This past December, Blair Academy won its 15th consecutive Beast of the East title (Photo/Rob Preston)Last year's longitudinal study of the InterMat Fab 50 rankings identified 14 programs that appeared in the rankings at the end of the previous four seasons (2011-2014). From that group, 11 appeared in the Fab 50 at the end of this season. In a related note, 15 programs have appeared in the rankings at the end of the most recent stretch of four seasons (2012-2015). Two other programs have appeared in the Fab 50 rankings at the end of four of the last five seasons.
The following is a ranking of the 11 programs to end the last five seasons in the Fab 50:
1. Blair Academy, N.J. (2011: 2nd, 2012: 1st, 2013: 1st, 2014: 1st, 2015: 3rd)
2. St. Paris Graham, Ohio (4th, 8th, 5th, 6th, 1st)
3. Clovis, Calif. (7th, 5th, 8th, 3rd, 5th)
4. Wyoming Seminary, Pa. (11th, 9th, 2nd, 4th, 4th)
5. Apple Valley, Minn. (1st, 3rd, 13th, 5th, 17th)
6. Bethlehem Catholic, Pa. (21st, 12th, 20th, 13th, 9th)
7. St. Edward, Ohio (5th, 2nd, 4th, 50th, 15th)
8. Massillon Perry, Ohio (19th, 22nd, 16th, 7th, 24th)
9. Montini Catholic, Ill. (28th, 26th, 12th, 18th, 16th)
10. Broken Arrow, Okla. (29th, 19th, 36th, 12th, 13th)
11. Bettendorf, Iowa (12th, 10th, 50th, 21st, 20th)
These four additional programs have ended the last four seasons in the Fab 50:
Oak Park River Forest, Ill. (2012: 31st, 2013: 11th, 2014: 3rd, 2015: 2nd)
Southeast Polk, Iowa (13th, 17th, 22nd, 7th)
Poway, Calif. (21st, 23rd, 32nd, 8th)
Tuttle, Okla. (28th, 41st, 31st, 23rd)
An additional pair of Illinois programs have ended four of the last five seasons within the Fab 50 rankings:
Carl Sandburg (2011: 26th, 2012: 36th, 2013: 9th, 2014: NR, 2015: 19th)
Marmion Academy (16th, NR, 26th, 27th, 32nd)
Three teams saw their four-year runs of ending the season within the Fab 50 rankings come to an end this past season:
Brandon (Fla.), Detroit Catholic Central (Mich.), and St. Johns (Mich.)
The following six teams have now been ranked within the Fab 50 to end the last three seasons:
Franklin Regional, Pa. (2013: 33rd, 2014: 8th, 2015: 6th)
Bergen Catholic, N.J. (34th, 9th, 10th)
Archer, Ga. (48th, 10th, 11th)
Brecksville, Ohio (19th, 26th, 26th)
Don Bosco Prep, N.J. (37th, 23rd, 37th)
Bound Brook, N.J. (40th, 20th, 41st)
Three other teams ended this past season within the Fab 50 for the third time during the last five years:
Glenbard North, Ill. (2011: 22nd, 2012: 39th, 2013: NR, 2014: NR, 2015: 22nd)
Lowell, Mich. (NR, 24th, NR, 16th, 25th)
St. Michael-Albertville, Minn. (NR, 42nd, 10th, NR, 21st)
A pair of teams saw three-year runs of ending their season within the Fab 50 rankings come to an end:
Marist (Ill.) and McDonogh (Md.)
In addition to identifying programs of excellence, a longitudinal analysis of the Fab 50 rankings can identify some trends, which can help provide an assessment of what to expect for the following year of the national team rankings.
During the last five years of compiling the Fab 50 national team rankings, 112 different schools from 25 states have appeared in the season-end rankings. The following are some "by the numbers" observations about the rankings.
42 = schools that have been ranked at the end of just one season
33 = schools that have been ranked at the end of exactly two seasons
15 = number of different schools to end the season ranked from Pennsylvania, which is the most of any state (11 different New Jersey schools, and 10 different Ohio schools are next in line)
1 = number of unique schools to be ranked from Arizona, Delaware, Nebraska, Texas, and Tennessee
0 = schools to appear in the end of season national team rankings from Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Mississippi (doesn't have high school wrestling), Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia, and Wyoming.
In the last four seasons (i.e. excluding the first season), there have been anywhere from 13-to-18 schools that have made their first appearance in the end of season rankings:
2012: 18, 2013: 15, 2014: 16, 2015: 13
The following is an exhibit showing the relative position for these debutant schools:
Furthermore, the "best" season end position for a debut school is 11th, which happened in 2014 by Stillwater (Okla.)
In the last four seasons, when compared with the previous season (i.e. excluding the first season, as that had no previous season), either 18 or 19 schools that were ranked at the end of the prior year finished outside of the rankings
The following is an exhibit that shows the relative position from the previous year for schools that did not repeat as nationally ranked:
In all years but for 2014, the "best" ranking of a team not to return in the rankings was 14th. In the 2014 end of year rankings, teams that were ranked 6th, 9th, 10th, and 15th from the 2013 end of year rankings were not ranked.
An additional factoid to note is that only 11 teams have been ranked, fallen out of the rankings in the following season, and made a subsequent return to the rankings. Some of that may be due to the lack of years present in the longitudinal study; while another part is that it is easier to make the "rise" than it is to recover from a "fall."
Seven members of the 2015 end of season Fab 50 had a season in which they were not ranked after their initial appearance in the end-of-season rankings:
Carl Sandburg (Ill.), Colonial Forge (Va.), Glenbard North (Ill.), Lowell (Mich.), Marmion Academy (Ill.), Neosho (Mo.), and St. Michael-Albertville (Minn.)
The other four fitting this description are:
Hermiston, Ore. (2011: 43rd, 2013: 46th)
Kasson-Mantorville, Minn. (2011: 44th, 2013: 24th)
Nazareth, Pa. (2011: 32nd, 2014: 25th)
Waverly-Shell Rock, Iowa (2011: 17th, 2014: 34th)
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