Venue: Mandalay Bay Events Center (Las Vegas, Nevada)
Date: July 11, 2009
Wow! UFC 100: The best mixed martial card ever (until 101, 102, etc.). Two title fights and a bunch of legendary big name fighters make up this Battle Royal. Tickets for this affair sold out in a few hours, before the public ever got a chance to grab one. I know I tried ... $1000 singles were all that were left. Dana owns a cash cow.
The UFC Monster is on a mission to beat the Vegas bookies at mixed martial arts. We have won our previous two cards, with a net profit of $248.50, as posted right here on InterMat. Let’s go for the trifecta, and take a look at tonight’s card for value in the Vegas line.
One of the two title fights pits heavyweight Brock Lesnar (3-1) in a revenge match against current champion Frank Mir (12-3). Lesnar, the former NCAA wrestling champion, is a freak of strength and speed. His brute strength and sledgehammer fists, combined with his dominant wrestling skills, make him almost unbeatable. Mir is a rare heavyweight who wins most of his fights by nasty submissions, including breaking Tim Silvia’s arm and taking Brock out with a knee bar. Three years removed from a serious motorcycle accident, Mir is now at the peak of his game. His demolishing of Nogueira is one for the ages.
The key to this fight may be Marty Morgan, lifelong University of Minnesota assistant coach, who now serves as Brock’s mentor. If Marty has taught the big man how to defend jiu-jitsu, he wins. If not, Mir will be patient and find a way to win by submission, his only chance. I think Marty did his job, Lesnar at -220 wins this one by TKO in the very first round. Go Gophers!!!
The co-main event brings Thiago “Pit Bull” Alves (22-4) into the octagon against Georges St. Pierre (18-2) for the welterweight (170 pounds) title. GSP is recognized as one of the very best fighters in the world. The Canadian’s blend of speed and powerful explosiveness with endless cardio, makes him dominate most fights. Alves is a beast, the biggest welterweight on the planet. His game is hammer-time, knockouts, knockouts, knockouts. Will he be able to catch GSP, or will he spend his evening on his back eating fists? I like the outrageous value the bookies have made on him at +240. You don’t get rich betting against GSP, but I’ll pick my spot with a hungry fighter on a roll. Alves gets his KO early in the second round.
Light heavyweight (205 pounds) Dan Henderson (24-7), a former Olympic wrestler and a 12-year veteran of MMA who has never been knocked out, takes on British fighter Michael “The Count” Bisping (18-1). These two were the most recent coaches on The Ultimate Fighter TV show. Bisping’s Brits kicked ass this year! Tonight Hendo gets the revenge. He won’t get KO’d and he has some of the best take-down defense out there. Plus his iron chin and rock hard head make him your worst nightmare. A smart Bisping will dance his way to a decision, but Bruiser catches Twinkle Toes here, and ends this ballet midway through the second period with some ugly ground and pound. Hendo at -220 looks like a steal to me!
Welterweight Jon Fitch (22-3) will try to end Paulo Thiago’s undefeated (11-0) streak when they take to the mat. Fitch, the former Purdue wrestler, is better in all phases of fighting than Thiago, except jiu-jitsu, where Fitch has enough defense to avoid getting submitted. Thiago is coming off a surprise KO of Josh Koscheck, who was dominating him until the lucky blow landed. Fitch is the prohibitive -500 favorite, so no value there, but he still takes the Brazilian to school and wins a convincing decision.
Middleweight (185 pounds) Yoshihiro Akiyama (12-1-2) makes his much heralded UFC debut against veteran journeyman Alan “The Talent” Belcher (13-4), who is supposed to be the reputable first steppingstone in Akiyama’s UFC journey. But, the last time they threw a well-advertised fighter to open up against Alan, he ended it with a guillotine choke against Denis Kang. Very impressive. Can lighting strike twice? ... at +220 I’ll take my chances on Belcher that it can! A surprise knockout in the second period ends this one.
Light heavyweight Mark Coleman (15-9) will someday be in the UFC HOF. He invented ground-and-pound, and once looked invincible. But, those days are long gone. Today he is a weather-beaten shell of his best, a gasser with the huge heart of a former champion. It’s hard not to love former Buckeye wrestler Mark Coleman. His opponent, Stephan Bonnar (14-5) is best known for his epic battles with Forrest Griffin. Bonnar is dangerous and well educated in all phases of MMA, including some Muay-Thai work in Thailand. But he looked bad against Jon Jones and he has been plagued by injuries. Both fighters could use a good performance. I have a feeling that there is a reason that Coleman landed on UFC 100’s card. It is in the history of the sport. Tonight we get to see one last G-n-P show for the ages. It’s Hammer time. Mark “the Hammer” Coleman at +270 to end this before he gasses (second-round TKO).
The rest of the undercard looks like this:
Lightweight (155 pounds) Mac Danzig pulls an upset against Jim Miller (13-2) with a rear-naked choke submission in the third round. Nice underdog at +160.
Light heavyweight Jon “Bones” Jones (8-0) is mowing down his UFC opponents. His unorthodox spinning kicks and strikes with lightning fast attacks have overwhelmed his opponents. His opponent, Jake “Irish” O’Brien (11-2), is an aggressive former Purdue wrestler, whose best chance will be to take it to the mat and smother Bones. I see little value on laying -400, but that’s the side I’d be on. Bones ends it with a second round KO. O’Brien goes back to the drawing board.
Welterweight Dong “Stun Gun” Hyun Kim looks to keep his unbeaten (11-0-1) record intact as he does battle with Canadian TJ Grant. A precision striker (Kim) against a good submission artist who always pushes the pace. Will he get an armbar submission before he goes lights out? I don’t think so. A small play on Kim at -250 is in order. He KO’s Grant early in the third.
Middleweight CB Dollaway (9-2) is a former Arizona State All-American wrestler, and a product of the TUF show. Dollaway looks better every time out, but he will have his hands full with former Central Florida NCWA national champion Tom “Filthy” Lawlor (5-1-1). Lawlor’s conditioning and wrestling skills will set him up to spring a surprise triangle choke upset over CB in the third round. Lawlor at +200 is too good to pass up.
Lightweight Matt Grice (10-2) can brag of being a four-time Oklahoma state wrestling champion, but those credentials won’t impress Shannon Gugerty (11-3) who at -140 will earn a convincing decision and send me to the winner’s window (again).
That’s six (6) favorites and five (5) underdogs, a nice balance with some luck.
OK, now let’s go for three (3) in a row. With our fictitious $1000 bankroll let’s make the following wagers with your favorite Las Vegas sportsbook:
Lay $154 to win $70 on Brock Lesnar to get his revenge over Frank Mir.
Lay $100 to win $240 on “Pitbull” Alves to shock the world with a 1st round KO of GSP!
Lay $176 to win $80 on Hendo to school Bisping.
Lay $100 to win $20 on Fitch to crush Thiago’s unbeaten streak.
Lay $60 to win $132 on Belcher to ruin Akiyama’s UFC debut.
Lay $60 to win $162 on Mark Coleman to honor his HOF career with a victory in UFC 100.
Lay $80 to win $ 20 on Jon “Bones” Jones to stay undefeated.
Lay $60 to win $ 96 on Danzig to upset Jim Miller.
Lay $60 to win $120 on Tom Lawlor to upset CB Dollaway.
Lay $75 to win $25 on “Stun Gun” Kim to put TJ Grant’s lights out.
Lay $70 to win $50 on Gugerty to use his good ground game to beat Grice.
In total, we are laying $995 to win $1020.
Good luck, and please don’t forget to donate some of your winnings to your local youth wrestling program! Enjoy the fights.
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