Venue: American Airlines Center (Dallas, Texas)
Date: September 19, 2009
The UFC Monster’s winning streak came to end in UFC 102 with a modest $40 loss, but my total winnings to date, posting picks on this Web site, stands at $640. Not bad for recreational income. Let’s try to find some weaknesses in the Las Vegas line and increase our bottom line ... while having fun doing it!
The UFC 103 card has 13 fights on it, but not a single title fight. The featured fight pits ex-middleweight champ Rich “Ace” Franklin (27-4-0) against ex-light heavyweight champ and Brazilian Vitor “The Phenom” Belfort (18-8-0), who is coming off a 37-second KO of Olympic wrestler Matt Lindland. This fight is being fought at a “catch weight” of 195 pounds.
DISCLAIMER: Vitor Belfort has always been one of my favorite MMA fighters and my selection is influenced by my heart, which is always dangerous in the betting game. But Belfort is making his long awaited return to the UFC, looking like he is in his prime, a devastatingly quick puncher with a ground game to match. He is a Carlson Gracie jiu-jitsu black belt, and will give Franklin all the fight that he wants. Franklin’s only losses have been to Dan Henderson, Lyoto Machida, and Anderson “Spider” Silva (twice).
The oddsmakers have installed Belfort as a +125 underdog ... and that gives me the value I seek, as I will call it a second-round TKO, hoping that Franklin doesn’t stay his distance and earn a three-round decision instead. Take Belfort and grab the underdog odds.
The co-main event will pit the legendary heavyweight Croatian Mirko Cro Cop Filipović (25-6-2) against the much younger (10 years) Junior Dos Santos (8-1-0), another Brazilian with quick striking power and a jiu-jitsu game to match. He trains with the Nogueira brothers. This fight will be a toe-to-toe battle of strikers that should end with the mild favorite (-130) Dos Santos standing over his opponent with his hands raised. Cro-Cop has been a shell of himself in the UFC ... and Dos Santos is a hungry climber ready to take the next step. If he doesn’t get the KO, he will transition to the mat and end it there. Take Dos Santos and lay the -130. He’s younger, quicker, and stronger.
Welterweight Martin Kampmann (15-2-0) was a scheduled underdog to take on Mike “Quick” Swick, but an injury to Swick has given Paul “Semtex” Daley (21-8-2) an opportunity to display his skills in the UFC for the first time instead. Kampmann is an Xtreme Couture striker with great kicking skills. His only loss in five years has been to Nate “The Great” Marquardt in Atlanta. Daley has 16 KO’s in his 21 wins! You get the picture? This will be another standup affair, with Kampmann’s UFC experience prevailing. I see a second- round TKO, but proceed with caution as the price is steep (-350 or more).
Lightweights Tyson Griffin (13-2-0) and Hermes Franca (20-7-0) will both go to the Octagon with an arsenal of weapons. This could be the fight of the night, as both have great ground games and underrated striking games. Interestingly, both have lost to Frankie Edgar and Sean Sherk. Griffin has a win over Uriah Faber on his resume, no small task. Franca has a win over current WEC champion, Mike Brown, and has never been submitted! I like this fight. I see it as even, so the bookies generous gift of +200 on Franca puts me on his side.
Welterweight UFC dinosaur Frank “Twinkle Toes” Trigg (19-6-0) makes his return to the Octagon against a younger, quicker, stronger version of himself in Josh Koscheck (14-4-0). Both possess similar skills of strong wrestling and improved striking, and the Vegas oddsmakers have made Koscheck the huge favorite to force Trigg into retirement. But Koscheck’s aggression often gets him into trouble as he tries to stand a punch instead of going to the mat where his strength lies. In an upset that will rock the UFC world, I am playing the value of Trigg at +300 to find a way to get the job done here. I see Trigg gaining a submission win by rear-naked choke in the third round.
That completes the main card. Let’s take a brief look at the undercard for potential winners ...
Undefeated TUF show product Efrain Escudero (12-0-0) will take on the dangerous Cole “Magrinho” Miller (15-3-0) in a lightweight match of interest. Miller is a gangly 6’1” lightweight known for his choking submissions. At +140 I see value in Miller’s chances of ending the Mexican’s streak. Another triangle choke in the second round will send the UFC Monster to the winner’s window again. It’s Miller time.
In what could be the shortest fight of the night, KO specialists Drew “The Massacre” McFedries (8-5-0) will duke it out with fellow middleweight Tomasz “Gorilla” Drwal (16-2-0). This fight could either way, but UFC fans polled have McFedries as an overwhelming favorite, while the line is just -115. With his brutal power, I find a little value in this side, as well. Let’s make a small play on McFedries.
Another accomplished Brazilian jiu-jitsu fighter, lightweight Rafael Dos Anjos (11-4-0) will take on UFC journeyman Rob Emerson (10-7-1). Why is Emerson favored? I have no clue. Dos Anjos hits the mat for a body triangle that ends this in the very first round. Lay the –105.
Vladimir "The Janitor” Matyushenko (22-4-0) has been around forever having last fought in the UFC in UFC 44! The heavy-handed Croatian will be taking on fellow Croation and Cro Crop protégé, Igor Pokrajac (21-5-0), who is making his UFC debut. A small play on Matyushenko at –270 should get you the cash. He will win by decision.
Lightweight Rafaello “Trator” Oliveira (9-1-0) should have little trouble with former University of Minnesota wrestler Nik Lentz (18-3-1). This one ends with an armbar submission in the second round, as Oliveira gets it done at –340. The price is steep, so only a small play is warranted.
Light heavyweight Eliot “The Fire” Marshall (7-2-0) opened as a small favorite against Jason “Hitman” Britz (17-1-1). Maybe the gaudy record of Britz has convinced the public to bet on him ... because Marshall now stands as a mild underdog. I think he has the better ground game and a more rounded set of skills. I will play him at –105.
Jim Miller (14-2-0) should have little problem submitting Steve Lopez (12-1-0) in a lightweight matchup, but at –600, this bridge jump has no interest to me. No play.
Welterweight Rick Story (7-3-0) will battle Brian Foster (14-3-0) in a fight too close to call. Story is the slight favorite at –125, but I will pass on this one as well.
So that’s it for UFC 103. In a risky card of underdogs, I’m backing six barking dogs and five favorites ... with two passes. Let’s now take a look at how our fictitious $1000 bankroll breaks down ...
Let’s lay $125 to win $162 on Vitor Belfort.
Let’s lay $156 to win $120 on Junior Dos Santos.
Let’s lay $148 to win $40 on Martin Kampmann.
Let’s lay $120 to win $270 on Hermes Franca.
Let’s lay $60 to win $180 on Frank Trigg.
Let’s lay $50 to win $70 on Cole Miller.
Let’s lay $46 to win $40 on Drew McFedries.
Let’s lay $105 to win $100 on Rafael Dos Anjos.
Let’s lay $54 to win $20 on Vladimir Matyushenko.
Let’s lay $68 to win $20 on Rafaello Oliveira.
Let’s lay $63 to win $60 on Elliot Marshall.
No play on Jim Miller/Steve Lopez.
No play on Rick Story/Brian Foster.
In total we are risking $995 to win $1082. Let’s give the cocktail waitress the $5 tip and let’s not forget to share the profits with your local youth wrestling program, where tomorrow’s champions are born.
Enjoy the fights. I know I will. I’ll see you at the winner’s window!
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