3x national qualifier Logan Kemp (Photo/West Liberty athletics)
#19 University of Pittsburgh-Johnstown vs #5 West Liberty University
6:30 PM (EST) Thursday November 4th
Academic Sports & Recreation Complex, West Liberty, West Virginia
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D2Wrestlestat Prediction
What a heavyweight bout we have to start the #D2Wrestle season out east. A historic powerhouse in the University of Pitt-Johnstown, coached by the incomparable Pat Pecora, enters unknown territory in 2021-22. They are a team full of youngsters looking to prove themselves after seeing nearly all of their 2020-21 season pass them by during the pandemic. They will meet the 5th-ranked West Liberty Hilltoppers, coming off a historic season under Danny Irwin. In just his second year at the helm, West Liberty crowned two champions and finished fourth at the national tournament. These two programs have switched roles; West Liberty is now the hunted, while UPJ is the hungry hunter.
They last met in December of 2019, with UPJ taking the dual 28-13 at home. The Mountain Cats will have four wrestlers from that lineup going for them Thursday night, with Matt Siszka featured as their lone #SuperSenior. He, Nate Smith (157), and Brock Biddle (174) all earned victories that night to propel their team forward. The Hilltoppers will only have two wrestlers back from that night, Chase Morgan (165) and Francesco Borsellino (Hwt). Morgan is one of six potential #SuperSeniors for coach Irwin although we may not see two-time defending national champion Tyler Warner in the lineup. UPJ has won seven meetings in a row against West Liberty, but 2021 could be a turning point.
Pat Pecora has led the Mountain Cats for the last 44 seasons and is the dean of NCAA Division II wrestling. Danny Irwin has now directed two different teams to trophy finishes at the NCAA tournament. Could this be the changing of the guard? I will break down the matchups, show you how D2Wrestlestat thinks has the edge, and give you my predictions. Follow along.
125
Matt Siszka (Super Senior) vs. #1 Cole Laya (Jr)
Wrestlestat Prediction: Cole Laya (West Liberty) winner by MD over Matt Siszka (UPJ)
You may want to dismiss Matt Siszka because of whom he is wrestling; that would be a mistake. Cole Laya is the returning national champion and ranked number one at this weight class, but that would be a mistake. He is a big underdog here, but the savvy veteran will have "Old Man" strength on his side. Wrestlestat is almost certainly right, though; that is not going to be enough to slow down Cole Laya. The junior is on an absolute tear right now, having won 14 straight matches and earning bonus points 10 times during the win streak. The last wrestler to beat him in November was #2 Nick Daggett (UNCP) in 2019. Cole Laya will get the Hilltoppers started off fast and the savvy veteran Siszka will need to keep this to just a major decision
Intermat Prediction: Cole Laya (West Liberty) winner by MD
Team Score: West Liberty 4 Pitt-Johnstown 0
133
Mason Myers (R-Fr) vs. #1 Tyler Warner (Super Senior) or Isaac Short (Fr)
Wrestlestat Prediction: Tyler Warner (West Liberty) winner by Dec over Mason Myers (UPJ)
Wrestlestat is wrong with their prediction here, but only because I have a notion that it will be the 3X West Virginia state champion Isaac Short getting the start for the Hilltoppers over Tyler Warner. The Point Pleasant High School graduate could see action right away as a true freshman and it will come in a perfect spot. Mason Myers is a true freshman himself despite finishing the Super Regional I tournament 1-2 last season. The do-over allows him to reset his clock and put that rough start behind him. The York, PA native, is going to have his hands full with Short, who will be looking to make an impression quickly. Tyler Warner has missed duals in the past for injury and rest. I expect that we will be seeing Short in the lineup a few times as Irwin looks to keep his #SuperSenior fresh for the important matches in March.
Intermat Prediction: Isaac Short (West Liberty) winner by Dec
Team Score: West Liberty 7 Pitt-Johnstown 0
141
Caleb Morris (So) vs. Marcus Jean-Baptiste (Sr)
Wrestlestat Prediction: Marcus Jean-Baptiste (West Liberty) winner by Dec over Caleb Morris (UPJ)
Caleb Morris narrowly missed a trip to the NCAA tournament in 2021 despite handing Noah Kiszka (Fairmont State) his only loss of the season and falling to Austin Hertel (Gannon) in sudden victory. In 2019, as a freshman at West Virginia, Morris was an above .500 wrestler whose only loss to D2 competition was a 12-8 defeat by eventual national champion Jose Rodriguez (Notre Dame). He will take on Marcus Jean-Baptiste, who I will now be referring to as MJB from now on. The #SuperSenior from Orlando, Florida seems to have taken a liking to "Country Roads" and, after following Danny Irwin from Wheeling Jesuit to West Liberty, finished fourth in Super Regional III a season ago. This is his last go and if you look at his results from 2021, you can see the talent. He notched a big win over #12 Breyden Bailey (Indianapolis) as the regional tournament. But once again, I think Wrestlestat misses the mark and I am going against the computer.
Intermat Prediction: Caleb Morris (UPJ) winner by DEC
Team Score: West Liberty 7 Pitt-Johnstown 3
149
#7 Jacob Ealy (R-So) vs. Jordan Watters (So)
Wrestlestat Prediction: Jacob Ealy (UPJ) winner by Dec over Jordan Watters (West Liberty)
Jordan Watters only loss last season was to teammate MJB at the West Liberty Open, but with only four collegiate matches under his belt, it is tough to judge him. Jacob Ealy won the 2020 Super Regional I title and turned an at-large bid in 2021 into an 8th place finish. The returning All-American will start his second sophomore campaign off with Watters in a match where his experience will almost certainly pay dividends. Do not underestimate a wrestler who was essentially in a do-or-die situation at a major tournament a year ago and was able to overcome that adversity. UPJ could really use some bonus points to keep it close with West Liberty down the stretch, but Ealy has never been one to put up those extra points. He has a career percentage that is below 40%.
Intermat Prediction: Jacob Ealy (UPJ) winner by Dec
Team Score: West Liberty 7 Pitt-Johnstown 6
157
Nate Smith (R-So) vs. Christian Rivera (SuperSenior)
Wrestlestat Prediction: Nate Smith (UPJ) winner by Dec over Christian Rivera (West Liberty)
Christian Rivera followed a similar route to MJB, from Florida to Wheeling to West Liberty. He wrestled well last season, finishing with a winning record, but was unable to break through at the Super Regional tournament. He will face redshirt-sophomore Nate Smith, who fell just short of a trip to St Louis despite finishing second at the Super Regional. In 2020, he was wrestling as well as nearly anyone in the country when an injury ended his season in early February. That is two years in a row he has been denied the national championship trip, and I, for one, would be surprised to see it happen a third time. There may seem like a disparity in maturing between a graduate assistant, Rivera, and a redshirt sophomore, but that is not the case here. Nate Smith wins when he opens up and against a tough wrestler like Rivera; it may be a battle, but when you look at the coaches Smith has to wrestle within his room, it is not hard to see how he has seemingly improved each season.
Intermat Prediction: Nate Smith (UPJ) winner by Dec
Team Score: Pitt-Johnstown 9 West Liberty 7
165
Dillon Keane (R-Fr) vs. #12 Chase Morgan (Sr)
Wrestlestat Prediction: Dillon Keane (UPJ) winner by Dec over Chase Morgan (West Liberty)
This will be Dillon Keane's first chance to see extended time in the Mountain Cats lineup and the Pennsylvania state placer should make the most of it. He starts his season off with a tough draw though Chase Morgan is a returning national qualifier which begins the season ranked 12th. The #SuperSenior earned an at-large bid to the national tournament in 2021 after finishing sixth in 2020. I am sure the 0-2 finish in St Louis has left a sour taste in his mouth and this will be his chance to end the bit of a losing streak he is battling through. Side with the experience and the established talent here, folks. Wrestlestat's algorithm misses the mark again, but do not worry, I am here to straighten you out.
Intermat Prediction: Chase Morgan (West Liberty) winner by Dec
Team Score: West Liberty 10 Pitt-Johnstown 9
174
#6 Brock Biddle (R-Jr) vs. Ty McGeary (So)
Wrestlestat Prediction: Brock Biddle (UPJ) winner by Dec over Ty McGeary (West Liberty)
This battle may end up the best match of the night; 3X All-American Brock Biddle will put his #6 ranking on the line against a wrestler who was just barely kept out of the national tournament a year ago. On paper, this would look to be all Biddle, his three-year record as a starter stands at 51-12. Here is what I want people to think about, though, in 2020, after coming off a redshirt freshman All-American campaign, Biddle lost four of his first five matches. He broke out of that sophomore slump as the season progressed, but if he comes out slow, he is going to be in trouble. Ty McGeary, like his teammate Tyler Warner, spent time as a student-athlete at Pitt-Johnstown. Now he finds himself at West Liberty with a chance to strike a decisive blow in what could be the biggest match of this dual. In any other season, his third-place finish at the Super Regional would have earned him a trip to the national tournament, but thanks to shortsighted and idiotic decision-making by the NCAA, he was forced to rely on an at-large bid that never came. What better way to come out and announce his presence with authority Nuke LaLouche style than to knock off a returning All-American at home under the lights.
Intermat Prediction: Brock Biddle (UPJ) winner by Dec
Team Score: Pitt-Johnstown 12 West Liberty 10
184
Gage Arnold (Fr) vs. #2 Connor Craig (SuperSenior)
Wrestlestat Prediction: Connor Craig (West Liberty) winner by TF over Gage Arnold (UPJ)
It must be nice to know that when the going gets tough in a dual, you have a 3X All-American and former national champion you can fall back on. I honestly expect #SuperSenior Connor Craig to come out and end this match quickly. He will be taking on true freshman Gage Arnold, who I expect to be roughly welcomed to the world of D2 wrestling. Now, Gage Arnold was a class of 2017 as near as I can tell, which is confusing the heck out of me because I can only find the one Gage Arnold from Coudersport, and he was a PA state qualifier in 2016 and 2017. Either there is another Gage Arnold from that same town, or else we have ourselves a 22-year-old true freshman who has returned to the mat. Which would actually be pretty awesome. Either way, Connor Craig is going to do what he does, which is score bonus points, something he does better than 60% of the time.
Intermat Prediction: Connor Craig (West Liberty) winner by Fall
Team Score: West Liberty 16 Pitt-Johnstown 12
197
Dakoda Rodgers (So) vs. #8 Logan Kemp (SuperSenior)
Wrestlestat Prediction: Logan Kemp (West Liberty) winner by MD over Dakoda Rodgers (UPJ)
Logan Kemp is a three-time national qualifier for West Liberty and only a season-ending injury as a junior kept it from being four-time. Last year in St. Louis, he found himself with a brutal draw that saw him finish 0-2 with losses to two eventual All-Americans. Kemp was a runner-up at the Super Regional III championship a year ago, earning a 0:33 fall over All-American Chris Droege (Lake Erie) on his way to the finals. When healthy, Logan Kemp is an absolute beast and this early in the season, his body will be free of the aches and pains that build up over time. It will be up to Dakoda Rodgers to wrest momentum back in this dual because if he cannot, it may be all over for the Mountain Cats. Dakoda Rodgers battled to a third-place finish in Super Regional I last season, which should have taken him to the national tournament. Thanks a lot, Covid! Instead, he brings a 1-1 career record into the 2022 season and an opening bout with Kemp. Sorry, buddy.
Intermat Prediction: Logan Kemp (West Liberty) winner by MD
Team Score: West Liberty 20 Pitt-Johnstown 12
Hwt
Ogden Atwood (So) or Isaiah Vance (Fr) vs. #7 Francesco Borsellino (So)
Wrestlestat Prediction: Ogden Atwood (UPJ) winner by Dec over Francesco Borsellino (West Liberty)
Quick, name the first national qualifier for Mount Olive University. Here is a hint, he is the starting heavyweight for Pitt-Johnstown this season. That is right, Gage Atwood. The starting job may be his only as long as he can stop three-time PA state placer, Isaiah Vance, from taking it. Regardless, one of them will be facing returning All-American Francesco Borsellino. It is crazy to think that he is just going to get even better; a year ago was the first time he focused on wrestling full-time and was not splitting attention with football. He parlayed that into an All-American finish and enters the season ranked seventh in one of the most loaded weight classes in the country. Wrestlestat needs to check their formulas; I am thinking they are using that Common Core math. If they were using that "new math" stuff from the 90s, they would realize that Borsellino should be favored here. Atwood is very tough, but he is more of a 2-1 heavyweight. Borsellino won eight of his 13 matches last season by pin. He is a high-reward wrestler firing quickly. Danny Irwin is one of the best big man coaches in the country and it will continue to pay big dividends for this lineup.
Intermat Prediction: Francesco Borsellino winner by Fall
Intermat Team Score Prediction: West Liberty 26 Pitt-Johnstown 12
Wrestlestat Team Score Prediction: West Liberty 19 Pitt-Johnstown 15
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