What Willie's Watching (11/17/2023)

After a tumultuous week filled with upsets, we head to a Week 3 slate largely headlined, already, by high-profile duals. Here are five big things The Brain will be monitoring. 5. What Will Mizzou @ ASU Look Like? When you see Missouri vs. ASU, you immediately think, ‘Awesome!’ Intermat’s tournament rankings have The Tigers at #5 and the Flaming Forks #6. Without a doubt, it’s a must-watch dual for any college wrestling fan. However, we might be in for a bit of a letdown. First of all, ASU is a much better tournament team - especially until they get some weights figured out. Intermat has them at just #16 in a dual setting with Missouri all the way up at #3. And who knows what personnel ASU will have available. Neither #2 Richie Figs (125) nor #4 Cohlton Schultz have wrestled yet this year and Jesse Vazquez (141) and Jacori Teemer (157) got pretty banged up in competition last week. The results of the matches and the dual, of course, will be interesting to follow. But the status of some of the Sun Devils is interesting in its own right. 4. Mesenbrink Watch Word came out of the Penn State camp yesterday that Alex Facundo will redshirt and that it will be Mitch Mesenbrink manning the 165 spot for the Nittany Lions this year. He went undefeated last week at Journeymen and there will continue to be eyes on him this week as he suits up for Army’s Black Knight Invitational. 3. Sign Me Up For Duals in Barns I spoke with Campbell HC Scotti Sentes last week in Nebraska. If you’ve seen their duals on the Army base the last two years, you know how awesomely unique it was. Well, Scotti said their dual at Wyoming - The Battle In The Barn - on UFC Fight Pass, might even be a cooler setup. 2. Oregon State Visits Carver This is such a sneaky good dual. Last week, I said Navy at Pitt would be a good one and this one stacks up similarly but with the added bonuses of 1) being in a sold-out, raucous Carver-Hawkeye Arena, 2) being the first high-profile dual of the year for the Hawks, 3) featuring a lineup that has been perhaps the most discussed in the history of college wrestling’s offseason. While it’s a long shot, The Beavers bring in a squad that could knock off the perennial power. Let’s break it down: 125: Drake Ayala is a favorite over All-American Brandon Kaylor who has taken some not-great losses recently. Still, a Kaylor win wouldn’t be earth-shattering. 133: Brody Teske or Jace Rhodes vs. Gabe Whisenunt Whisenhunt was a guy I highlighted in a previous ‘Best New Starters’ article. I think he’d be neck-and-neck with Teske, who might be out for this dual. I’d take Whisenhunt over Rhodes. 141: Real Woods vs. Cleveland Belton This is the clearest pick of the dual. Woods should post bonus. 149: Victor Voinovich vs. Noah Tolentino Voinovich is a favorite here but 1) he wrestles really tight matches and 2) Tolentino is a good young prospect from powerhouse Poway, California. For comparative purposes, they have one common opponent: Voinovich beat Baptist’s Dayne Morton 2-1; Tolentino beat him 8-2. If Tolentino can hold his own on bottom - or better yet, get out - we could have a good bout on our hands. 157: Jared Franek vs. Murphy Menke Franek is among the best in the country at 157 and a real title contender. With the 3pt. Takedown, he could approach bonus. 165: Michael Caliendo vs. Matt Olguin Caliendo is a slight favorite. This was a Round of 16 match at NCAA’s won by Caliendo, 9-8. Duals have a way of going off-script quickly, but a pre-match assessment suggests this is a must-have for Oregon State. 174: Gabe Arnold or Aiden Riggins vs. Travis Wittlake Arnold recently won a tournament where Riggins was also in the bracket. With the new five-match rule for redshirts, you’d think Iowa would utilize this spot for Arnold - a blue-chip true freshman. Wittlake is a super senior and former AA who is finally at his perfect weight. While an Arnold win wouldn’t shock anyone, the conservative pick would probably be to go with Wittlake and his riding ability. 184: Brennan Swafford vs. Trey Munoz This is another bout where there is a clear pick in returning All-American Munoz. However, Swafford is a seasoned veteran who wrestles hard as hell and making his second career start ever and his first in Carver. He’s going to be fired up. 197: Zach Glazier vs. Justin Rademacher Glazier was my #83 overall prospect in 2019 who had to wait to get into starting action behind 5x All-American Jacob Warner. Rademacher placed everywhere in high school and is a true freshman who I tabbed #56 in this year’s class. I view it as a toss-up match, perhaps favoring the veteran, especially in his home gym. 285: Brad Hill vs. Boone McDermott Like 197, HWT presents another weight for the Hawks where their mainstay, Tony Cassioppi, is gone. In steps Brad Hill, the #112 ranked prospect of 2022. His opponent will be Iowa native Boone McDermott. I think most handicappers would give Boone the slight edge due to his experience, but I think anything goes in this bout. Big Picture: Oregon State needs 133 and 165 to make this a thing. If they do, we have a dual on our hands. If they don’t, it could get ugly. They are big ‘ifs’; but it could get fun. Possible upset? Yeah. Probable? No. And in Carver. Too many things have to go right and even a 5-5 split would spell a Hawks win with bonus potential at 41 and 57. Gimme the Hawks 20-13. 1. Pork Roll (Taylor Ham) Week For The Hokies On Jagger Night Earl sent me the duals for this week’s pick ‘ems and I quickly, too quickly, took Virginia Tech. Looking at it closer, RU really has a shot in this dual. Two weeks ago, Ventresca would have been a slight favorite over Mean Dean Peterson in a 125lb matchup of two Garden State natives. But Eddie is in a rut. Dean needs to get it done for 1) Me, his fantasy owner and 2) Jagger, his greatest fan. All-American Sam Latona should be considered a favorite over a bumped up Dylan Shawver, but Sam has a history of early-season losses and Shawver has got some dawg in him. Transfer Mitch Moore gives the Knights a favorite at 141. But here comes Tech’s wheelhouse where Henson and Andonian could both bonus. Toss up at 165 with Anthony White and Connor Brady. I’ll take White in a mild upset. Mekhi is favored over Turley at 174, but then RU is favored, albeit slightly, in the final three bouts. Big Picture: I think Rutgers can get to five, but they’ll have to limit the bonus in some spots to get the dual victory. Oh, wait, I forgot. It’s Jagger Night. Rutgers by a million!

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What Willie's Watching (11/17/2023)

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