Date: October 24, 2009
Venue: Staples Center (Los Angeles, CA)
The UFC Monster will be in Las Vegas for tonight’s UFC event. Unfortunately, the event is in Los Angeles, not Las Vegas! However, this did give me a chance to spend a few days shopping the Vegas sportsbooks, and seeing how the action is coming in on the fights. And, as expected, it is coming in strongly on the favorites on a fight card stacked full of one-sided favorites, according to the oddsmakers, who set such odds. On paper, tonight’s fights have clear favorites to win, and decided underdogs to lose. But, as we know, UFC fights are not fought on paper. They are fought in a caged octagon. So, let’s take a look at the matchups, and see if we can have a profitable night. My fictitious bets have made a profit of over $600 to InterMat readers! Let’s keep the winning streak going …
The main event pits the undefeated light-heavyweight champion Lyota “Dragon” Machida (15-0) against former Pride champion Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (18-3), once considered the best 205-pounder on the planet. Injuries have hampered Shogun, and his few UFC fights have been less than impressive as he enters the twilight of his career. Machida is a quiet, unassuming athlete, who is about the only fighter in mixed martial arts to center his game around karate. Amazingly, Lyota has not only won all of his fights, with names like BJ Penn, Rich Franklin, Tito Ortiz, Thiago Silva, and Rashad Evans on his resume, but he has NEVER lost a single round in a UFC fight! Now, that’s incredible. He rarely gets hit with his unorthodox style, and his pin-point striking makes him a lethal opponent. Once he has you measured, the fight will soon be over. He is outrageously expensive in a fight like this, but you either bet on him or you don’t bet at all. A bridge jump at -410 may be scary, but it should also land you in the winner’s circle. In a 5-round battle for the belt, Machida will be standing with his hand raised by unanimous decision.
Heavyweight Cain Velasquez will put his undefeated 6-0 record on the line against veteran slugger Ben Rothwell (16-4). Velasquez, the former Arizona State All American wrestler, should be able to take Rothwell to the mat. Once there this becomes the classic wrestler vs. striker scenario. We know who wins those encounters, don’t we? Cain will raise cane with some vicious elbows and fists from a full mount position. A bloodied Rothwell will wonder why he joined the UFC. Velasquez at -300 ends this in the first period by TKO.
I’m not sure why lightweights Gleison Tibau (29-6) and John “the Dentist” Neer (25-8-1) are on the main card, but the fight promises lots of action. Neer is anxious to redeem himself after an unimpressive loss to Kurt Pelligreno in Philadelphia in August. His under-rated takedown defense and striking power should be the different here, as he wins by knockout in the second round. He is a slight underdog at +105.
I’m not sure why the oddsmakers have made “Joe Daddy” Stevenson (35-10) a -250 favorite over Spencer “The King” Fisher (24-2) since Stevenson has lost three of his last four UFC fights. Joe likes to box and trap you into his wicked guillotine chokehold. But, Fisher is a relentless striker who should take advantage of Stevenson’s propensity for bleeding. The refs will have seen enough midway through the third period, calling off the dogs as Fisher advances toward a long awaited title shot that may never happen. I’ll go with Fisher at +200 to surprise the powers to be.
The final bout on the main card pits welterweight Anthony Johnson (7-2) against Yoshiyuki “Zenko” Yoshida (11-3). Yoshida will be looking for a mistake to capitalize on as he tries to put a submission hold on his opponent. AJ will be looking for a knock-out with his massive body and punching power. He gets it here in the second round with a thundering uppercut, reminiscent of Mike Tyson’s early days.
Somewhat over-priced at -320, Johnson will cash your ticket and reward his faithful fans.
Now let’s take a look at the undercard.
Undefeated light-heavyweight Ryan “Darth” Bader (10-0) is a bully who should have little trouble controlling Eric “Red” Shafer (13-3-2). He is a better wrestler and much stronger, leaving Shafer’s only hope at victory, his ability to maneuver a submission hold on his bigger opponent. But, don’t rule that out. Shafer has won most of his fights by submission and if he gets lucky here, he could do the same to Bader. But, my money says he won’t, so I’m laying the big number at -500 to see Bader’s streak continue with some brutal ground-and-pound.
Two of the world’s best heavyweight kickers meet when Pat Barry (4-1) takes on Antoni Hardonk (8-5). Both will have sore legs tomorrow. Rumor has it that Barry may even have a ground game, but I doubt it. Hardonk has no interest in going to the mat either. This one opened as a pick ‘em, but the public has been betting Hardonk. I’ve found a few books that have it even, so my value goes with Hardonk at -115. The ref stops this midway through the second round when Barry has trouble standing.
Middleweights Yushin Okami (24-4) and Chael Sonnen (24-10-1) are both seasoned veterans who are known for their ability to win fights, but not finish their opponents! Half of their fights end in a judge’s decision, and that makes them unpopular with most UFC fans (and Dana White for that matter). Therefore, the loser here may be on the outside looking in. Sonnen’s ability to defend Okami’s clinching and grabbing style will determine who wins this one. As a +200 underdog the value lies with Chael. In yet another judge’s decision he will have his hand raised at the end. He has won 13 of his 14 fights won by decision. Add another to his belt.
Two more middleweight veterans meet when the popular Jorge “El Conquistador” Rivera (16-7) takes on Rob “The Rosedale Reaper” Kimmons (22-4) in another interesting fight. In what could be the fight of the night, both like to stand and punch and neither has a glass jaw, tho’ Rivera has been caught early before (see Terry Martin for details). I’m of the opinion that Jorge’s better fight days are behind him. I’ll try my luck with the heavily tattoo’ed Kimmon’s to win by third round TKO. The betting action is coming in on Kimmons, and the -150 price tag should prevail.
Kyle Kingsbury (7-2-1) at -115 will eke out a decision over Razak “Razor” Al-Hassen (7-1)
And 6’11” Stefan Struve (21-3) will prove to be no match for Chase Gormley (6-0), who opened at +200, but is currently at -200!
So let’s see how we do with our fictitious $1000 bankroll tonight:
Let’s lay $123 to win $30 on the Dragon, Lyota Machida.
Let’s lay $150 to win $50 on Cain Velasquez.
Let’s lay $50 to win $100 on Spencer Fisher.
Let’s lay $96 to win $30 on Anthony Johnson.
Let’s lay $40 to win $42 on Josh Neer.
Let’s lay $150 to win $30 on Ryan Bader.
Let’s lay $92 to win $80 on Antoni Hardonk.
Let’s lay $50 to win $110 0n Cael Sonnen.
Let’s lay $75 to win $50 on Rob Kimmons.
Let’s lay $69 to win $60 on Kyle Kingsbury.
Let’s lay $100 to win $50 on Chase Gormley.
In all we are risking $995 to win $632. The cocktail waitress gets a $5 tip.
That’s 7 favorites and 3 underdogs with one pick’em.
Good luck and enjoy the fights. I know I will. And, don’t forget to give a large portion of your profits to your local youth wrestling program, where future champs are made!
Fantastic Five: Five fighters who had wrestling success
Tony NguyenMany of the fighters competing tonight have had some sort of wrestling background. Let’s take a look at five fighters who had collegiate wrestling success. We begin with the co-main event: Cain Velasquez squares off with “Big” Ben Rothwell.
Cain Velasquez was an NJCAA champion at Iowa Central Community College and then went on to become a two-time All-American at Arizona State. He’s an undefeated fighter whose climb up the heavyweight ladder has been meteoric. His last win against kickboxing monster Cheick Congo put him within two fights of a title shot. Against Congo, when Velasquez got in trouble early, taking poor angles, and getting hit, he went back to his wrestling and controlled the fight on the ground. Let’s see if he’s improved his standup since his last outing. Ben Rothwell was the IFL’s No. 1 contender and one of their best fighters. He has a victory over former UFC champ Ricco Rodriquez. In the Affliction league, he lost a tough battle against former UFC champion Andre Arlovski. He’s a serious test for Cain Velasquez, and a battle-tested veteran. The winner of this fight is a fight away from fighting for the belt against Brock Lesnar.
Another former wrestler on the main event card is Anthony Johnson. He’s quickly rising as one of the UFC’s most exciting welterweights. His devastating knockouts of Tommy Speers, Kevin Burns, and Luigi Fioravanti have fans clamoring for more of the man they call“Rumble.” What fans might not know is that Johnson was a successful wrestler at Lassen Community College. He uses his wrestling background to defend takedowns and throw his powerful strikes. He faces a man that wants nothing more than to take him down … in Yoshiyuki Yoshida, a judo expert and former judo Olympian. Yoshida will want to clinch and take this fight to the mat, and avoid the striking of Johnson. This is an interesting fight as styles make fights. If Johnson keeps it standing, it’s only a matter of time before he connects and hurts Yoshida. If Yoshida can get this fight to the mat, he could win via decision. You don’t want to miss this fight.
Ryan Bader, a two-time NCAA all American and reality TV superstar, is fighting Eric Schafer on the undercard. The bout, based mostly on Bader’s popularity, is going to be aired live on Spike TV. Bader is known in wrestling circles for his wrestling accomplishments at Arizona State University. He’s extremely popular since winning a season on Spike TV’s reality TV show, and is now a fan favorite. He trains alongside many great former All-American wrestlers turned MMA fighters such as C. B. Dollaway, Aaron Simpson, and Ben Askren at Arizona Combat Sports. His last win against Carmelo Marrero was solid, but not spectacular, and now makes a jump in competition against Schafer. Eric Schafer is a submission specialist that has solid wins against Houston Alexander and Antonio Mendes. He will have his chances if Bader takes him to the mat, but in the end, it’s a tough road. Bader is the stronger puncher and can take Schafer down at will. Schafer has to hope for a submission to win this fight.
Chael Sonnen is also on the undercard and is facing Yushin Okami, one of four fighters that has a victory against current middleweight king, Anderson Silva. Sonnen wrestled at the University of Oregon and was a very accomplished Greco-Roman wrestler as well. He was the top middleweight in the WEC before arriving as a serious contender in the UFC. Okami is Japan’s top middleweight. He has a great clinch game and wins most of his fights by clinch, using his physical strength and striking. Okami is 7-1 in the UFC and the winner of this fight moves into the top two or three as a contender for a title shot. This will be a battle of equal fighters. I believe that whichever fighter can dictate the rhythm and impose his “will,” will win the fight. This one is too close to call!
Chase Gormley is a big heavyweight at 6-3, 265 pounds. This former wrestler is also sporting a perfect 6-0 MMA record and looking to make a splash in his UFC debut. Chase was an NAIA All-American wrestler at both Montana State Northern University and Lindenwood University. He is fighting Steven Struve, who is a lanky 6-11, 238-pound fighter out of Holland, has the look of a basketball player, but is a submission specialist. He also is 1-1 in the UFC and 17-3 overall. Struve will want to submit Gormley in any way possible. Gormley will have to negotiate the long reach and lanky frame of Struve. He must be cautious of taking Steven down and work solid footwork in his standup and apply some ground and pound. Should be a fun fight.
You can follow Tony Nguyen on Twitter at http://twitter.com/TonyNguyenMMA.
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