Ceilings and Floors for the Pac-12 at the 2024 NCAA Championships

The Pac-12 has one more chance to represent themselves as a conference at the NCAA Wrestling Championships. Arizona State leads with eight qualifiers while Stanford, Oregon State Cal Poly and Little Rock have five wrestlers. With the wrestlers ranked across each weight class, let’s take a look and predict where each wrestler can finish in their weight class. 125 No. 8 Richard Figueroa Ceiling: High All-American Floor: Bloodround Figueroa will have a tough matchup in the second round against Patrick McKee. Although McKee is known for his success in the wrestlebacks, his experience could lead him to a victory in the second round. Therefore, Figueroa must battle back a few rounds before most likely facing Troy Spratley. Figueroa lost 13-5 to Spratley earlier this season. No. 14 Nico Provo Ceiling: Bloodround Floor: 1-2 Nico Provo will face some wrestlers with more experience in March than him. If he can sneak past Jett Strickenberger in the first round, he will battle Drake Ayala. If he loses, Provo can wrestle Brandon Kaylor, Noah Surtin and Cooper Flynn. No. 21 Brandon Kaylor Ceiling: Bloodround Floor: 1-2 Kaylor is a long shot but can work his way through the bracket via wrestlebacks. Kaylor defeated Provo, Spratley and Jore Volk this season. In addition, he defeated Surtin in 2022, who could be one of his wrestleback matches. 133 No. 7 Nasir Bailey Ceiling: Fifth Place Floor: Bloodround Bailey is one of the lucky wrestlers in the skewed 133-pound bracket since he avoids Vito Arujau and Daton Fix. If Bailey can stick to his seeding, he will find himself beating Kade Moore and Aaron Nagao before falling to Ryan Crookham. Afterwards, Bailey can defeat Sam Latona and another wrestler to reach the fifth-place match. No. 11 Zeth Romney Ceiling: 2-2 Floor: 1-2 Romney was placed in one of the toughest spots in the bracket. If Romney wins the first round, he will face Arujau. Afterwards, Romney can see Michael Colaiocco and Jacob Van Dee. Therefore, Romney’s postseason could be short. No. 24 Julian Chlebove Ceiling: 1-2 Floor: 0-2 Chlebove starts the tournament against Dominick Serrano. If Chlebove loses, he will most likely face Braden Basile. Afterward, Chlebove can face Bailey or Nagao. Chlebove lost by decision to Bailey twice this season. 141 No. 14 Jesse Vasquez Ceiling: Eighth Place Floor: 1-2 Jesse Vasquez is a wild card in this weight class because he has not faced a handful of the wrestlers due to injuries the last two seasons. In addition, he has split two matches with Malyke Hines, lost to Tom Crook 7-5 in 2022 and only has one loss not by an injury default. Therefore, Vasquez can out wrestle his seeding. No. 26 Cleveland Belton Ceiling: 1-2 Floor: 0-2 Belton will be facing some All-American hopefuls within the first few rounds. Therefore, Belton’s only favorable matchup is the first round of consolation against Danny Fongaro. 149 No. 2 Kyle Parco Ceiling: NCAA Champion Floor: Fourth Place Parco is the only wrestler to defeat Ridge Lovett this season, beating him 4-3 in the Nebraska dual. Although Parco is not flashy, he can dominate any wrestler in this weight. On the other hand, he did lose to Caleb Henson at the beginning of the season and could see him if both are competing for third place. No. 10 Chance Lamer Ceiling: Seventh Place Floor: 2-2 If Lamer can win his first two matches, his path to All-American is in his favor. Since has yet to beat Parco, Lamer would drop to the bloodround. Afterward, Lamer has beaten several wrestlers he can run across during his time in the Big Ten. No. 26 Jaden Abas Ceiling: 1-2 Floor: 1-2 Similar to Belton, Abas will face All-American hopefuls in the first few rounds. Therefore, Abas will only have one really favorable matchup. 157 No. 2 Jacori Teemer Ceiling: NCAA Champion Floor: Fourth place Teemer’s explosiveness is unmatched in the 157-pound class. His neutral and bottom game can be unparalleled at times too. However, Teemer has weaknesses on top and when he catches his breath. Therefore, Teemer can see himself on the upset watch against a few wrestlers, including Peyten Kellar and Ed Scott. No. 6 Daniel Cardenas Ceiling: Seventh place Floor: Bloodround Daniel Cardenas has a few favorable matchups on Thursday. However, Cardenas has the opportunity to face Meyer Shapiro, Will Lewan, Teemer, and Kellar before reaching All-American status. Cardenas will have to beat some formidable opponents, but he has the capability to do so. No. 29 Legend Lamer Ceiling: 1-2 Floor: 0-2 Lamer has struggled at the NCAA Championships during his career. Last season, he went 0-2 while his freshman year, he went 2-2 as a ninth seed. After falling to Ed Scoott, Lamer will face either Michael Blockhus or Max Brignola. Lamer lost to Blockhus in 2022 but never faced Brignola. No. 31 Matthew Bianchi Ceiling: 1-2 Floor: 0-2 Bianchi is one of the lowest seeded wrestlers in the weight class. His one chance will come in the first round of consolations despite being the lower seed in every matchup. He will face Teemer in the first round. 165 No. 13 Joseph Bianchi Ceiling: Bloodround Floor: 1-2 Bianchi and Garvin face each other in the first round. Bianchi holds a 2-0 record against Garvin and should win again. Afterward, Bianchi faces David Carr. Once he drops to consolation, Binachi will have three potential toss-up matches that can have his season end early or make a push for All-American. No. 20 Hunter Garvin Ceiling: 2-2 Floor: 1-2 Garvin has yet to beat Bianchi and will most likely drop the third matchup between the two wrestlers. Garvin can win his next matchup before running across some more unfavorable opponents. 174 No. 8 Adam Kemp Ceiling: Seventh place Floor: Bloodround Since Carter Starocci drew the nine seed, Kemp will have to face the Penn State wrestler in the second round. The two wrestled last season and Starocci won 10-4. Afterward, Kemp will battle some unfamiliar wrestlers with weaker resumes. Kemp’s toughest potential matchups before placing will be Jackson Turley, whom he beat 8-5 this season, and Rocco Welsh. No. 33 Cael Valencia Ceiling: 1-2 Floor: 0-2 As the final wrestler to make the NCAA tournament, Valencia’s path is the toughest. If Valencia wins his pigtail matchup, he will face Mekhi Lewis. Afterward, Valencia will run across middle-tier wrestlers who could take care of him early. 184 No. 4 Trey Munoz Ceiling: Third place Floor: Seventh place Trey Munoz has struggled against the other top seeds in the weight class. Munoz has lost to Parker Keckeisen, Lenny Pinto, Bernie Truax and Dylan Fishback in the last two seasons. Therefore, Munoz will have to beat at least one of these guys to fulfill his seed. No. 31 Tony Negron Ceiling: 1-2 Floor: 0-2 Negron begins the tournament as a large underdog against Isaiah Salazar. If he falls to Salazar, Negron will have another tough battle against either Reece Heller or Ryder Rogotzke. 197 No. 9 Stephen Little Ceiling: Eighth place Floor: Bloodround Little lost to Stephen Buchanan 4-1 at the beginning of the season. If it is a similar result, Little will wrestle back as a favorite for a few matchups. Once Little reaches the bloodround, he would most likely need to defeat Tanner Sloan or Lou Deprez to reach All-American status. No. 18 Nick Stemmet Ceiling: 2-2 Floor: 0-2 Stemmet has beaten Max Shaw and Joseph Novak, a potential consolation matchup on Friday morning. On the other hand, Stemmet’s wins were by decision. If he does win, he would face Trent Hidlay. No. 29 Justin Rademacher Ceiling: 1-2 Floor 0-2 Rademacher’s only win against a NCAA qualifier was against Stemmet. However, Rademacher lost two against Stemmet and a handful of matches against NCAA qualifiers. Therefore, his postseason may end quickly. 285 No. 4 Cohlton Schultz Ceiling: NCAA Champion Floor: Sixth place If Schultz wins his first two matches, he will most likely face Nathan Taylor, whom he defeated 3-2 last season. Schultz will face Kerkvliet, who he also defeated in 2021. Schultz also faced Yonger Bastida this season, losing 4-3. Therefore, Schultz has an opportunity to pull off a couple of upsets and win it all. No. 14 Boone McDermott Ceiling: Bloodround Floor: 2-2 McDermott will most likely face Wyatt Hendrickson in the second round and drop to the consolation bracket. Afterward, McDermott will have a few toss-up matches that can put him within reach of an All-American status. No. 27 Josiah Hill Ceiling: 1-2 Floor: 0-2 Hill will begin against Zach Elam and could drop to the consolations. Afterward, Hill will face a few wrestlers on the verge of reaching All-American status. No. 28 Trevor Tinker Ceiling: 1-2 Floor: 0-2 Tinker is in the same situation as Hill. After facing Taylor, Tinker will need to face some middle-tier wrestlers looking to fight through the blood rounds. Team Predictions Arizona State Ceiling: Fourth place Floor: 10th place The Sun Devils' final standing will depend on Parco, Teemer and Schultz. If Parco or Teemer can win a title and Schultz out-wrestles his seed, ASU can return with another top-four finish. Cal Poly Ceiling: 25th Floor: 35th Chance Lamer and Adam Kemp are the only shots for the Mustangs to secure points in the tournament. If the Mustangs can earn around 10 points, they can find themselves fighting for top 25 status. Little Rock Ceiling: 20th Floor: 30th Little Rock relies on its young core of wrestlers. If Nasir Bailey and Stephen Little can make a run in their respective classes, Little Rock can turn heads in Kansas City. Oregon State Ceiling: 20th Floor: 30th Oregon State will rely heavily on a Munoz championship run for the majority of their points. However, if Kaylor can fight in wrestlebacks and McDermott wins a few, the Beavers can jump into the top 20. Stanford Ceiling: 25th Floor: 30th The majority of Stanford’s team points will come from Daniel Cardenas. Besides Cardenas, Provo may be a viable option for a couple of points during consolations.

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