Venue: Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey
Date: March 27, 2010.
The UFC returns to the East Coast tonight as it resumes its pay-per-view parade of great mixed martial arts fights. Tonight's featured fight is a welterweight championship bout between hard-hitting Englishman Dan Hardy (23-6) and champion Georges St. Pierre (19-2), who is coming off an injury. Heavyweights, Frank Mir (13-4) and undefeated Shane Carwin (11-0) will decide the interim championship, with the winner facing a recovering Brock Lesnar. Stomach ailments almost ended his career! The rest of the card has many interesting fights, as well, so let's take a look at the action and see if the UFC Monster can keep his winning streak alive. InterMat readers who would have followed my advice would now be lifetime InterMat Platinum subscribers. But remember, only gamble with money you can afford to lose.
There are no sure things in betting, but GSP beating Dan Hardy is about as close as it gets. Is there any reason to think that St. Pierre won't pin Hardy's back to the mat in the opening seconds of this fight with a locomotive, steam-rolling, double-leg takedown? And, once there, he will reign down with those vicious elbows, until the ref pulls him off. Hardy's only hope is to unload and land his first punch. I have better odds of winning tonight's Powerball. Take GSP at any price if you can find someone foolish enough to take it!
Does anyone dislike Brock Lesnar more than former heavyweight champion Frank Mir? I don't think so. And big Frank is ready to break Shane Carwin's arm tonight to prove it. Mir wants a final re-match with Lesnar in the worst way, but stopping Carwin's unbelievable first round KO streak will the obstacle in his way. Carwin has never seen the second round! And he won't tonight either. As scary as Shane Carwin is, the sight of a 250-pound Mir grabbing an appendage and twisting it off your body is even more frightening. After dodging a few punches, Mir will soon lock up with Carwin, and before you know it, the will be sprawling on the ground. The next thing you will see will be Mir with his hand raised, Carwin's face in pain, and the UFC Monster headed to the winner's window again! Lay the -150.
Welterweight Jon Fitch (24-3) may be the best wrestler in the UFC. He was supposed to battle jui-jitsu slugger Thaigo Alves, but the Pitbull is out with some potentially serious head issues. We wish him the best in his recovery. So, Muay Thai, knee-kicking Ben Sauders (8-1-2) enters the octagon as a late substitution. Saunders was already on the card, scheduled to fight popular wrestler Jake Ellenberger, and now Jake is the odd man out. No fight for him tonight. I am taking a longshot hunch that Saunders may just be lucky enough to grab the back of Fitch's neck, and put his lethal plume around it, as he unloads those crushing knee strikes up against Fitch's crumpling body. Of course, to do that, he will need to avoid being dragged to the mat by Fitch, which is no small feat. That's why he is a +325 underdog. But, Saunder's is a dog that bites. I'm giving him my bone.
This next fight between lightweights Jim Miller (16-2) and Mark Bocek (8-2) is more of the same. I think Miller is the better all-around fighter, bigger, stronger, betrter striker, and with "lights out" submission skills. But I think Bocek gets better every time out, and he needs just a little opening to strike like a cobra. What will that opening be? Let's call it a quick reversal that leads into a rear-naked choke, BJ Penn style, as he pulls the big upset. Take Bocek +375 as the value is too good to pass up.
Lightweight Kurt "Batman" Pellegrino (20-4) has been around forever. His opponent Frabricio "Moerngo" Camoes (10-4-1) is in a due-or-die situation where another loss will most like be his UFC pink slip. I'm not sure why this match is on the main card, but I'll make a solid play on Pellegrino -210 to win by submission.
On the undercard, the first two fights can be seen FREE on Spike TV tonight.
Nate Diaz (11-5) needs to turn his losing streak around. He will do that tonight with another long-legged triangle choke over slugger Rory Markham (16-5) in this lightweight match. Lay the -260.
I love the way Matt "The Immortal" Brown (13-7) fights. He brings it. He never backs up. He strikes with fists, elbows, and knees. He kicks and he punches, and he kicks and he punches, and he punches and he kicks. Ricardo "Big Dog" Almeida is cutting weight and cutting weight, and is now entering the Octagon as a welterweight. Not a good idea. His attack will be to go to the mat with Matt and trying a submission. He's also favored to do so. I like Brown's value at +140. I'm playing another 'dog here.
In a middleweight bout, I see Rousimar "Toquinho" Palhares (19-2) defeating Tomasz "Gorilla" Drwal (17-2) by armbar submission. Lay the -220 and hope that Palhares doesn't get knocked out.
Matt Riddle (3-1) is an awesome leg-rider and top fighter. His mission tonight is to stop undefeated Greg Soto, 7-0, in another welterweight match-up. He earns a decision doing so at a reasonable -220.
Who is Rodney "Shonuff The Master" Wallace (9-1)? And what about the guy he is fighting, Jared Hamman (11-2)? I guess we will see what these light heavyweights can do when they make their Octagon debuts tonight. My research puts me on Wallace to win by knockout. I'll lay the modest -130.
So let's see how we can do with our "fictitious" $1000 bankroll.
Let's lay $180 to win $30 on GSP.
Let's lay $150 to win $100 on Frank Mir.
Let's lay $ 40 to win $130 on Ben Saunders.
Let's lay $ 40 to win $150 on Mark Bocek.
Let's lay $105 to win $50 on Batman Pellegrino.
Ley's lay $130 to win $50 on Nate Diaz.
Let's lay $60 to win $ 84 on Matt Brown.
Let's lay $110 to win $50 on Rousimar Palhares.
Let's lay $110 to win $50 on Matt Riddle.
Let's lay $65 to win $50 on Rodney Wallace.
So all-in-all, we are risking $990 to win $744. Let's give the remaining $10 to your local youth wrestling program, where tomorrow's champions are born!
Enjoy the fights. I know I will.
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