Venue: Rose Garden Arena, Portland, Oregon
Date: August 29, 2009
Randy Couture and UFC MonsterIt is the mission of the UFC Monster to study the Las Vegas betting line and the line movement as it relates to mixed martial arts, in order to find opportunities to beat the daylights out of the bookie, and turn passive fans into passionate winners. And, I’m on a roll with four (4) straight winning sessions (UFC #’s 98, 99, 100, 101 for a total net profit of $680) since posting such predictions on InterMatt. Just think, anyone following my predictions would now have earned a lifetime Platinum subscription to this Web site! Not bad.
Let’s take a look at these epic battles, starting with the featured event pitting two MMA heavyweight legends, Randy “The Natural” COUTURE (16-9-0) vs. Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” NOGUEIRA (31-5-1). Randy is fighting in his backyard, the question is will he have much left at age 46? Nogueira is also a battered warrior, looking much older than his age of 33. Randy wins this one with a classic lesson on dirty boxing. Nogueira needs just one opportunity to end the fight with a submission, but Randy hasn’t been submitted in seven years and he will make it difficult to get anything but a hometown decision with a convincing clinic. This time Randy’s a favorite at –175.
When the opening line came out on light heavyweights Keith “the Dean of Mean” JARDINE (14-6-1) and Thiago SILVA (13-1-0), I couldn’t believe that they made Silva a +185 underdog, so I invested. Over the next few weeks the public joined the parade and now you will be lucky to find Silva at +125. Jardine is a vicious kicker and can make an opponent look bad enough to win a decision. He also has plenty of striking power that often ends the fights with little doubt as to the winner. But Thiago Silva is a beast, whose only loss was to the Dragon Lyota Machida. Silva ends his fights with knockouts, and I see this as a toe-to-toe war with one man soon to drop. Hopefully that man will be the ex-bounty hunter, Keith Jardine. The value lies with the Brazilian. Take Silva at +125 or whatever you can get. I’ll call it a second-round KO.
This is my “Fight of the Night.” When middleweights Nate “The Great” MARQUARDT (31-8-2) takes on Demian MAIA (11-0-0), we have a truly great striker and ground expert against one of the world’s elite jiu-jitsu black belts. The winner most likely gets a title shot at Anderson “Spider” Silva. Both make for interesting fights, but this one holds my interest. I agree with Dana that if Maia gets you to the mat, it’s flat-out over. His suffocating submission holds leave no room for escape. He is a reincarnate of the legendary Royce Gracie. And, he’s a juicy ‘dog at +145, but I believe that Marquardt is the far superior striker, and has the takedown defense and jits experience to avoid getting caught by the boa constrictor. Maia’s on a mission to prove that jiu-jitsu leads all mixed martial arts disciplines, but Nate ain’t buying! Take Marquardt and lay the –175. He earns a close decision over a determined Maia.
Middleweight Chris “The Crippler” LEBEN (18-5-0) is a fan favorite due to his aggressive, banging style. He throws haymakers and pushes forward, and unless you can get him to the mat, you will soon see stars. His opponent, Jake ROSHOLT (5-1-0) is well known for being a multiple NCAA wrestling champion with Okie State, and someone who likes to take it to the mat. His UFC debut was a disastrous loss to Dan Miller, who choked him out within minutes. Inexperience could again be Rosholt’s Achille’s heal, if he tries to stand and trade punches with Leben. But, I like the value of a great wrestler against a dominant puncher and the +120 on Rosholt puts me in his camp for this one! He wins by decision.
… and in the remaining main card event, we have two light heavyweights, Brandon “The Truth” VERA (10-3-0) against a red-hot Krzysztof “The Polish Experiment” SOSZYNSKI (19-9-1). Vera has forever been knocking on the door of contention, but a slump put him back down the long UFC ladder with time running out. His stand-up game, led by aggressive kicking, should hold Soszynski at bay. If Vera can avoid going to the mat and getting submitted, he will win another judge’s decision as a –200 favorite.
And, now let’s look at the undercard.
Middleweight Ed “Short Fuse” HERMAN (17-6-0) should have enough experience in ground work to submit up-and-comer Aaron “A-Train” SIMPSON (5-0-0). A second-round rear-naked choke ends this one with Herman cashing at a nice price of –120.
Gabriel “Napao” GONZAGA (10-4-1) once was considered the heir apparent for the heavyweight crown after crumpling up Mirko Cro Cop’s body with a lethal kick to the head. But Randy soon ended that dream, and now Gonzaga climbs the ladder again. He will take on journeyman Chris “The Crowbar” TUCHSCHERER (17-1-0), who has fought in lesser venues against unknown opponents. His only hope will be to land a “lights out” punch before Gonzaga breaks his arm with a powerful submission. This one lasts less than two minutes with Gonzaga chewing the camera up, and “the Crowbar” sprawled on the mat with a dangling arm. It’s okay to bridge jump at –350 as this one will be easy.
I am following a simple strategy in the next two fights. I see two heavyweight fights that should be closer than the bookies make the odds, so I will take BOTH underdogs and hope to at least split, to make a nice profit. If either ‘dog wins, we add to the bankroll. It’s called leverage on your money.
Justin “The Nsane1” McCULLY (9-4-2) is a reckless goofball with a puncher’s chance of beating policeman Mike RUSSO (11-1-0), a real life cop. He’s worth the risk at +225.
And, big Tim “The Thrashing Machine” HAGUE (10-1-0) will find a way to end Todd DUFFEE’s unbeaten streak (5-0-0). He wins by second-round KO and cashes at +160.
Middleweights Mark “The Filipino Wrecking Machine” MUNOZ (5-1-0) and Nick CATRONE (7-1-0) are former collegiate wrestlers (Okie State and Rider) who will take this to the ground to settle. Munoz is the better wrestler and will control this one as a --200 favorite. Mark looked great in yesterday’s weigh-ins, as well. Not an ounce of fat anywhere.
In the only lightweight fight on the card Evan DUNHAM (8-0-0) will learn that he is not yet ready for primetime, as Marcus “Maximus” AURELIO (19-7-0) takes him apart before winning a third-round submission by armbar. Aurelio offers great value at –140.
So, that’s it. Action on every fight, with seven (7) favorites and four (4) underdogs.
Every fighter eventually gets clocked. And, the UFC Monster is due to take a beating. But I’ve learned from Dan Gable that you will NEVER win expecting to lose! So, I’m planning on heading to the winner’s window (again) still unbeaten for InterMat. I hope I’m not alone! Let’s get it on!!!
Let’s take a look now at how to distribute our risk over the UFC fight card, using our “fictitious” $1000 bankrol …
Main card:
Let’s lay $175 to win $100 on Randy “the Natural” Couture.
Let’s lay $ 80 to win $100 on Thiago Silva.
Let’s lay $ 60 to win $75 on Jake Rosholt.
Let’s lay $140 to win $80 on Nate “the Great” Marquardt.
Let’s lay $100 to win $50 on Brandon Vera.
Undercard:
Let’s lay $90 to win $75 on Ed “Short Fuse” Herman.
Let’s lay $105 to win $30 on a bridge jump on “Napao” Gonzalez.
Let’s lay $40 to win $90 on Justin McCully.
Let’s lay $40 to win $64 on Tim Hague.
Let’s lay $100 to win $50 on a very fit Mark Munoz.
Let’s lay $70 to win $50 on Marcus Aurelio.
In total, we are risking $1000 to win $764.
Enjoy the fights and don’t forget to support your local youth wrestling programs where future champions are born.
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