Venue: Manchester Evening News Arena (Manchester, England)
Date: November 14, 2009
In a rare free Spike TV showing of the UFC, fight fans get to see the legendary Randy Couture (16-10), the 46-year-old Greco Roman ruler, in the featured fight against a younger, quicker, and very athletic Muay Thai fighter Brandon Vera (11-3), who has won seven of his 11 wins by KO. This fight card is loaded with European fighters, mostly British, but two Americans will slug it out in this featured event.
Randy Couture and UFC MonsterI think Vera will come out kicking, trying to end it with a high, powerful head kick. But Randy covers up well and it will be only a matter of time before he grabs his younger opponent and schools him against the cage with some dirty boxing and eventually tosses him to the mat where he will mount him in Couture style and give him a lethal dose of a ground-and-pound beating. The ref will stop this midway through the second round. Take Couture and lay the -125. Randy's back!
Hometown hero, middleweight Michael "The Count" Bisping (18-2) had won 15 in a row before losing a split decision to former Michigan State wrestler, Rashad Evans. He has since been KO'd by former Olympian Dan Henderson. His opponent is the very experienced Dennis Kang (32-11-1), who has spent most of his MMA career fighting in Japan. Kang's highly-touted fight game is diverse with 12 KOs and 15 submission wins on his resume. He is somewhat vulnerable to being submitted, but that is not Bisping's game. Michael's a striker, with sharp accuracy, fighting in front of a large fan base.
In what I see as a "toss-up" affair, I will take the slight value on Bisping at +115 to win a hometown decision. This will be the first time I have ever bet on Bisping. I hope he rewards my risk. Both fighters desperately need a win to advance their careers in the UFC.
The winner of the welterweight fight between Mike "Quick" Swick (14-2) and Nottingham native Dan "Outlaw" Hardy (22-6) gets a shot at the title against Georges St. Pierre, who is currently out with injury. Neither has a snowball's chance in H*** of capturing that belt, but tonight's fight should be a dandy, and probably the leading candidate for "Fight of the Night" -- a 6:1 wager.
I see both fighters standing toe-to-toe, macho-style, mano-a-mano swinging away until someone crumples. This one may not escape the first round! And when the dust clears, my money will be on Quick Swick standing tall over the outrageous Mohawk man, another KO notched in his belt. I'll lay the -200 (and going up …) that the American will be fighting the Canadian GSP on Super Bowl weekend. While Swick gets a first-round KO. Hardy gets a headache.
The main card is rather lame with welterweights Matt Brown (12-7) and James Wilks (7-2) doing battle for bragging rights. Wilks will be looking for a submission, while Brown will try to take advantage of his slightly superior striking skills. He has five KOs and five submissions in his 12 wins. His experience and more well-rounded skills should be enough to earn him a three-round decision. The betting value is fair at -150. I like my chances on Brown.
Now on to the undercard:
Two Brits will fire up the crowd as "Relentless" Paul Taylor (10-4-1) will test his kicking skills against undefeated John "The Hitman" Hathaway (12-0) in another welterweight fight. Both fighters will have their hands full, and this could be another candidate for "Fight of the Night". I have trouble believing that the oddsmakers have made Taylor a +210 underdog. His experience and relentless style could be enough to cash a nice ticket. I'll take my chances, as the judges give him a split decision.
Journeyman Aaron Riley (28-11-1) has won his last four wins by decision. He outworks his opponent and knows how to score points. That style may not be popular with the fans, but it could earn him another victory over a younger, less experienced Ross "The Real Deal" Pearson (11-3). These lightweights will show a diversity of skills, both on their feet and on the mat. The better value may be in underdog Pearson at +170, but I think Riley will be fighting for his UFC life. I see him squeaking out a controversial decision and winning at -200 odds.
In a battle of two lightweight submission experts, Terry Etim (13-2, with 10 submission wins) takes on Shannon Gugerty (12-3, with 9 submission wins) in what should be a technical ground affair. Only fight purists enjoy those shows, so expect some booing from the British crowd before Etim is pulled off his opponent, who will be barely breathing from a rear-naked choke. Etim cashes at -330, a steep winner.
Two young welterweights with only eight fights between them, will see what they can do, as Nick Osipczak (4-1) tries to stop Xtreme Couture protégé Matthew Riddle
(3-0), a dangerous wrestler, who has won all of his fights by decision. If he can avoid Osipczak's potent rear-naked choke, he will have his hand raised as the judges give him their verdict. He is a -300 favorite, which seems about right to me.
British favorite, lightweight Paul Kelly (10-1) will bring his aggressive striking skills into the Octagon to try and take out German, Dennis Siver (14-6), who wins most of his fights by submission despite the fact that he considers himself a kickboxing expert.
Kelly fits the mold of physical bullies like Gray Maynard and Melvin Guillard, who have beaten Siver. I see the same here. After a round of striking, Kelly will put Siver to his back and administer a second-round TKO with blows to the head from a full mount position. You may not get rich laying -320 constantly, but it should work here.
Two light-heavyweight unknowns will make their UFC debuts when Swedish Alexander Gustafsson (8-0) takes on American Jared Hamman (11-1). Both are dangerous strikers with 6 of 8 Gustafsson's wins and 8 of 11 Hamman's wins coming by way of KO. So you do the math. This should be a slugfest, the type of fight British fans love. The difference may be that Gustafsson has a wrestling game far superior to Hamman's, and we all know how valuable that is in MMA fighting. The bookies have made him a slight underdog at +135, and I'll take the bait and hope for the best. Gustafsson wins by second-round TKO on the mat.
Leightweight Andre Winner (10-3-1) has two losses and a draw in his last three fights. His opponent Rolando "The Crazy Cuban" Delgado (8-4-1) is a jiu-jitsu freak. This one makes for an interesting fight with Winner trying to avoid going to the mat where he has little chance of winning. The lanky Delgado has limited striking and wrestling skills, so it will be a battle of a striker against a submission artist. Winner should prevail with his close clinching style, and he should put a beating on a determined Delgado, but the judges' decision will go the way of Winner, an over-priced -325.
So let's see what we can do with our fictitious $1000 bankroll:
Let's lay $175 to win $140 on the "Natural" Randy Couture.
Let's lay $60 to win $69 on Michael Bisping.
Let's lay $150 to win $75 on Mike Swick, and wish him well against GSP.
Let's lay $90 to win $60 on Matt Brown.
Let's lay $80 to win $40 on Aaron Riley.
Let's lay $55 to win $115 on Paul Taylor.
Let's lay $99 to win $30 on terry Etim.
Let's lay $90 to win $30 on Matt Riddle.
Let's lay $40 to win $54 on Alexander Gustafsson.
Let's lay $96 to win $30 on Paul Kelly.
Let's lay $65 to win $20 on Andre Winner.
In total, we are risking $1000 to win $663.
Don't forget to give some of your profits to your local youth wrestling program where tomorrow's champions are made. Enjoy the fights. I know I will.
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