Venue: TD Garden Arena (Boston, Massachusetts)
Date: August 28, 2010
Let's forget about UFC 117's long list of upsets that halted the UFC Monster's winning streak, and take a look at the long anticipated rematch of B.J. Penn and Frankie Edgar, and the laughable matchup of Randy "The Natural" Couture and James "Lights Out" Toney. Wrestler vs. Boxer, a true circus sideshow. Then throw in a "Fight of the Night" matchup with local hero Kenny Florian, trying to be the first to defeat "The Bully," Gray Maynard. And, let's add two world-class submission artists, Demien Maia and Nate Diaz, fighting two sluggers, Miranda and Marcus Davis, and tonight's PPV card is awesome. Plus, there is the bonus of getting two preliminary fights (Lentz vs. Winner, and Lauzon vs. Ruediger) for FREE on Spike TV. With some quick finishes we will most likely see replays of the other three preliminary fights, as well.
In the lightweight title fight between champion B.J. Penn, and challenger Frankie Edgar, I was the only one on the planet (outside of the East Coast) who bet on Edgar and cashed as a big 'dog. I knew the only way Frankie could win that fight was to out-point B.J. and earn a decision. He fought brilliantly and did just that! Why not again? … and why is he a +250 'dog? Why? Because B.J. Penn will finish him tonight and make a statement. The judges can sit on their hands because I think B.J. will catch Edgar early with some powerful punches and quickly have him in a world of trouble on the mat. B.J. wins by first round submission, and leaves no doubt as to who will own the 155-pound division. Lay the -300, and I'll see you at the winner's window (again).
Bridge jumping in this sport is always dangerous. And, let's not forget that a washed up former boxer, Ray Mercer, needing money desperately, knocked out former UFC heavyweight champion, Tim Silvia, in a matter of seconds. So weird stuff happens.
But in my worst nightmare I just can't see Randy "The Natural" Couture, our legendary hero, getting KO'd by a fat, out of shape James Toney in a 15-minute misadventure. Can you? I see Toney having about 10 seconds to try and throw a connecting bomb onto Randy's chin, before the Greco beast drills him with a double leg takedown pinning him to the mat. From there it will be ground and pound to teach all boxers a lesson in MMA, and then Randy will nicely transition to an arm bar submission and leave poor James licking his wound and searching the floor for his pride. I got down at -550.
Middleweight Demien Maia has shown us what his jiu-jitsu skills are all about. His body triangle will suck the life out of your very existence. And, I suppose one could argue that his striking skills leave him vulnerable to those who can keep him standing. Marquardt put him out in a matter of seconds. Miranda has accurate striking skills as well. But when these two Brazilians tangle, I think Maia will find his opening, and when you see that happen, and this thing goes to the mat, you will also see me heading towards the winner's window. Laying -215 on Maia looks cheap to me.
The UFC Monster has been in some hot water with InterMat writers on my next pick. I like Kenny "KenFlo" Florian at -155 to hand Gray "The Bully" Maynard his first loss. Wrestling worshippers point out that not only is Maynard undefeated (giving Edgar his only loss!), but he has consistently man-handled his opponents and "bullying" them on the ground. He doesn't finish fights, but he wins. That makes him unattractive to UFC powers, who want crowd-pleasing finishers, not judge's decisions. So, herein lies the problem for Maynard. He will take chances, and he will get caught. KenFlo is a better striker, and a better submitter. That leaves Maynard in his best scenario, laying on top of KenFlo, hoping to rack up points. But that will fail when Kenny's razor-sharp elbows open up some nasty cuts on Maynard's forehead, and the blood flow stops this match … told you so.
Now let's see what will happen on the undercard.
On FREE Spike TV, you can watch wrestler Nik Lentz pull a mild upset at +105 against striker Andre Winner. And you can see Joe Lauzon at -345 show off his long leg wrap submission skills as he beats Gabe Ruediger, who may be a very nice guy, but has no place on this fight card to continue a UFC career.
I think Mike Pierce is worth the risk at -260 as his wrestling superiority should be enough to defeat Alves. Dan Miller should get back in the win column at -275 with a submission victory over Salter, who was to have fought Phil "New York Bad Ass" Baroni, who was actually favored to beat Salter! And, I will listen to some wise Asian advice and bet on Soto as a growing +165 underdog to upset Nick Osipczak.
Okay, so now let's see what we can do with our "fictitious" $1000 bankroll.
Let's lay $210 to win $70 on B.J. Penn to finish Frankie Edgar.
Let's lay $300 to win $60 on Randy Couture embarrassing James Toney.
Let's lay $107 to win $50 on Demien Maia's world class submission skills.
Let's lay $62 to win $40 on KenFlo to give Maynard his first defeat.
Let's lay $100 to win $50 on punk brother Nate Diaz subbing Irish Hand Grenade.
Let's lay $69 to win $20 on Joe Lauzon's triangle choke.
Let's lay $55 to win $20 on Dan Miller's lethal guillotine choke.
Let's lay $52 to win $20 on Mike Pierce's superior wrestling skills.
Let's lay $20 to win $33 on Soto.
And, let's lay $25 to win $27 on Nick Lentz in a mild upset.
In all, we are risking an even $1000 to win just $380! Why?
Because our sides have clear-cut advantages in fighting styles, experience, motivation, and all the intangibles that go into making champions. Not that our opponents aren't formidable. But, often in MMA you will see large numbers of favorites winning, and there is a reason for that. Tonight I see very little advantage in playing longshot underdogs, who most likely will be laying flat at the end of their matches.
At any rate, have fun and enjoy the fights. I know I will. And, PLEASE don't bet with money that you cannot afford to lose!
Don't forget to share any winnings with your local youth wrestling program where tomorrow's champions are born!
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