Venue: O2 Arena, London, England
Date: October 16, 2010
After a long winning streak, I got nicked a bit on the UFC 119 card. But history shows quick rebounds for the UFC Monster, and tonight’s challenge will be to find winner’s on one of the lamest fight cards in UFC history! Maybe that’s why tonight’s (tape delay) show is FREE on Spike TV at 7 pm CST? Anytime Michael Bisping headlines the card, you are in trouble, unless you are in England, but that’s just where we are tonight!
In the main event, Brits once again get to see their hero, light-weight, Michael Bisping, take on veteran Yoshihiro Akiyama, in what should be a relatively easy win for “the Count." Bisping is only popular inside his homeland, but there is no denying that his skills have progressed nicely over his modestly successful UFC career. Some early fireworks will lead to an eventual second round TKO thru ground-and-pound, and Bisping will send the crowd home in glee covering the –200 price tag.
In my “fight of the night” at 2:1 Carlos “Natural Born Killer” Conduit will trade shots and submission attempts with powerful Brit Dan Hardy, who once had a shot to beat Georges St. Pierre for the welterweight championship. The blood-thirsty Conduit will force the pace, but it will be Hardy’s striking that makes the difference. A victories over Marcus Davis and convinced me that Hardy’s the real deal. A close judge’s decision will validate the –170 risk. And, two-to-one on the F-O-N will be frosting on the cake!
Undefeated (14-0) John “Hitman” Hathaway is perhaps the best England has to offer. He has rolled through his opponents, including his last impressive win over Diego Sanchez! And, he has shown no indication that that will change tonight. Mike Pyle is dangerously good. He has shown guts, courage and determination, as well as a full palate of mixed martial arts skills. That won’t be enough, however, to de-rail the Hitman. And the British crowd will once again be treated to some world-class fighting. Hathaway is the biggest favorite on the card tonight. But, a small bridge-jump at –500 is in order here. A first round KO wins this one.
I love watching heavyweight Cheick Kongo fight. He’s a beast that makes Godzilla look puny. And he can fire bombs!!! And, his atrocious ground game has improved. And, as long as he’s not fighting a submission guru like Frank Mir, he will always have a chance to win. Less experienced, but still undefeated (10-0 w/8 KOs), 6’7” Travis Browne is coming off a debut UFC win over James McSweeney (see elsewhere on this card). Browne has a puncher’s chance in my opinion, but this one looks like another “W” for Kongo to me. A brutal second round TKO will stop this affair.
Another TUF show fighter, James Wilks is currently on the fringe of the UFC. He desperately needs to win to keep on rolling, another loss and he may soon be looking for another venue to show his wares. His opponent, Claude Patrick, has only one loss to Drew McFedries, and that was 8 1/2 years ago! In a fight that has me wondering why it is even on the main card, I see only modest interest in investing either way. But Patrick’s submission skills will be the difference, and a rear-naked choke ends this midway through the fight. Lay the –165 on Patrick.
Now let’s take a brief look at the undercard.
Former WEC light-heavyweight champion Steve Cantwell suffered a knee injury a few days ago and is out for his fight with Stanislav Nedkov. There was not enough time to find a substitute, so Nedkov claims his “Show” money, and Cantwell slides down the food chain.
I’ll pass on the heavyweight slugfest between Fabio Maldonado and James McSweeney. The UFC always puts a couple of lead-fisted swingers into a the Octagon for crowd pleasing results. The Brazilian may show off some jui-jitsu skills, but McSweeney will swing for the fences and with a losing record there is not enough hope to warrant the +200 offering. I think Maldonado wins this one, but I won’t be betting on it any time soon!
With a name like Vinicius Kappke de Quieroz you better know how to fight (and spell). Superior submission skills will provide a winning wager for me here. The ref will pull Quieroz off the body of his victim, Rob Broughton, late in the first round. I’ll be standing at the winner’s window with my –170 ticket. Quieroz by TKO.
Undefeated (10-0) Paul Sass is another local British hero, who has submitted nine of his 10 opponents. Maybe this should be “the fastest submission” prop bet for the night? Laying just –180 looks like FREE money to me. His opponent, Mark Holst is inexperienced, but hopeful. What am I missing here? I’ll call this submission victory 10 for Sass as he advances his UFC career.
Alexander Gustafsson has shown some serious and precise boxing skills in the UFC. He is quick and well-rounded, and is a slight favorite to defeat Frenchman, Cyrille Diabate. I like the even-money ‘dog here, and I’m hoping for a triangle choke to end this one somewhere before the bell sounds. A mild upset.
Spencer “The King” Fisher is a fan favorite. He gives everything he has and relentlessly stalks his opponents with a repertoire of striking and wrestling skills. His ground game is grossly under-rated. Very few fighters have had has many fights or successes in the Octagon. But, the end is near. Fisher is showing his age and wear. Will he have enough left in the tank to take out debuting Kurt Warburton? I’m betting on it! Fisher is my play at –205.
Well, that’s it for another hopefully exciting night of mixed martial arts fights. And, it’s all FREE tonight on Spike!
Now, let’s see if we can do the math and make some fun money with smart money management skills with our “fictitious” $1000 bankroll ...
Let’s lay $150 to win $75 on Michael Bisping.
Let’s lay $85 to win $50 on Dan Hardy.
Let’s lay $150 to win $30 on a Hathaway bridge jump.
Let’s lay $111 to win $60 on Cheik Kongo’s KO power.
Let’s lay $99 to win $60 on Patrick’s jits.
Let’s lay $108 to win $60 on Sass’ submission streak.
Let’s lay $85 to win $50 on de Quieroz.
Let’s lay $60 to win $60 on Cyrille Diabate.
Let’s lay $102 to win $50 on Spencer Fisher’s career to stay alive.
Let’s pass on McSweeney vs. Maldonado. Better safe than sorry in a slugfest!
So, in total we are risking $1000 to try and win $520.
Let’s not forget to take some of our profits and support your local youth wrestling programs, where tomorrow’s champions are born!
Enjoy the fights. I know I will.
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