ones.
Kick, strike, strike, strike, kick, kick, strike, kick, strike, strike, kick, strike, strike ... That's Matt Brown (11-9). Relentless attacking. A fan favorite. And a +130 underdog here against Brian Foster (14-5). I love Brown as a 'dog. A close decision will do. Experience rules. This is another great "Fight of the Night" candidate.
When two great wrestlers get together, you often end up with a standing fight instead. Aaron "A Train" Simpson (7-1) takes on "The Phillipino Wrecking Machine" Mark Munoz (8-2) here, and anything can go. I give the edge to Munoz on experience. His brutal ground-and-pound will end this once he takes Simpson to the mat, which won't be easy. –150 is a reasonable price on Munoz.
Veteran lightweight Tyson Griffin (14-4) is one of the best wrestlers in the UFC. But his opponent, Nik Lentz (19-3-2), has a strong wrestling background, as well. Griffin was the first to beat WEC's Urijah Faber, and he was the first to KO purple-haired Hermes Franca. But coming off his first KO himself (to Takanori Gomi), who knows how Griffin will rebound. I'm taking a chance here on the + 170 underdog Lentz to have enough to steal a split decision.
Welterweight Karo Parisyan (19-5) is a judo freak. His tosses and leverage throws are fun to watch. But he has had a career full of set-back injuries, and he has never been able to reach his full potential. Dennis Hallman (49-13-2) is a legendary fossil with two wins over Matt Hughes on his resume. But those wins were a decade ago. Tonight he is fighting for his UFC relevance. So we have two fighters beyond their prime, fighting to survive in the sport and stay employed by the UFC. Sounds like fun to me. I'll take Parisyan by decision, and lay the modest –150.
British lightweight Paul Kelly (10-3) like to stand and trade punches. Iowa's T.J. O'Brien is certainly the better wrestler here, and staying with that safe theme on a wrestling website like this, puts me in the underdog camp again here. I'll pull for O'Brien's upset at +145 with a judge's unanimous decision determing the outcome.
I can't wait to see the replay of bomb-throwing Edson Barbosa when he tries to take submission artist Mike Lullo's (8-1) head off. I can't bet the fight at –500, but I did make a prop bet saying Barbosa would have tonight's fastest KO at odds of 5:1.
So that's it. Five favorites, four underdogs, and two no plays. Let's see how we can do with our "fictitious" $100 bankroll.
Let's lay $260 to win $100 on Lyota Machida to silence the Werewolf.
Let's lay $165 to win $100 on B.J. Penn to bury Matt Hughes.
Let's lay $130 to win $50 on Gerald Harris surviving Brazilian Goncalves.
Let's lay $100 to win $200 on Joe Lauzon's skill set. Great value here.
Let's lay $105 to win $70 on Mark Munoz derailing the A Train.
Let's lay $60 to win $78 on Matt Brown's determination.
Let's lay $50 to win $85 on Nik Lentz to outscore Tyson Griffin.
Let's lay $90 to win $60 on Karo Parisyan to out-battle Dennis Hallman.
Let's lay $40 to win $58 on T.J. O'Brien to upset Paul Kelly.
Let's lay low and pass on Davis/Boetsch and Barbosa/Lullo.
In total we are risking $1000 to win $801. Let's hope for the best!
Don't forget to give some of your winnings to your local youth wrestling program, where tomorrow's champions are born.
Enjoy the fights. I know I will.
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