One might ask why this is occurring and what the significance of this massive event is.
However, the informed wrestling fan will recognize that the first paragraph in this article describes the ASICS/Vaughan Junior & Cadet Nationals. The event is held every summer in late July, and is the biggest wrestling tournament in the world with respect to participation. In addition, it is also the most significant national showcase for high-school aged wrestlers in the United States.
Although the contested styles at the tournament are not folkstyle -- that which is wrestled at the high school and college levels -- the event attracts significant interest from the wrestling community at large. College coaches come in droves and are attracted by the quantity of top-notch high school wrestling talent that competes in this event. And that is the key phrase, the wrestlers compete.
In the vertical pairing format, wrestlers are split into two pools. Each pool is wrestled as a hybrid round-robin/double-elimination tournament. To make it simple, the last four wrestlers left in each pool that have yet to lose two times earn All-American honors. As a result, in most weight classes, it will take at least five wins -- and possibly even more -- to become an All-American. Keep in mind that matches in this event tend to involve elite wrestlers going against one another.
The remainder of this article will seek to explore three separate, yet important, questions. First, how strong is the correlation between performance at the NCAA Division I level (i.e. earning All-American honors) and that in Fargo. The second is the correlation between performance in Fargo and at the NCAA Division I level. The third is the question of if the level/quality of competition in Fargo has trended slightly downward in recent years.
In order to explore the above questions, this article is going to break things down from two angles. The first way is to evaluate how many of the NCAA Division I All-Americans in recent years earned All-American honors in Fargo (either as a cadet or junior, in Greco-Roman or freestyle). The second is to evaluate how many of the All-Americans at the Junior/Cadet Nationals also were NCAA Division I All-Americans.
Total NCAA All-Americans that also placed in Fargo
Over the last five NCAA Division I Championships, an average of between five and six out of every eight All-Americans (top 8 wrestlers in each of ten weight classes earn such honors) also earned such honors at the Junior & Cadet Nationals while in high school. Though statistics are not included in this article, it seems highly likely that a number of wrestlers that competed but failed to place at the NCAA tournament earned All-American honors in Fargo. In addition, there are those that did not place during their trips to Fargo but did earn NCAA Division I All-American honors.
As the above table indicates, the number of NCAA All-Americans that were also Fargo All-Americans has dropped by about 10 percent in the last two years. There has been discussion about the slight downward trend in terms of high-end wrestlers that choose to compete at the Junio & Cadet Nationals -- especially at the junior level.
Even if this is the case, the Junior & Cadet Nationals remain a platform for wrestlers to reveal their true character and ability level, and for collegiate coaches to discover the future stars of college wrestling.
Number of Fargo All-Americans that placed in each NCAA Division I weight class
These future stars of college wrestling found in Fargo are much more likely to be lowerweights than either middleweights or upperweights. In the last five NCAA Division I tournaments -- 33 of the 40 All-Americans at both 125 and 133 pounds also earned such honors in Fargo, which is five more than for any other weight class.
Each of the middleweight classes (141-174) had between 25 and 28 of the All-Americans during the 2006 through 2010 tournaments also earn such honors in Fargo during their high school years. That is an average of between 5.0 and 5.6 out of 8 possible each year.
On the other hand, success in Fargo is not as predictive for All-American honors among Division I upperweights. Less than 25 of the 40 All-Americans for the five year period between 2006 and 2010 in the 184 and 285 pound weight classes also had been All-Americans in Fargo, while only 26 at 197 pounds were placers in Fargo.
Number of Junior National freestyle All-Americans that became NCAA Division I All-Americans
Starting with 2002, the Junior & Cadet Nationals adopted the scholastic weight classes as the bass for most of their weight classes. There are 15 weight classes at the junior level starting with 98 and 105 pounds, while the cadet level has 17 weight classes starting with 84, 91, and 98 pounds. Prior to 2002, there were less weight classes, and they followed the pattern of the prevailing international weight classes.
With so many weight classes to observe, the question becomes which ones are the most competitive -- the deepest with quality and future college stars. The data seems to show that the meat of the Junior National competition starts in the 119-pound weight class and goes through 189 pounds. This also aligns with the logical intuition that wrestlers in these classes are likely to be able to be effective competitors in nine of the ten collegiate weight classes.
On the other hand, the 98 and 105-pound weight classes (also 112 pounds to a lesser extent) tend to be low in participants; and there seem to be the question of if these wrestlers will ever grow into effective competitors at 125.
The 215 and 285-pound weight classes are on the similar but opposite side of the "bell curve." Those at 215 pounds face the choice of making what could be a tough weight drop and also stylistic transition to 197 pounds, or moving in the other direction up to competing at 285 pounds, while the 285-pound wrestlers only fit into one collegiate weight class.
Number of Cadet National freestyle All-Americans that became NCAA Division I All-Americans
Analysis of the cadet level competition shows similar patterns to the junior level, though these seem to be more participant driven. The growth spurts and patterns of wrestlers going from the cadet level to the time they start -- and subsequently complete -- their college careers is much less predictable.
Only three years of data is shown at the cadet level for two reasons -- first is to remain within the period of 17 weight classes at the cadet level, the second is that the pool of wrestlers competing as cadets in 2004 has a pretty strong correlation to those competing as juniors in 2006.
The general pattern at the cadet level is that performance in the opening two and closing three weights carries less connection than that in the remaining weight classes. It is my opinion that much of this is due to the participation numbers in those outer-extreme weight classes being less than those in other weights. Although sample size may be a significant constraint to making legitimate conclusions -- the limited data here shows a "double core" of 98-125 and 145-171 in terms of the stronger weight classes.
Number of Junior National Greco-Roman All-Americans that became NCAA Division I All-Americans
Most of the discussion in this country about international style wrestling is focused on freestyle. Two reasons come immediately to mind why that is the case. A first is an opinion that freestyle wrestling is much more in line with the scholastic folkstyle than is Greco-Roman. A second is that the majority of our star collegiate wrestlers choose to compete in freestyle at the senior level as opposed to Greco-Roman.
However, there has been some momentum for Greco-Roman in recent years as the United States national program has improved by leaps and bounds, including winning the team points title at the 2007 World Championships. In addition, the program at the USOEC on the campus of Northern Michigan has enabled more wrestlers to start fine-turning their Greco-Roman skills right out of high school, and fully commit to that style of wrestling.
Also keep in mind that certain aspects of Greco -- both techniques and tactics -- make for a more versatile and better scholastic wrestler. However, for this article, the discussion of Greco-Roman focuses on how Junior National All-Americans in this style end up performing at the NCAA Division I level of competition.
In comparison to freestyle, it would seem that Greco-Roman performance is significantly less correlated to collegiate performance. Two possible root causes for this are: (1) the skills, techniques, and tactics necessary for Greco-Roman success do not translate as well to the collegiate style as do those that determine freestyle success (2) the participation numbers in Greco-Roman are less than those in freestyle, especially among the perceived higher ranked high school wrestlers. It could be some combination thereof as well.
One closing note is a cautionary tale about the comparisons of NCAA Division I All-Americans from the different years in Fargo. Keep in mind that for the 2006 Junior Nationals, many of those competing wrestlers still have collegiate eligibility left. Some may still earn All-American status for the first time. The high school senior class of that year has completed four years of college, which means their eligibility is either exhausted or they have a redshirt senior year left. Wrestlers that graduated high school in later years fit into the picture accordingly.
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