Venue: Oracle Arena (Oakland, California)
Date: August 7, 2010
After coming off a winning UFC 116 night of $458 in profit for InterMat readers, it will take a near perfect card to best that in a night full of great mixed martial arts fights for UFC 117. My record is well documented in the archives of this Web site. My mission is to find weaknesses in the oddsmakers' betting lines, and apply them to give InterMat readers an edge in making some additional money in UFC wagering. But ALWAYS remember that the first rule of gambling is to NEVER play with money you cannot afford to lose! For those who can afford to take chances, the challenge tonight will be to get our favorites through with victories, and hope that my handicapping skills and bookie-busting experience get the job done. Let's give it a shot.
Tonight's featured match is the middleweight (185 pounds) championship as strong wrestler Chael Sonnen (26-10-1) tries to solve the Anderson "Spider" Silva's (26-4) pure dominance in the sport. The Spider has won all 11 of his UFC fights, never close to losing, and has become bored with the challenges. Coming off an embarrassing verbal taunting and easy decision of Damien Maia, a man who submitted Sonnen in the first round, Silva has been criticized and boo'ed for his lack of effort. All that will change tonight.
As much as Sonnen has used his trash-talking technique to hype the fight, the truth of the matter is that Sonnen will find himself laid flat before the bell sound for the second round. Either a knee to the head from a bull-rush takedown attempt, or a triangle choke submission if he does get Anderson to the mat, will end this one quickly for Sonnen. He will look like a chump as the Spider raises his hand once more. Easy money. The bridge jump is warranted. Lay the lumber. I got on Spider at -400.
Heavyweight killer Junior "Cigano" Dos Santos (11-1) has lightning quick striking and underrated jiu-jitsu skills. His opponent is the recently crowned TUF champion, Roy "Big Country" Nerlson (15-4), who despite his flabby, beer-gut appearance has lead in his fists and a surprising submission game the traps you under his brutal ground-and-pound. The winner may get a shot at the Brock Lesnar/Cain Velasquez winner, so much is at stake here. Tho' a bit steep in price, I'm taking athleticism here and dropping my dough on Dos Santos at -290. Cigano by first round TKO.
When lightweights fight in the UFC, you can be guaranteed plenty of action. But when Clay "Tthe Carpenter" Guida (26-8) fights, you will think your TV remote is stuck in fast forward. He goes and goes and relentlessly goes, usually ending up bloodied for his efforts, but often with his raised as well. Brazilian Rafael Dos Anjos (14-4) brings a strong jui-jitsu game to an underrated striking attack. This fight is a candidate for "Fight of the Night," tho' I have other thoughts. In what is basically a toss-up fight, I will be making a small play on Guida at -110 to win a close decision. This should be an entertaining fight.
In what I will be betting is the "Fight of the Night", welterweights Jon Fitch (25-3) and Thiago "Pitbull" Alves (22-5) will have rematch of a fight they had four years ago when surprisingly, Fitch gave Alves his only TKO loss. But Alves has progressed radically since that day, and I believe he will be hungrier to win the rematch, despite his failure to make weight! He now loses 20 percent of his purse as penalty, and this should make the Pitbull even more rabid! I like that. The winner gets a rematch for GSP's title, if he gets by Koscheck again. I respect the former Purdue wrestler's awesome UFC career, but tonight is not his night. Thiago Alves wins this one with a second round TKO at a bargain price of even money.
Of all the betting lines that surprised me the most, this next fight caught me off guard. I thought the bookies would make welterweight UFC legend Matt Hughes (45-7) the favorite to defeat Ricardo "Big Dog" Almeida (12-3). UFC fan polling told me the same, as nearly 75% feel that Hughes should win the fight. So why did the oddsmakers open with Big Dog a -155 favorite? Because "Big Dog" is going to win, and the bookies know only the "smart money" will follow. And it has, driving the odds to Almedia -180 and beyond. I think Hughes has looked awful for about two years now. He will look like he should retire after Almedia makes him tap in the second round. Smart money is on Almedia minus whatever…..
Now let's take a quick look at the exciting undercard …
Welterweight Dustin Hazelett (14-5) will use his lanky frame and superior jits to submit Rick "The Horror" Story (10-3) with a second round triangle choke. He's a bargain at -115.
How can you not like former wrestling bad guy from Oklahoma State Johny Hendricks (8-0)? He has been methodical in his destruction of opponents in the octagon. Apparently he wrestled tonight's opponent, Charlie "The Spaniard" Brenneman (12-1) back in 2004, but can't remember it. Hendricks can win this fight any way he wants. A small bridge jump at -400 will be in play here.
I love welterweight Ben "Killa B" Saunders' (8-2-2) knees. They put money in my bank account, and will do so again tonight as they wipe out old veteran Dennis "Superman" Hallman's (64-13-2) chances of a UFC victory. Man, Hallman's had 80 mixed martial fights and his resume includes two victories over Matt Hughes on it! Who woulda thunk? One fighter is on the rise, the other is on the decline. Saunders cashes for me at -240 with a third round TKO over a game Hallman.
Finally, 6'11" heavyweight Stefan "Skyscraper" Struve (23-4) will pick on someone almost his own size when he takes on undefeated (8-0) UFC newcomer, 6'8" Christian Morecraft, who hasn't had a fight outside of Massachusetts. Asking him to fight in Hell's Angels country in front of a sell-out crowd against such an experienced fighter won't bode well for the rookie. I like Skyscraper Struve, and am laying the reasonable -190.
Middleweight Rodney "Shonuff The Master" Wallace was supposed to fight Stansilav Nedkov, but an injury to Nedkov put undefeated former Penn State Division I national wrestling champion Phil "Mr. Wonderful" Davis, into the cage with him. And, that's not a good thing. A vast reach advantage and superior skills will make this look easy for Davis. But at -700, I can't play it and will pass on the action here.
Same with heavyweight bomb-throwers Tim Boetch and Todd Brown. Botsch went from a big underdog against Thiago Silva, to a big favorite over Brown, when Silva got injured and pulled out of the fight. I'm on the sidelines here, too.
So, that's it 11 fights with action on nine. Let's now take a look at how we can wisely spread our betting action to maximize the profits of our "fictitious" $1000 bankroll.
Let's lay $200 to win $ 50 on Anderson Silva to make a statement over Sonnen.
Let's lay $145 to win $ 50 on Jr. Dos Santos to make Roy Nelson look over-matched.
Let's lay $55 to win $ 50 on Clay Guida's energy and "no quit" fighting style.
Let's lay $70 to win $ 70 on Pitbull Alves to dominate and get his revenge over Fitch.
Let's lay $124 to win $ 80 on Big Dog Almeida sending Matt Hughes into retirement.
Let's lay $92 to win $ 80 on Hazelett to win by submission, and wish we had bet some more!
Let's lay $100 to win $ 25 on Johny Hendricks to stay unbeaten.
Let's lay $95 to win $ 50 on Skyscraper Struve and his octagon experience.
Let's lay $120 to win $ 50 on Killa B Saunders and his lethal Muay Thai.
In all we are risking a dime ($1001) to win a nickel ($505) in gambler's lingo.
It will take a near perfect effort on my part to do so, but that's what makes it so challenging. I like my sides more than my opponents. And, my money will do the talking. Let's not forget to share our winnings with your local youth wrestling programs, where tomorrow's champions are born.
And, for crying out loud, guys, for all the winners I am giving you, there is no excuse for not reciprocating with an InterMat Platinum subscription (less than $35/year) to this outstanding Web site! So PLEASE sign up today, or you may find future picks no longer free of charge.
Good luck and enjoy the fights! I know I will.
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