Weidman, who trains with UFC veteran Matt Serra and striking coach Ray Longo, is an undefeated prospect who has been steadily climbing his way up the ladder. The former two-time All-American Division I wrestler found his way in the UFC in 2011 and went 3-0 for the year. He decisioned seasoned veteran Alessio Sakara (who was 15-7-0-1 at the time), handed Jesse Bongfledt his fifth loss via guillotine with just seconds left in the first round, and then turned heads by putting Tom Lawlor to sleep with a first round Brabo choke at UFC 139 in November.
In his college wrestling career, Weidman defeated both Phil Davis and Ryan Bader. He served as an assistant wrestling coach at Hofstra University. Weidman had considered training for the 2008 Olympics, but suffered a rib injury. He opted to try MMA rather than wait for the 2012 Olympics
Although Demien Maia has the far more impressive submission grappling pedigree, Weidman is no stranger to BJJ. In fact, he won the East Coast Grappler's Quest in his own weight class, as well as winning the Absolute division. Weidman won all 13 of his matches by submission. Weidman also competed in the 2009 ADCC World Championships in Barcelona, Spain. He defeated Daniel Tabera, but lost to seven-time World champion Andre Galvao by points in the quarterfinals. Both of these tournaments took place when Weidman had under a year of formal training.
Maia's long been winning BJJ tournaments. A BJJ black belt under Fabio Gurgel, Maia now competes under the Brasa banner. He is a three-time Brazilian World Cup champion and a two-time ADCC champion. Maia, of course, is also the far more experienced fighter as well. Although he suffered a brutal decision loss to Anderson Silva in April 2010, he has since gone on to defeat Mario Miranda, Kendall Grove, and, most recently, Jorge Santiago. He won a decision against a very tough Dan Miller and won Submission of the Night honors a total of four times -- landing a triangle choke on both Ed Herman and Chael Sonnen, and rear naked chokes against Ryan Jensen and Jason MacDonald.
If there's anything we learned from Demian Maia's fight against Mark Munoz -- controversial decision notwithstanding -- it's that Maia's shots can be stuffed and dangerous submissions can be neutralized by a smart wrestler. That's why this last-minute change in opponents creates a tougher challenge for Maia, and why oddsmakers are calling Weidman an early favorite. And although Maia was already in fight camp, so it's not like he took the bout at the last minute, he was preparing to face striker Michael Bisping. On the other hand, Maia had no trouble contending with wrestler Chael Sonnen back in 2009 -- despite Sonnen's wrestling background. (Sonnen was a Division All-American at the University of Oregon, a silver medalist at the Greco-Roman World University Championships in 2000, and a two-time Dave Schultz Memorial International Greco-Roman winner.) Maia capitalized on a lateral drop before finishing with a triangle, which appears to be Sonnen's Kryptonite. It's also worth noting that Sonnen didn't want much to do with Maia's ground game, twice standing up out of full guard. It's tough to say since we haven't seen much of Weidman's standup, but Maia may very well have an edge in the stand-up game -- so Weidman may not be so quick to stand, instead utilizing his developing submission game and superior wrestling.
But this isn't to say that Weidman doesn't have his work cut out for him. Although he is undefeated, he has never faced anyone of Maia's caliber. Even Rousimar Paulhares, the kind of the leg lock, turned down the chance to face Maia on short notice. But Weidman has far less to lose and far more to gain in the bout. Simply putting on a good show against such a high-level opponent will improve the wrestler's stock. Maia, on the other hand, is not in as good of a position. Defeating Bisping would have put him back on the road towards title contention. Defeating Weidman on short notice may be more challenging, but won't look nearly as impressive. And a loss to a lesser-known fighter who hasn't yet been in the deep end of the pool would be a step back for Maia, who will need to secure more wins to work his way back up again.
Who will win the classic battle of the grappler versus wrestler, seasoned veteran versus hungry up-and-coming star, footnoted by a last-minute opponent shuffle? Tune in Saturday night to find out.
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