The wide open nature of the 2011 NCAA tournament in Philadelphia is shown in this opening weight class, where McDonough returns to defend his title and is not even the top seed. Five other wrestlers with All-American histories join him in this weight class. That top seed is Robles, an awesome human interest story, and he has an extremely manageable path to the final. On the other hand, McDonough has to navigate through the only wrestler to beat him this season -- Brandon Precin (Northwestern) -- in the semifinal round; Precin also has the highest placement among any wrestler other than McDonough.
133: No. 1 Jordan Oliver (Oklahoma State) over No. 3 Andrew Long (Penn State)
Through the course of this season, Jordan Oliver (Oklahoma State) has been the dominant figure with an undefeated record and convincing wins over his rivals. In fact, it can be argued that he is one of the clearer favorites this coming week. Life will not be easy as 2008 All-American Mike Grey (Cornell) could be his quarterfinal opponent, while returning All-American Tyler Graff (Wisconsin) is a possible semifinal matchup. The lower half of this draw features two of the key x-factors in the team title race, with Andrew Long (Penn State) and Tony Ramos (Iowa) possibly meeting in the quarterfinal round -- that presumes Ramos gets past 2009 All-American Scotti Sentes (Central Michigan) in the second round. With the way Long has been wrestling since stepping on the mat in Happy Valley -- he was runner-up at 125 pounds last year while competing for Iowa State -- I have a hard time seeing him losing prior to the final, and that also includes a potential semifinal bout against 2009 All-American Andrew Hochstrasser (Boise State).
141: No. 1 Kellen Russell (Michigan) over No. 2 Mike Thorn (Minnesota)
There are more returning All-Americans in this bracket then there are All-American slots to be given out this year (ten vs. eight). However, the standout wrestler of the season has been Kellen Russell (Michigan), who is undefeated and earned titles at Las Vegas, the Southern Scuffle, and Big Ten tournaments. That said, regular season success has not been a precursor to postseason performance for Russell in his past two tournament runs -- seeded third in 2008, he lost in the round of 12; while seeded first in 2009, he settled for seventh. Even with a tough path to the final -- Michael Mangrum (Oregon State), Zach Bailey (Oklahoma), and then either Montell Marion (Iowa) or Jimmy Kennedy (Illinois) -- I like Russell to be wrestling on Saturday night and earn the title. The easier (a very relative term) lower half of the draw, with only three All-Americans, is anchored by Thorn -- though he is looking at a quarterfinal against Tyler Nauman (Pittsburgh), a semifinalist last year. The other quarter of this half is the softest of the four with freshman sensation Andrew Alton (Penn State) and returning All-American Boris Novochkov (Cal Poly). One could say this is a draw that Alton must capitalize on for Penn State to win the team title.
149: No. 2 Frank Molinaro (Penn State) over No. 4 Kyle Dake (Cornell)
Oh the odds one could have gotten at the beginning of the year on the championship match not being 2010 NCAA champion Dake against 2009 NCAA champion Darrion Caldwell (North Carolina State). However, that match can now only happen in the semifinal round. Dake's loss in the EIWA final has to concern Cornell fans, though the draw is rather manageable -- only a quarterfinal against Jamal Parks (Oklahoma State) would be a legit concern. On the other hand, Caldwell has two very potentially dangerous matches prior to the semifinal round -- projected to be with Eric Grajales (Michigan) and Ganayar Sanjaa (American). Molinaro has become something of a cult sensation due to the "Gorilla Hulk" moniker from the Flowrestling previews of Cliff Fretwell and Lee Roper. His performance is one of many x-factors that could propel the Nittany Lions to an NCAA title this weekend.
157: No. 3 David Taylor (Penn State) over No. 4 Bubba Jenkins (Arizona State)
Why is the nation so fascinated with a redshirt freshman, who is a No. 3 seed at the NCAA tournament, and has not beaten an NCAA All-American this season?! Let me name you the reasons: a 34-0 record overall this season; a 16-0 mark against NCAA qualifiers; a 9-0 record against the six seeded opponents he has faced; and the fact he has earned a pin, major, or technical fall in all but two matches this year. Having seen Taylor ever since he was an undersized freshman at 103 pounds, and even before that in junior high, I've learned that picking against him is an absurd position to take. However, this is the weight class with a top four that has the wrestling nation in a tizzy. The semifinal involving Taylor and returning All-American Steve Fittery (American), both of whom are undefeated, could light the scoreboards up like Vegas. The other half of the draw features a fourth meeting between returning third placer Adam Hall (Boise State) and 2009 NCAA runner-up Bubba Jenkins (Arizona State); Jenkins won at the NWCA All-Star Classic, while Hall has won the last two meetings. Look for Taylor to replicate his mentor Cael Sanderson as an undefeated redshirt freshman with a finals victory over Jenkins that will have lots of drama on and off the mat.
165: No. 1 Jordan Burroughs (Nebraska) over No. 2 Andrew Howe (Wisconsin)
Unlike Caldwell and Dake, this much hyped matchup between NCAA champions will happen in the championship round on the raised mat Saturday evening. When the two wrestlers met at the Midlands in late December, Burroughs emerged as champion with a dominant performance in the neutral position. After sitting out last year, 2009 NCAA champion Burroughs has set himself to be a legit candidate for the Hodge Trophy as the nation's most dominant wrestler. 2010 champion Howe will be a game finals opponent, but having to sit out over a month late in the season does not help his cause.
174: No. 3 Mack Lewnes (Cornell) over No. 1 Jon Reader (Iowa State)
After earning All-American honors the first two years of his collegiate career, Reader had a very disappointing national tournament -- he lost in the opening round and then in the round of 12, failing to earn a spot on the podium. However, Reader has been a total buzz saw this year entering the national tournament with an undefeated record. The half of the draw opposite Reader features dynamite redshirt freshman Ed Ruth (Penn State) plus a trio of returning All-Americans. Look for two-time All-American Lewnes to avenge his Southern Scuffle loss to Ruth in the semifinal, a potentially key match for the team standings. Then, Lewnes is my pick to avenge his other loss of this season, with a victory over Reader to earn a championship that has been at least one year in the waiting.
184: No. 5 Joe LeBlanc (Wyoming) over No. 7 Chris Perry (Oklahoma State)
Here's how unpredictable and wide open this weight is -- the guidance of the office secretary that picks based on names and uniform colors carries just as much weight as that of the many respected wrestling pundits that will provide an opinion on this weight class. The two most talented wrestlers in this weight are nowhere near full health -- 2009 All-American Quentin Wright (Penn State) and returning national runner-up Kirk Smith (Boise State). Even being nowhere near 100 percent, Smith has a golden opportunity given that he is the lone All-American in his half of the draw. However, my pick in that half is for the redshirt freshman Perry to go on a magical run to help the Cowboys in the wide open team race. Looking for a champion, my pick is two-time All-American LeBlanc, whom I like to clear the somewhat tougher top half of the draw.
197: No. 4 Dustin Kilgore (Kent State) over No. 2 Clayton Foster (Oklahoma State)
Like the prior weight, this one is also wide open. The top half of the draw features three returning All-Americans, including the highest returning placer in this weight class -- Cam Simaz (Cornell), who placed third at this weight class last year. Simaz is looking at a quarterfinal against fellow All-American Sonny Yohn (Minnesota), before a semifinal date against yet another All-American in Kilgore. The Simaz vs. Kilgore match should be one of the many very entertaining matches of the tournament, and one that is friendly for a television audience. The lower half of the draw is dominated by a pair of undefeated wrestlers that took sixth last year at nationals -- Foster and Trevor Brandvold (Wisconsin). Foster, like Simaz in this weight, is a high profile figure that plays a key role in the team race.
285: No. 5 Dom Bradley (Missouri) over No. 2 Jarod Trice (Central Michigan)
Unfortunately after the last couple years with heavyweight being dominated by more mobile wrestlers that open up matches, the top names this year are what this weight class is more known for -- low scoring matches that are very close to the vest. Therefore, that makes it a prognostication nightmare because matches can be decided by so precious little.
Top Five Teams:
1. Penn State
2. Cornell
3. Oklahoma State
4. Iowa
5. Minnesota
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