Date: August 8, 2009
Venue: Wachovia Center (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)
The UFC Monster will be in attendance when two of the best MMA fighters on the planet will be featured in a co-main event in Philadelphia’s first hosted UFC event.
BJ Penn, at 155 pounds will be defending his title against an East Coast rising star in Kenny Florian, and Anderson “Spider” Silva will once again be going up in weight to fight former light heavyweight champion Forrest Griffin. The rest of the 11-fight card is also loaded with interesting fights, which is now becoming a UFC trademark, as the sport grows and Dana White’s empire continues to be flooded with great fighters. I have been looking forward to this event for months.
It is my challenge to pick winners and turn them into cash. So let’s do a little bragging, as I netted a $327 profit on the last UFC 100 card, and that brings my InterMat total to a shining $575.50 profit for UFCs 98/99/100, as posted on this very same Web site. For those of you who have followed me, you should all have earned enough for lifetime Premium subscriptions by now. Can we hit four in a row, for the grand slam? Let’s take a look at the fights and betting odds.
As mentioned previously BJ “The Prodigy” PENN (13-5-1) is defending his lightweight title against Kenny “Ken-Flo” FLORIAN (13-3-0) in a five-round match. BJ is coming off the most disappointing performance of his career with a beating he took from Georges St. Pierre in Las Vegas on Superbowl eve. He is hungry and fit. His new trainer is the 67-year father of Todd Marinovich. Remember him? The burned out former USC quarterback who was groomed since birth to be a professional athlete. Why does this matter? A fit BJ is a dangerous animal. BJ’s skill set is legendary; his fitness is always questioned, but not here. He is as fit as never before and his focus may have transcended his skills. I think Ken-Flo is in deep water here.
After a few moments of probing each other, BJ will stun Florian with a potent jab that sends him to the mat. BJ will swarm him like a bear on honey, leading to a near-naked choke that will almost break Ken-Flo’s neck. I got on early at –160, but today’s high price is still a value at –250, as I give an improved Ken-Flo little chance of pulling the upset in front of his fans.
UFC Monster with Forrest GriffinSpider has looked disinterested, almost bored, in his last two wins, but Griffin’s style is tailor-made for some toe-to-toe action. A stunning knock-out by a powerful slugger or a submission on the mat will be Forrest’s goal. But that goal will fade by the lights that Forrest will see a motivated Anderson Silva lands a stunning kick to send his opponent flying, setting up the trademark barrage of accurate bombs that ends this quickly in the very first round! Take Spider and lay whatever you have to (currently –350).
Former four-time All-American and two-time NCAA wrestling champion Johny HENDRICKS brings his 5-0 mixed martial arts record into the ring in his UFC debut at welterweight (170 lbs). He will be fighting Amir SADOLLAH (2-0-0) who is a product of the Ultimate Fighter reality show. This is wrestler against jiu-jitsu expert. Has Hendo learned enough jits defense from Randy Couture to hold off Sadollah? The oddsmakers have it near even.
Interestingly, this fight may be a standing affair, as Hendricks loves to throw leather. His quickness and years of mat training will make him a formidable foe. Wrestlers have done extremely well in this sport. I think “Hendo” will join the parade. Let’s take him at even money to get a surprising KO midway through the second period. He wins in a mild upset.
Another TUF fighter is Kendall “Da Spyder” GROVE (12-5-0), a lanky 6’6” middleweight, who likes to swing wildly, who takes on Brazilian jiu-jitsu expert, Richard “Big Dog” ALMEIDA (10-3-0), who wins his fights by submission. History has shown that lanky appendages make for good submission fodder. This fight will be no exception. I look for Grove to search for his ranger just long enough before Almeida takes him to the mat where it will be over before the bell sounds to end the first round. Big Dog’s a value at –150. Kendall Grove will forever be the answer to the trivial question, “Who did the late Evan Tanner fight in his last fight?”
Another dangerous striker, lightweight Josh “The Dentist” NEER (25-7-1) has won half his fights by KO, and half by submission, with a few decisions mixed in. He is a well-rounded fighter, who will try to be the first to ever KO Kurt “Batman” PELLEGRINO (19-4-0), another East Coast fighter, who makes submission the name of his game. Can he fend off the striking power of Neer long enough to head to the mat? I doubt it, as I see the Dentist knocking some teeth out here before he sends me to the winner’s window to cash at –200.
That completes the main card; let’s now take a quick look at the interesting undercard …
In a rematch, lightweight Shane “Sugar” NELSON (13-3-0) is forced to take a fight that he wasn’t interested in against journeyman Aaron RILEY (27-11-1), who was victimized by a quick call on a knockdown that ended their first battle. Revenge in sports is beautiful, and fighting a fight you don’t want is lethal. I like Riley to win a convincing three round decision at –150.
Lanky, 6’ 4” welterweight Tamdan “the Barn Cat McCRORY (12-2) will take on John “Doomsday” HOWARD (11-4). Avoiding the punches long enough to apply a second-round armbar submission will win this for McCrory as a –175 favorite.
Fellow Brazilian Thales LEITES (14-2) is the last fighter to lose to Anderson Silva. Tonight’s one-dimensional striker and professional boxer Alessio “Legionarius” SAKARA (17-7-1) will be a much better match for him, as it pits a pure striker against a jiu-jitsu black belt. This one ends quickly on the mat with a body triangle choking the life out of Sakara. One of the night’s biggest favorites wins at –325.
Two unknown fighters, welterweights Matt RIDDLE (2-0-0) and Dan CRAMER (1-0-0) will try to launch successful careers in the UFC with Riddle winning a close decision as a –150 favorite.
And in an upset, Jesse “The Ox” LENNOX (14-1-0) will stun Danillo “Indio” VILLEFORT (9-2-0) with some second round ground-and-pound to cash for ‘dog bettors at +160.
In a battle of Georges lightweights, George SOTIROPOULOS (9-2-0) should get a submission somewhere in the first round to defeat George ROOP (9-5). For some reason, there is no betting line posted, hence there is no bet. This one we’ll watch for fun.
Okay, let’s go to the scoreboard where I am laying most of my eggs in the baskets of the two main event favorites. If they win, we win.
Here’s our breakdown of wagers from our fictitious $1000 bankroll:
Let’s lay $200 to win $80 on BJ Penn to stay unbeaten at 155 lbs.
Let’s lay $210 to win $60 on Anderson Silva to drop Forrest like a big tree.
Let’s lay $50 to win $50 on Okie State’s Johny Hendrick to beat Amir.
Let’s lay $75 to win $50 on Big Dog Almeida submitting Grove.
Let’s lay $60 to win $30 on Josh Neer to do some dental work on Batman.
Let’s lay $60 to win $40 on Aaron Riley getting his revenge over Nelson.
Let’s lay $105 to win $60 on Barn Cat McCrory.
Let’s lay $130 to win $40 in a bridge jump on Thales Leites. Jits beats boxer.
Let’s lay $60 to win $40 on Riddle over Cramer.
Let’s lay $50 to win $80 on Lennox in an upset.
Let’s look for a bookie that will take action on George Sotiropoulus.
In total, we are risking $1000 to win $585 in a favorite-loaded card.
Let’s not forget to share our winnings with your local youth wrestling club, where future champions are born. Enjoy the fights see you at the winner’s window!
The UFC Monster
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