Venue: MGM Grand Garden Arena
Date: May 29, 2010
Coming off a rare brutal performance in UFC 113, the UFC Monster isn’t too excited about tonight’s mixed martial arts card from a gambler’s point of view. With the exception of the main event, the much awaited hate-fest between Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and Rashad “Suga” Evans, there appears to be little betting value with many high-priced favorites and few barking ‘dogs. So, we will keep this short and simple.
If you follow my plays tonight, you will be laying an average of $2 for every $1 you want to make. And, you will need to win more than two out of three fights to make any money. If you continue to read this article, you will be risking your hard-earned cash to bet that eight (8) out of the eleven (11) fights listed below will go the way that I predict ... If that it too steep for you, then please move on, and find any Mark Palmer article to read on this Web site. Mark is a great contributor to this Web site. He knows and respects the history of wrestling. You will benefit from his knowledge.
Now, on to the fights ...
Take Rashad Evans (19-1-1) at –115 to take care of business with Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (30-7). Rashad is the better athlete. Rampage hasn’t fought in 15 months, due to making a movie after a mental meltdown a few months before. Rampage was the early favorite, but public money has moved towards Evans. I like the former Spartan All-American with a decisive decision.
Michael “The Count” Bisping (19-3) is an obnoxious Brit who is much the better striker than his opponent Dan Miller (11-3), whose specialty is chokehold submissions. But Bisping’s never been submitted, and I don’t see it happening tonight. Striker beats submission with a third-round stoppage by TKO. Take Bisping. Lay the –160.
Heavyweight slugger Todd Duffee is undefeated at 6-0. Mike Russow (12-1) has his hands full. Toe-to-toe slugging will please the fans. Duffee wins by KO and covers the –325.
The best bet on the board is that Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (18-3), Minotauro’s twin brother, will submit Jason “Hitman” Brilz (18-2-1). The juice is high, and this is for bridge-jumpers only, but my coin is on the –550 favorite. Nogs sub in the second.
Lat time out, Diego “Nightmare” Sanchez (23-3) got his forehead torn open by a blood-eating BJ Penn. Tonight he tries to rebound with a win over the undefeated Brit, John “The Hitman” Hathaway (13-0), who likes to bang and is lightning quick in his wrestling abilities, transitioning into submission holds. But, Sanchez is a face full of knees, and tonight one of them lands on Hathaway’s chin. Nightmare cashes at –200.
On the undercard, you will be able to see two (2) fights for FREE on Spike TV. Those are the first two listed below.
Young, improving Amir Sodollah (4-1) will have his hands full with still undefeated veteran Dong Hyun Kim (12-0-1 w/1 NC). Sodollah will try to kick his way to victory, while Kim will use his dirty boxing and superior striking to win a judge’s decision. The modest underdog will pay around +110.
Efrain Escudero (13-1) will display a superior set of skills against Dan “The Upgrade” Lauzon (12-3), an eccentric brawler looking for a submission. The public is pounding Escudero. Lay the –450.
Melvin “The Young Assassin” Guillard (42-9-3) needs a new nickname. He isn’t “young” anymore. But he is still an obsessed beast on a mission. And, he will steamroll his opponent tonight, Waylon Lowe (8-2), who will get his first octagon experience. It won’t be a good one. Guillard at –300 wins in the very first round with some vicious ground-and-pound beating.
Luiz “Bahna” Cane (11-2-1) will get back on the winning track tonight with a 2nd round KO over Cyrille “The Snake” Diabate (16-6-3). This one costs you –355.
Aaron Riley (28-12-1) is an unkempt brawler who always puts on a good show. I think his vast octagon experience will carry him to victory by decision over Joe “The South Side Strangler” Brammer (7-1-1). Riley’s a reasonable –185.
And, finally, I was hoping to get Jesse Forbes (13-5) as an underdog, and he opened at +120. But the bettors have driven the odds to make him now a –125 favorite (and as much as –160 at some books). He’s bigger, stronger, and will find a way to survive a capable Ryan Jensen (15-5). Forbes by decision.
So, lots of favorites. Maybe not enough ‘dogs. Betting UFC fights and laying –200 can be hazardous to your wallets, but that’s what tonight’s card looks like to me. Let’s see if we can squeeze out a profit with the following money management plan:
Let’s see what we can do with our “fictitious” $1000 bankroll.
Let’s lay $115 to win $100 on Rashad Evans to beat Rampage.
Let’s lay $96 to win $60 on Michael Bisping.
Let’s lay $130 to win $40 on Todd Duffee’s KO power.
Let’s lay $110 to win $20 on a Nogueira bridge-jump.
Let’s lay $120 to win $60 on Diego Sanchez to get back on track.
Let’s lay $50 to win $55 on Dong Hyun Kim in our only upset.
Let’s lay $90 to win $20 on Efrain Escudero to dominate on the ground.
Let’s lay $90 to win $30 on Melvin Guillard to overwhelm.
Let’s lay $71 to win $20 on Banha Cane to bounty hunt.
Let’s lay $74 to win $ 40 on Aaron Riley to prevail in a street brawl.
Let’s lay $ 50 to win $ 40 on Jesse Forbes.
In all, we are risking $996 to try and win $485. It will be hard work to cash, but hopefully, we have enough winners on our side!
Let’s give the extra $4 to our cocktail waitress. And, please don’t forget to share your winnings with your local youth wrestling program, where tomorrow’s champions are born!
Enjoy the fights. I know I will.
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