What Willie's Watching (1/11/2024)

We’ve turned the corner in the college wrestling season. Mid-January means almost all attention is on in-conference duals. We’ll see #2 vs. #3 in the Big Ten and the end of an era in the EIWA. Both are among the five big things I’m focusing on this weekend. 5. Adds With classes starting in Iowa City next Tuesday, will anyone be added to the team? Amid months of speculation, Iowa skipper Tom Brands spoke at a press conference Tuesday and, when asked if the team would have any roster additions this semester he said, ‘We do not, at this moment.’ It’s not crystal clear, but it’s an indication that neither Anthony nor AJ Ferrari will be joining the Hawks after that seemed to be a foregone conclusion throughout the offseason, fall semester, and over the holidays. There have also been rumors and mixed messages regarding a possible Gable Steveson return. 4. Drops Does Daton or Vito drop to 125? With the Olympic Team Trials (April 19th) in such close proximity to NCAA’s (March 23rd), it could make sense for either to shrink down well ahead of time. Increasing the intrigue and plausibility for this to happen was Daton purportedly weighing in well under 133lbs for his dual last week against NC State, and Vito’s absence from the Big Red lineup. Vito hasn’t competed since December 18th and could be avoiding weigh-ins until he can make a weight that allows him to go 125 based on the descent plan formula. Recent quotes from Mike Grey indicate that Vito plans to remain at 133. 3. Mean Dean vs. The King Slayer Rutgers visits Purdue this week and it should be a good dual. But the marquee match will be last week’s #2 at 125, Dean Peterson, vs. this week’s #2, Matt Ramos. Other than what follows below, it could be the biggest individual bout of the weekend. 2. Huskers & Hawks Iowa hasn’t lost to Nebraska since Jim Zelesky’s last year at the helm. The next year, Tom Brands took over and the Hawks have won 14 straight vs. The Huskers. But Iowa lost six starters from last year’s dual lineup and Nebraska is reinforced with #1-Ridge Lovett off redshirt. The Huskers have a real shot to beat their neighbors to the east this year. It’s the premier dual of the week and will be televised on The Big Ten Network on Friday night. Here’s the projected lineups; picks in BOLD: 125: #5-Drake Ayala (I) vs. #7-Caleb Smith (N) History: Ayala beat Smith in 2022, 5-2. The Pick: Smith is much improved and could certainly win but I’m going with precedence. 133: #7-Brody Teske (I) vs. #30-Jacob Van Dee (N) History: Teske beat Van Dee two weeks ago 5-4. The Pick: They traded takedowns. Van Dee can win, but like 125, Teske is the safe pick. 141: #1-Real Woods (I) vs. #7-Brock Hardy (N) History: Woods beat Hardy 6-4 in the Big Ten Finals and then majored him at NCAA’s. The Pick: Hardy gave Real a good go in the B1G finals while the lopsided win at NCAA’s came in a match where Hardy broke his ribs. Gimme Real in a regular decision. 149: #12-Caleb Rathjen (I) vs. #1-Ridge Lovett (N) History: Never met The Pick: I like Rathjen. But with three-point takedowns and four-point nearfall, I think this is on the verge of bonus. Gimme a regular decision though. Something like 8-2. 157: #2-Jared Franek (I) vs. #3-Peyton Robb (N) History: Robb beat Franek last year in a dual while Franek returned the favor at NCAA’s. The Pick: On one hand, Robb won a controlling 7-4 bout in the regular season and Franek’s win came when PRobb had, literally, a flesh-eating skin infection. On the other hand, Robb just got beat by #12 Ryder Downey of UNI. It’s tough to call. I think maybe the Downey loss gets Robb refocused. I’ll take him by a takedown. 165: #7-Mikey Caliendo (I) vs. #19-Antrell Taylor (N) History: Never met The Pick: Taylor is one of the nation’s brightest freshmen stars. He wrestles fearlessly, so he’ll certainly give himself scoring opportunities. But Caliendo is seasoned- a returning AA and proven commodity. Caliendo is the pick. 174: NR-Patrick Kennedy or Gabe Arnold (I) vs. #30-Bubba Wilson (N) History: Kennedy majored Wilson in last year’s dual. The Pick: While I think Iowa may consider Gabe, it might not make much sense in this spot. Kennedy already proved he can get the win (and bonus), and both he and Gabe would be an underdog to Pinto at 184. 184: NR-Aiden Riggins or NR-Gabe Arnold (I) vs. #3-Lenny Pinto (N) History: Never met The Pick: If Iowa is in trouble in the dual, I could see them using Gabe, who, unlike Riggins in my opinion, has a shot to win vs. Pinto. That being said, I’d take Pinto over either. 197: #16-Zach Glazier (I) vs. #11-Silas Allred (N) History: Never met The Pick: Silas was the Big Ten Champ as a freshman last year with two wins over the defending national champ. WrestleStat has a major for Allred, but I’ll call it a regular decision. 285: NR-Bradley Hill or NR-Ben Kueter (I) vs. NR-Harley Andrews or NR-Nash Hutmacher (N) History: Never met The Pick: I think it’s going to be Hill vs. Hutmacher. Kueter’s probably not up to speed yet after his bowl game. I’d take Hutmacher over either, but feel Kueter gives them a better chance. Overall Thoughts: I have it 5-5 with Iowa winning the first two and Nebraska winning the last three. But beyond the individual match picks, many of which are toss-ups, I think Iowa pulls it out. The intangibles, ya know. Iowa always seems to get it done. 1. End of an Era Since 2002 only two schools have won the EIWA tournament: Cornell, thirteen times; Lehigh nine times. Their duals have been heated and often filled with twists and turns and the unexpected. The two may continue their rivalry in duals going forward, but with the Ivy League starting their own league this is the last dance under the EIWA banner. And you should tune in not just for the nostalgia - this dual is loaded with great bouts. At 125 Brett Ungar could see Luke Stanich, who just won Midlands. At 133, we could possibly see a rematch from the earth-shaking Crookham-over-Vito result from November, though Grey’s recent statement seems to lean towards Vito being out for another week or two. At 141, Hines and Cornella are ranked 16 & 17. Cardenas and Beard are #7 and #9 at 197, respectively. And #10-Taylor will face #19-Fernandes at heavyweight.

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What Willie's Watching (1/11/2024)

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