Here are five things to watch across the events.
1. Cadet star gazing
If the initial grade level rankings for the 2013-14 season were to be published today, four of the five number one ranked wrestlers would be slated to compete in the FILA Cadet freestyle competition to be held on Saturday and Sunday. The following is a breakdown of each of their respective weight class fields.
California native Cade Olivas is projected to be the nation's top junior high wrestler for the 2013-14 season. He is registered at 46 kilo (92.5 pounds) for this weekend's event. His resume could already be an article in and of itself: two Super 32 Challenge middle school titles, multiple Ohio TofC titles, multiple Roller World of Wrestling triple crowns, the 2013 Cadet National folkstyle title, et al. Others in his weight bracket include 2013 Tulsa Nationals champion Austin Gomez (Illinois); Kade Gfeller (Oklahoma), 2012-13 runner-up at Tulsa KOC and Tulsa Nationals to Olivas and Gomez respectively; as well as 2011-12 Tulsa KOC and Tulsa Nationals champion Louie Hayes (Illinois).
Spencer Lee (Pennsylvania) is currently the nation's top junior high wrestler, and is projected to be the top Class of 2017 wrestler come next month. This weekend he is registered in the 50 kilo (110.25 pounds) weight bracket. During the 2012-13 season, Lee finished runner-up at both the Super 32 Challenge and FloNationals, and won a fourth consecutive PJW championship. Primary challengers for Lee include Kyle Norstrem (Florida), who is ranked No. 16 in the Class of 2016 and is the defending Cadet National and FILA Cadet National champion in Greco-Roman; defending Junior National freestyle champion Tanner Rohweder (Iowa); National Prep champion Jack Mueller (Texas), runner-up at the Preseason Nationals; Cadet freestyle third-place finisher Nolan Hellickson (Iowa); returning FILA Cadet freestyle runner-up Chris Cuccolo (New York); and returning FILA Cadet freestyle third-place finisher Doyle Trout (Nebraska).
Zahid Valencia (California) is the nation's top-ranked Class of 2015 wrestler, and has already won a pair of USA Wrestling titles while in high school; a Cadet National freestyle title last summer, and a Junior National folkstyle title this spring. This weekend, he headlines a solid field of wrestlers at 58 kilos (127.75 pounds). Primary challengers include two of the nation's top 50 seniors-to-be (Class of 2014): No. 36 Cole Weaver (Michigan) and No. 48 Coy Ozias (Virginia). Four other notable Class of 2014 wrestlers in this field include three-time state finalist, and 2012 state champion, Isaiah Locsin (California); Sean Fausz (Kentucky), who was third in this event last year; Mark Voss (Minnesota), who was fourth in this event last year; and Jacob Rubio (Texas), who finished fourth in both styles at the Cadet Nationals last summer in Fargo. Others to watch include Julian Flores (California), who is ranked No. 18 in the Class of 2016, and Nick Lee (Indiana), who is ranked No. 5 among junior high wrestlers.
Lastly Aaron Pico (California) is the nation's top Class of 2016 wrestlers, and among the best overall high school aged wrestlers. Pico has already won a pair of Cadet National double titles, and this spring added a Junior National folkstyle title and a FILA Junior National double championship. Though one might call Pico a strong favorite, it isn't for a lack of competition with six other grade level ranked wrestlers in the field: Logan Massa (Michigan), ranked No. 8 in the Class of 2015; Ronnie Gentile (New Jersey), No. 12 in the Class of 2015; Joseph Smith (Oklahoma), ranked No. 16 in the Class of 2015; Fredy Stroker (Iowa), ranked No. 17 in the Class of 2015; Tyler Berger (Oregon), ranked No. 38 in the Class of 2014; and Larry Early (Illinois), ranked No. 40 in the Class of 2015. In addition, the list of registrants includes two-time Cadet freestyle champion Seth Gross (Minnesota), who also won a FILA Cadet national title last year; FILA Cadet runner-up Anthony Giraldo (New Jersey); as well as a pair of excellent Michigan natives in Nick Bennett and Justin Oliver.
2. New rules will be in effect
Last week, FILA held an Extraordinary Congress in Moscow, Russia as a result of the IOC's decision to remove wrestling from the Olympic Games -- at least tentatively -- effective in 2020. Part of FILA's reaction, in an attempt to keep wrestling in the games, was a revamp of the rules. These new rules go into effect immediately in FILA events, and therefore will be utilized this weekend. Please note that USA Wrestling has yet to decide if these new rules will be adopted during 2013 for domestic competition at the Cadet/Junior levels and below.
Much has been stated about the new rules. However, some of the key concepts in freestyle competition are the following:
While it is my opinion that the wrestlers (and coaches) will -- more or less -- effectively adapt to the new rules, it will still be interesting to see how things play out. Things to watch include potential changes in match techniques and tactics, as well as the flow of the matches. I am also interested to see how effectively the new rules are conveyed to the officials, and how effectively the officials are able to navigate the changes. Fan and spectator perception will also be interesting to track, though I think greater sample size than a couple of events will be needed to determine that.
3. Deep Cadet weight groups
At present, 39 wrestlers in the FILA Cadet Nationals freestyle competition are nationally ranked for their grade level. The breakdown by weight classes is as follows:
42 kilos (92.5 pounds): 1
46 (101.25): 1
50 (110.25): 2
54 (119): 4
58 (127.75): 5
63 (138.75): 7
69 (152): 5
76 (167.5): 8
85 (187.25): 3
100 (220.5): 3
125 (275.5): 0
All weight classes but 125 kilos (275.5 pounds) qualify their champion to the FILA Cadet World Championships to be held later this summer.
Of particular interest to me is the field at 76 kilos (167.5 pounds). Based on registration, the joint favorites would have to be Mark Hall (Minnesota) and Bo Nickal (Texas), each of whom won Cadet National freestyle titles last summer in Fargo. While one could say Hall has a greater resume, and success against the field at large, Nickal has demonstrated an ability to beat Hall -- pair of victories last year in folkstyle (Cadet Folkstyle Nationals) and freestyle (FILA Cadet Nationals).
Three other wrestlers in this field were runner-ups last summer in freestyle at the Cadet Nationals: Myles Martin (New Jersey), Kimball Bastian (Utah), and Chandler Rogers (Washington); Martin lost in the final to Hall, Bastian to Nickal in a battle of Greco-Roman national champions, and Rogers fell to Christensen whom he beat in the Greco-Roman final.
Additional nationally ranked wrestlers in the field at 76 kilos include Beau Breske (Wisconsin), second at the Cadet Folkstyle Nationals this spring; Chris Weiler (Pennsylvania) and Xavier Montalvo (Illinois), Cadet National double All-Americans last summer; as well as Jelani Embree (Michigan).
4. Filthy good University Nationals talent
Just take a check of the registration list for the University Nationals freestyle competition to be held on Saturday and Sunday. There are national champions and All-Americans through virtually every weight class, in addition the normal crop of younger wrestlers seeking the chance to compete and develop heading into a succeeding season where they'll be seeking spots in lineups and on the NCAA podium.
Winners in the University Nationals qualify for competition in the World University Games this summer, and top two finishers qualify for the World Team Trials to be held in late June in Stillwater, Oklahoma.
At the 55-kilo (121 pounds) weight class, one can look forward to a possible Nico Megaludis vs. Zach Sanders showdown. In two years of collegiate wrestling, without taking a redshirt, Megaludis has finished as national runner-up in both seasons; while Sanders capped off four All-American honors with a third-place finish in 2012. In fact, it was Megaludis who sent Sanders to the consolation bracket in 2012, his 7-4 quarterfinal victory was at the time viewed as an upset (the seventh seed beating the second seed). Also here will be defending champion Evan Silver.
Defending University Nationals champion and NCAA runner-up Jason Chamberlain headlines a field at 66 kilos (145.5 pounds) that features five other past and present All-Americans: Evan Henderson, James Green, Kevin LeValley, Nick Dardanes, and Mike Nevinger. Also in this weight class is the very talented Josh Kindig, who has made significant noise in age group freestyle competition over the course of his career.
The friendly rivalry between Kyle Dake and David Taylor has the chance to list another chapter this coming weekend in the 74-kilo (163-pound) competition at the University Nationals. Dake beat Taylor 5-4 in the NCAA final just over two months ago to cement arguably the greatest college career in history; four titles, four years, four weight classes, all without a redshirt. Taylor's collegiate resume is not too shabby either -- three NCAA finals appearances, including a title in 2012 to cement a season in which he won the Hodge Trophy. The two wrestled at the Olympic Trials last year, a match that Dake also won. (Editor's note: It's now being rumored that Dake will not be competing this weekend despite being registered.) To be forgotten in this weight class -- though he really shouldn't be -- is fellow NCAA champion Derek St. John, who won the 157-pound weight class this past year, and has the chance to repeat as national champion next year; St. John was fourth and second (to Dake) in his two prior collegiate seasons. Also present here is Ian Miller, who won the University Nationals at 70 kilos (154 pounds) last year.
The next weight class, 79 kilos (174 pounds), features three excellent wrestlers in Andrew Howe, Logan Storley, and Matt Brown. Howe has a trio of top three finishes at the NCAA tournament, including his title in 2010, was runner-up to Burroughs in the 2012 Olympic Trials, and was also a University Nationals champion in 2011. Storley has earned a pair of NCAA All-American honors (sixth and fourth) in his two years of collegiate competition after graduating high school in 2011; while Brown was runner-up at the NCAA tournament this past year in the 174 pound weight class, including a 3-2 semifinal victory over Storley.
Ed Ruth, arguably the nation's most talented collegiate wrestler, anchors the field at 84 kilos (185 pounds). He has dominated his way to national titles each of the last two years after finishing third as a freshman. Primary challenger in this weight class is Cayle Byers, who was third at 197 pounds in the 2012 NCAA tournament.
Dustin Kilgore is the lead figure at 96 kilos (211.5 pounds), and seeks a repeat University Nationals title. He also was a two-time NCAA finalist at 197 pounds (champion in 2011, runner-up in 2013), finished third in both the 2011 University Nationals and World Team Trials, and finished fourth at the Olympic Trials in 2012. Additionally in this weight class is Taylor Meeks, who finished fourth at the NCAA tournament this year after losing 8-6 to Kilgore in the national semifinals.
Lastly the competition at 120 kilos (264.5 pounds) is loaded with collegiate champions from three different divisions: Tony Nelson (Division I), who is also the defending University Nationals champion; Tyrell Fortune (Division II); and Eric Thompson (NAIA). Also present here are a trio of past Division I All-Americans: Nick Gwiazdowski, Spencer Myers, and Jeremy Johnson.
Projected favorites in the other two weight classes would be Tyler Graff, a three-time NCAA All-American coming off third-place finishes at the NCAA tournament and U.S. Open, and two-time NCAA fifth-place finisher Tyler Nauman; Graff is registered at 60 kilos (132), while Nauman is entered at 70 (154).
5. Picking FILA Cadet freestyle champions
Based on registered participants, the following wrestlers are my picks to win their weight classes …
42 kilo (92.5 pounds): Cade Olivas from California
46 (101.25): Daton Fix from Oklahoma
50 (110.25): Spencer Lee from Pennsylvania
54 (119): Stevan Micic from Indiana
58 (127.75): Zahid Valencia from California
63 (138.75): Aaron Pico from California
69 (152): Mason Manville from New Jersey
76 (167.5): Mark Hall from Minnesota
85 (187.25): Robert Steveson from Minnesota
100 (220.5): Lance Benick from Minnesota
125 (275.5): Gavin Jolley-Little from Indiana
Note: Information related to entrants is based on registered wrestlers as of 9 p.m. CT on Tuesday.
Josh Lowe will be providing coverage of the FILA Cadet and University freestyle Nationals on Saturday and Sunday with primary focus on the Cadet (high school aged) competition. A recap story will be posted on InterMat about the Cadet tournament, while periodic live updates will be provided through the weekend via twitter (http://www.twitter.com/JoshMLowe).
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