Venue: Concert Arena, Ferrari World, Yas Island (Abu Dhabi, UAE)
Date: April 10, 2010
It is a rare occasion that the UFC has two title fights on one card. But the UFC 112 card from a remote place across the world (Abu Dhabi) has not only that, but also is the first UFC event ever to be held at an outdoor stadium.
It is the mission of the UFC Monster to find betting value in the Las Vegas lines of UFC fights. Since the sport is relatively new, with oddsmakers struggling to set accurate betting lines on the fights, plus a relatively small, but volatile, betting base that can drastically move the line, a knowledgeable bettor has a great opportunity to make some money here! Anyone who has followed my picks, has cashed more winners than losers, and could now be living on free lifetime InterMat Platinum subscriptions! So let's see what we can do with this intriguing card.
Two of the world's premier fighters defend championships today, lightweight BJ Penn and middleweight Anderson "Spider" Silva. Let's take a look at those matches first.
Anderson "Spider" Silva has not lost in the Octagon. He hasn't even had a close fight. His pinpoint striking with kicks and punches, combined with devastating Muay Thai clinch power has allowed him to mow through his opponents and take fights outside his weight class, seeking new challenges. The skinny Spider at 185 pounds is considering skipping a weight class and finding new challenges at heavyweight! With Silva's unchecked striking power, it is easy to forget that he also owns a black belt in jui-jitsu! Who can stop this man?
Demian Maia (12-1) can. But it will take an incredible submission to do it. And with a ridiculous betting value of +600 placed on the challenger, I am going to take my chances here. You certainly don't make money betting against Anderson Silva (25-4), but Maia has a unique skill set that may allow him to pull the upset. In his own words, "A spider has many legs, maybe I'll get one. "In other words, he will wait until the Spider strikes, then grab an appendage, and pull guard to the ground. Once on the mat, Maia will isolate the limb at risk, and force the sudden submission with adrenaline flowing, and shock the world! Maia wins with a unique second round choke/armbar combination, with the Spider suffocating from a lethal body triangle. This is the "Fight of the Night."
BJ "The Prodigy" Penn (15-5-1) is the best 155-pounder in the world. Bar none. End of discussion. Like Silva, BJ floats outside his weight class looking for new challenges, like Georges St. Pierre at 170 pounds or Lyota "The Dragon" Machida at 205. He's fought them both. Tonight, he fights Frankie "The Answer" Edgar (11-1). Is there any way Edgar can win this? Yes. He can score with a few early punches, stunning the champion, outwrestle him and get BJ to the mat, where NOBODY wants to be, and somehow manage to control BJ's position throughout five long rounds, while avoiding getting submitted by a man whose gumby-like limbs and floating joints defy science. It will take a miracle, but miracles do happen. BJ is human, after all. Edgar has worked his entire lifetime waiting for this chance. He gets better with every fight. He will give BJ a battle for the ages. And, I think he can do it the old fashioned way, win by scoring more points in the judge's eyes. And, again at +600 odds, I will roll the dice on the former Clarion wrestler. Edgar wins a close split decision.
Who doesn't appreciate the famous Gracie family and all that they have done for the sport of mixed martial arts? The 43-year-old Renzo Gracie (13-6-1) makes his Octagon debut against future Hall-of-Famer Matt Hughes (44-7) in a welterweight match, where Renzo is trying to avenge his cousin Royce's embarrassing defeat against Hughes in UFC 60. Royce took a beating. His submission skills were ineffective. The Gracie clan had shown failure. Earlier this year, Royler Gracie looked lethargic and awkward in getting pounded by a longshot opponent. Renzo was in the corner. Believe me, Renzo is determined, confident (if not a bit over confident), and certainly skilled enough to take down the once unstoppable Illinois farm boy.
Cockiness is Hughes trademark. He is not worried about Renzo's arsenal. He expects another weak-winded affair from an overrated opponent, lacking punching and takedown power. That's dangerous thinking. A boa constrictor is a boa constrictor. They suck the life out of you and leave you suffocating from lack of oxygen. This is what I expect to see here, Renzo Gracie getting the back of Hughes, locking in his hooks, and oh so sloooooooooowly, wrapping up a rear-naked choke to end this one in the third round as a +350 underdog!
That's my three-team underdog parlay, gentleman. If they all win, I can retire. If just one of the above gets the job done, the UFC Monster is heading to the winner's window. If none of my long shots hit, I will know better than to bet against the sports elite. I mean how can I lose? There is value in each.
Now let's fill out the main card.
Lightweight Rafael Dos Anjos (13-4) came into the UFC with much attention paid to his Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills. Instead Dos Anjos has gotten into the trap of trying to prove his manlihood through striking. If he does that with the lanky Terry Etim (14-3), this will be a short fight. Etim wins by KO. But my gut tells me that the end is near for Dos Anjos in the UFC unless he can quickly find his MMA roots again. My bet is that he will, and at underdog odds of +135, I'm betting that he does. A second round submission ends this one, as Dos Anjos grabs a long arm and attempts to mangle it from Etim's body.
Another lanky striker, middleweight Kendall Grove (13-6) takes on former NCAA wrestling champion Mark Munoz (7-1) in a contrast of styles. Munoz will want to take this to the mat rather than strike with the rapid roundhouses of Grove. Grove will use his kicks to keep Munoz at distance, but it will only be a matter of time before the dominant wrestler controls his opponent. Munoz will hope that his ground-and-pound will overwhelm Grove before Kendall gets off an armbar submission in retaliation. Grove's ground game is underrated, but I think Munoz will have enough in the tank to get the job done. I'm laying -160 that he does.
Now let's take a quick look at the undercard.
Penn State NCAA wrestling champion Phil Davis (5-0) is a light heavyweight beast. With broad shoulders and no waist, he is lightning quick for his size, powerful and dominant, with fearsome striking ability, and an improving ground game. That's a plateful for a one-dimensional striker like Alexander Gustafsson (9-0). When two unbeatens meet, anything can happen. But this one won't last long. After dodging a few early haymakers, Davis will bring pin Alex to the mat with a vicious takedown. Once there, the elbows and fists will fly, until Steve Mazzagotti pulls "Mr. Wonderful" off the beaten fighter. For bridge jumpers only, lay the -500.
Brit Paul Taylor (10-5-1) is a great kicker. He comes at you with reckless abandon, pressing the pace and using effective combinations of punches and kicks to neutralize opponents. He is a seasoned warrior, as is his opponent, John "Guns" Gunderson (22-7). Taylor is a more rounded fighter and he gets the three-round decision here. But you will need to lay -250 to cash your ticket.
Nick Osipczak (5-1) will have his hands full with Rick "The Horror" Story (9-3). But in a mild upset, I'll give Nick a shot at +140 to grind out a decision victory in this one.
Welterweight "Bad" Brad Blackburn (15-10-1) is a quick striker who will look to control DaMarques Johnson (15-7) on his feet. A determined Johnson will fall short as a second round KO will end this one with Blackburn raising his hand at -160.
I've seen Paul Kelly look like an unstoppable power machine. He is a strong striker with decent kicks and a marginal ground game. And, that's where he gets in trouble here. Oddsmakers are banking that Matt Veach (11-1) will dominate this fight from the ground through his vastly superior wrestling abilities. I think they are right. I'm laying the -275 with Veach, a former Iowa State wrestler, which seems a bit steep, but I'll stick with my thoughts. A winner is a winner is a winner.
When two brawling heavyweights are thrown to the lions, I rarely watch. Saturday's sacrifice is between Jon Madsen (4-0) and struggling Mostapha Al Turk (6-5). Yes, 6-5. The loser goes home never to return to the UFC. The winner hangs around for a while, and gets fed as red meat to the next up-and-comer. I don't care who wins and I have no interest in betting on such matters. It looks like a bar brawl to me! No action for the UFC Monster on this one.
Okay, now let's see what we can do with our "fictitious" $1000 bankroll.
Let's lay $50 to win $300 on Demian Maia to submit the Spider.
Let's lay $50 to win $300 on Frankie Edgar outscoring BJ Penn.
Let's lay $100 to win $350 on Renzo Gracie redeeming Royce's loss to Matt Hughes.
Let's lay $80 to win $108 on Rafael Dos Anjos finding his "jits" against Terry Etim.
Let's lay $128 to win $80 on OSU's Mark Munoz over Kendall Grove.
Let's lay $175 to win $35 on Phil Davis in a bridge jump over Alexander Gustafsson.
Let's lay $150 to win $60 on Britain's Paul Taylor over John Gunderson.
Let's lay $60 to win $ 84 on Nick Osipczak over Rick Story.
Let's lay $ 96 to win $60 on Brad Blackburn over DaMarques Johnson.
Let's lay $110 to win $40 on Matt Veach to pin Paul Kelly to the mat.
Let's pass on the two heavyweight brawlers, Jon Madsen and Mostapha Al Turk.
In all, we are risking $999 to win $1417. Let's hope for the best. We are riding some very big underdogs here!
And, let's not forget to give some of our profits to your local youth wrestling program, where tomorrow's champions are born.
Enjoy the fights. I know I will.
Recommended Comments
There are no comments to display.
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now