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    Predicting Success: Talent only small part of equation

    Predicting post-high school success for a talented high school wrestler can be an extremely difficult task. As many college coaches have come to find out, wrestling talent becomes only a small part of the equation. Work ethic, commitment, coachability, and other variables factor into the equation.

    Let's take a look back at RevWrestling.com's top-five high school seniors from the preseason rankings over the past three seasons and see how each has panned out. Each wrestler is given a letter grade based on his ability to live up to his national high school ranking thus far in his career.

    2006

    1. David Craig (Florida)

    David Craig (Photo/Danielle Hobeika)
    High School: Craig was an absolute monster as a high school wrestler at national powerhouse Brandon High School in Florida. He won three state titles and compiled an unblemished record of 179-0. As RevWrestling.com's high school analyst wrote at the start of Craig's senior season, "David Craig has been the top 171-pounder in the nation since his sophomore year. In 2005-2006, to paraphrase Shakespeare, he stands over all others at his weight class like a colossus."

    Post High School: Craig has not lived up to his billing at Lehigh. He is now entering his junior season and has yet to find a spot on the All-American podium. He was one match away from All-American status as a freshman at 184 pounds and missed most of his sophomore season because of academic issues.

    Grade: C
    Although Craig has yet to live up to his billing as the next great college wrestling star, he did reach the round of 12 in his only NCAA appearance as a true freshman, which is no small task. He still has two more seasons of college wrestling, so it's not fair to write him off as a complete bust yet.

    2. Henry Cejudo (Arizona/Colorado)

    Henry Cejudo (Photo/Danielle Hobeika)
    High School: Cejudo was a phenom. His dominance in high school wrestling (four-time state champion) was overshadowed by his dominance in the international styles of freestyle and Greco-Roman. In freestyle, Cejudo completely dominated several highly touted stars, including Mike Grey, Franklin Gomez, and Paul Donahoe … just to name a few. But Cejudo's most impressive victories came on the senior level in events such as the NYAC and Sunkist tournaments. He crushed NCAA champion Jason Powell and also defeated Besik Kudukhov from Russia, a Junior World champion at the time who would later win a World title on the senior level.

    Post High School: Cejudo's post high school career has been well documented. He made the decision to forgo college wrestling to live and train in Colorado Springs at the U.S. Olympic Training Center. Cejudo steadily climbed the U.S. ladder in freestyle while training under the tutelage of Terry Brands. In 2006, Cejudo became the first high school wrestler to win the U.S. Nationals since USA Wrestling became the national governing body for the sport in 1983. In 2007, he made the U.S. World Team. In 2008, Cejudo won an Olympic gold medal.

    Grade: A
    Yeah, I would say winning an Olympic gold medal just three years removed from getting your high school diploma gets you an A.

    3. Billy Murphy (California)

    High School: Murphy might not have been the most technically-polished wrestler in high school, but he made up for it by wrestling an aggressive, attacking style. He was often compared to the Brands brothers. So it was no surprise when he signed to wrestle for Tom Brands, first at Virginia Tech, then at Iowa. Murphy compiled a prep career record of 168-3 in California and was a two-time Junior Nationals champion, earning Outstanding Wrestler honors as a junior.

    Post High School: As a redshirt, Murphy went 15-0 at 133 pounds and won titles at Spartan Classic, Kaufman-Brand Open, and Northern Iowa Opens. But in February of his redshirt season, Murphy was dismissed from the team at Iowa because of grades and behavior problems. Following his dismissal, Murphy began competing in local MMA events in Iowa. He enrolled at Kirkwood Community College before transferring to Iowa Central Community College.

    Grade: D
    Nobody has ever questioned Murphy's wrestling talents. His perfect record as a redshirt proves that he has the potential to be a very successful Division I wrestler. Whether he can get his off-the-mat issues resolved remains to be seen.

    4. Garrett Scott (Pennsylvania)

    High School: Many considered Scott to be the best high school wrestler to come out of wrestling-rich Pennsylvania since the great Cary Kolat. Scott made two appearances in Fargo, winning Cadet Nationals titles in freestyle after his eighth and ninth grade seasons. He was a three-time state champion, but was unable to go for his fourth state title … because he was suspended for violating his charter school's Internet use policy. That was not the only off-the-mat issue with Scott during his senior year. He and three others were arrested by state police for possession of drug paraphernalia during a traffic stop, although Scott said the pipe that was found was not his.

    Post High School: Scott's off-the-mat issues followed him to Penn State. He lost his wrestling scholarship at Penn State when he enrolled as a part-time student his freshman year in 2006-2007. He was not on the Penn State wrestling roster that season. He was suspended before the start of last season after an arrest for underage drinking. Scott eventually found himself back on the mat … and defeated returning All-American Jake Strayer to make the lineup for the Nittany Lions. He showed flashes of what made him one of the top recruits in the country, like his 8-0 thumping of All-American Nick Gallick of Iowa State and his victory over highly-regarded Kellen Russell of Michigan, but battled knee injuries and inconsistency. A banged up Scott, wrestling with an LCL tear, reached the round of 12 at the NCAAs. Following the season, Scott found himself in trouble again and was dismissed from the team. He has since transferred to Edinboro, where he is expected to redshirt this season.

    Grade: C
    Like Murphy, wrestling talent has never been the issue with Scott. He is extremely tough on the mat and has a great feel for the sport. At this point, nothing would surprise me with Scott. He has the potential to be an NCAA champion and multiple-time All-American if he is committed to the sport. But that commitment has been missing for several years now.

    5. Mike Grey (New Jersey)

    Mike Grey (Photo/Danielle Hobeika)
    High School: Grey is best known for becoming the first four-time state champion in New Jersey, which is an amazing accomplishment when you consider how much wrestling talent is in the state (not even including Blair Academy). He posted a 157-2 record and also picked up a Junior Nationals title and an NHSCA Nationals title.

    Post High School: Grey originally committed to Lehigh, but changed his mind in late summer and decided to enroll at Cornell. Grey stepped into the lineup for The Big Red last season as a freshman and made an immediate impact. He posted a 42-9 record and became an All-American by placing sixth at the NCAAs. For his efforts, Grey was named 2008 Rev Freshman of the Year.

    Grade: A-
    Grey has lived up to his billing. He is in a great situation at Cornell and should challenge for an NCAA title this season.

    2007

    1. Kirk Smith (Idaho)

    High School: Smith won four national championships in high school. He was also a four-time state finalist in Idaho, winning the state title twice.

    Post High School: As a true freshman, Smith wrestled unattached during the few weeks of the season. After winning the Southern Scuffle, Smith became the 184-pound starter for Boise State. He went on to become the first true freshman and the first Boise State wrestler since 2006 to earn All-American honors as he placed eighth at the NCAAs.

    Grade: A-
    Smith showcased his talents in his first season in the Boise State lineup. Expect him to move up on the All-American podium this season and possibly challenge for an NCAA title.

    2. Albert White (Illinois)

    High School: White, a product of the infamous Harvey Twisters, is one of the best high school wrestlers the state of Illinois has ever produced. As a high school wrestler at Chicago St. Rita High School, White posted a record of 200-4 and won four state titles. He was also a Junior Nationals champion in Fargo.

    Post High School: White originally committed to the University of Illinois, but grade issues landed him at North Iowa Area Community college instead. He dazzled in his first year at NIACC, posting a 31-3 record and winning the 149-pound NJCAA title. He is expected to redshirt this season at NIACC before transferring to a Division I school.

    Grade: C
    White has yet to fulfill his promise as a Division I wrestler, but was very impressive in his one season at the junior college level.

    3. Clayton Foster (Idaho)

    High School: Foster, like Kirk Smith, hails from the state of Idaho. He won three Idaho state titles and compiled a record of 160-11. He was also a two-time national champion at 189 pounds.

    Post High School: Foster began his first year at Oklahoma State as a redshirt, but was pulled out of redshirt at the NWCA/Cliff Keen National Duals. He posted a 22-11 record competing at 197 pounds. He showed flashes of his great potential when he took down eventual NCAA champion Phil Davis of Penn State twice in a match. This past summer, Foster won on a bronze medal at the 2008 FILA Junior World Championships in Istanbul, Turkey.

    Grade: B
    Foster was solid in his first season in the Oklahoma State lineup, but not spectacular. He wrestled some good matches, but never seemed able to break through and beat the highly-ranked opponents. His FILA Junior World medal should give him some additional confidence heading into this season.

    4. Corey Jantzen (New York)

    Corey Jantzen
    High School: For many years, Corey Jantzen was known primarily as Jesse Jantzen's little bro. The older Jantzen became a New York wrestling icon after he won four New York state titles and became an NCAA champion at Harvard. But when Corey Jantzen reached high school, he quickly made a name for himself. He became a four-time county champion and two-time New York state champion with a career record of 185-7. As a high school senior, Jantzen competed in the Midlands and placed seventh. One of the most impressive accomplishments on his high school resume was his victory on the senior level in freestyle over two-time NCAA runner-up Chris Fleeger at the NYAC tournament.

    Post High School: Jantzen, like his older brother, was an NCAA qualifier for Harvard as a freshman. He posted a 14-8 record, but missed seven weeks of the season due to injury.

    Grade: B
    Jantzen might not have quite lived up to his hype in his first season at Harvard, but still turned in a solid freshman campaign. He was also a bit undersized competing at 141 pounds. Keep in mind that his older brother, Jesse, also failed to become an All-American as a freshman, but then went on to become a three-time All-American and an NCAA champion his senior season.

    5. Cody Gardner (Virginia)

    High School: Gardner, who wrestled for national powerhouse Christiansburg High School in Virginia, won nearly everything as a prep wrestler. He dominated the 215-pound weight class nationally and won big event after big event. He picked up four Virginia state titles and amassed a record of 186-6.

    Post High School: Gardner enrolled at Virginia Tech as a heavyweight, but quit the team in December of 2007. His father, Keith, was quoted in the Roanoke Times as saying, "He didn't have that burning desire to wrestle. If you talk to him, he's not going to wrestle (ever again). He's kind of hung up his shoes. It's kind of a shock, but I knew something was wrong. His heart wasn't in it. It was his choice to leave." But Gardner made the decision to return to the sport in May and wrestle at Ohio State. He is expected to compete at 197 pounds for the Buckeyes. From all accounts in Columbus, Gardner is back on track with his wrestling career.

    Grade: D

    2008

    1. Mario Mason (New Jersey)

    High School: Mason starred at Blair Academy in New Jersey. He compiled an extremely impressive high school wrestling resume, which included winning titles at NHSCA Nationals and Junior Nationals (freestyle) after his junior and senior seasons. He also won three National Prep titles.

    Post High School: Mason is attending the University of Minnesota. He will wrestle at 149 pounds, but it remains to be seen whether he will redshirt or compete in the lineup for the Gophers this season.

    Grade: Incomplete

    2. Scott Winston (New Jersey)

    High School: Winston went 137-0 and won three New Jersey state titles. He's the only wrestler New Jersey history to win at least 100 matches and graduate with an undefeated record. He won a Junior Nationals title in freestyle in 2007, but did not compete in Fargo this past summer.

    Post High School: Winston is enrolled at Rutgers University and wrestling under his former high school coach, Scott Goodale. He is expected to be in the lineup at 157 pounds this season.

    Grade: Incomplete

    3. Mike Mangrum (Washington)

    High School: Mangrum won three Washington state titles, but made a name for himself by his performance in national events. He won national titles in Fargo four times. This past May, Mangrum won a gold medal at the Junior Pan Am Championships in freestyle.

    Post High School: Mangrum attends Oregon State University. It has not been determined whether Mangrum will compete for the Beavers this season or redshirt.

    Grade: Incomplete

    4. Jason Welch (California)

    Jason Welch (Photo/Tech-Fall.com)
    High School: Welch was the recipient of the Junior Dan Hodge Trophy -- an award presented to the nation's top high school wrestler. He compiled a high school record of 194-7 and won three California state titles. He finished his high school career on a 142-match winning streak. He also competed in the Midlands as a high school senior, placing sixth.

    Post High School: Welch attends Northwestern University. Although no official announcement has been made, Welch is expected to compete in the lineup for the Wildcats this season at 157 pounds.

    Grade: Incomplete

    5. Nate Moore (Iowa)

    High School: Moore posted a high school record of 181-3. He was a four-time Iowa state finalist and two-time state champion who went undefeated over his final two seasons. He was also a two-time Junior Nationals champion in Fargo.

    Post High School: Moore attends the University of Iowa. He is expected to redshirt this season and compete unattached at 125 pounds.

    Grade: Incomplete

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