After passing the first obstacle in St. Petersburg, Russia, Olympic wrestling has little more than three months until the full meeting of the IOC Congress in Buenos Aires. What happens from now until then will help decide the future of the sport, and here's some background on each bid, their strengths and weaknesses and what you can expect to see from them in the coming months.
Baseball/Softball
Not mentioned among the favorites heading into the vote in St. Petersburg, their bid was buoyed by the interest of IOC executive board members Willi Kaltschmitt Lujan of Guatemala and Ching-Kuo Wu of Taiwan. Both are huge supporters of the sport and only needed a few runoff votes in the eighth round of the second ballot to ensure that they rose above the muck to find themselves shortlisted. It was a coup for the sport that was originally only dropped by a single vote in 2005. At the time the sports were the first to be dropped since polo got the axe in 1938.
Baseball is a very long shot to be reinstated, but it does have powerful support on the executive committee and among the IOC delegation from Japan, Singapore, Central America and South America.
Weaknesses: The largest baseball organization in the world, Major League Baseball, has so far been tepid in their support of the sport's Olympic bid. They have the World Baseball Classic to consider and given their existing contracts with sponsors, it would be economically foolish of them to full on support the competition, thereby weakening their own product. The MLB was all but forced to send a letter to the IOC executive board that declared their professional players would "find a way" to be available for competition. However, when looking at the MLB's talent pool there isn't a wide distribution of talent, and does seeing one or two stars bat every three innings make for compelling television? Also, baseball is expensive and time consuming.
Strengths: Many. The governing body is well organized and has deep pockets. It's likely that they will try to outspend their competitors in media ads targeted at IOC voters. The sport also has gender equality, reduced costs and nostalgia working on its side.
Overall: Baseball/softball is the sleeping giant of the shortlisted group and one that could cause massive upheaval in the voting process. It's vital to remember that Tokyo, where baseball is huge, will be up for the 2020 host city along with Istanbul and Madrid. The Japanese contingent will be trading baseball votes for city votes, and asking others to do the same. The politics of it all is a dangerous calculus to try and guess, but adding baseball and Japan into the same mix will impact the process.
Squash
The longtime leader in the bidding process, squash has been most perturbed by the IOC's decision to drop wrestling. Before wrestling was cut, squash was essentially a shoe-in for the 2020 Games due to its diversity of athletes and wild popularity among the executive board. It was assumed in January that by now squash would simply be counting the days to final approval. This setback is testing the sport's resolve, as this is their third attempt at inclusion in the Games.
Weaknesses: Though popular among the executive board and members of the IOC, squash is having a difficult time gaining traction with the international media. It's possible that the IOC doesn't care about press, but why then would they have added wresting back into the mix so soon after removal? Also, the sport has been denied twice before, is seen as egalitarian and has no existing professional league that has proven to be economically viable. The IOC has little incentive to add squash, if in doing so they irritate hundreds of millions of wrestlers and nostalgic ball players.
Strengths: Squash has the money and organizational composure to continue their Olympic fight, but their biggest asset is experience. They understand exactly how the process works, and the power of PR. When wrestling announced they they'd be hosting an American vs. Iranian dual meet, squash countered with a story about teaching 400 women how to coach the sport to the underprivileged in Tehran. Equally important is the connection many on the committee have to the sport. Many played in college, and still play daily. It's part of their life and that might give the sport an emotional edge they need to progress past the next round. The sport also changed to rally scoring in tie matches, which reportedly builds excitement around the game.
Finally, unlike baseball and wrestling, the IOC hasn't already acted to eliminate these sports, meaning it won't have to overcome any bureaucratic face-saving some on the IOC might feel is necessary after the humiliation of cutting popular sports.
Overall: The strongest competitor to wrestling, squash has an excellent chance of making it into the 2020 Olympics. They'll be running massive media campaigns both online and in print. Expect to see the glass cube on display at monuments around the world, and their two impossibly attractive spokespersons to be trotted out in front of the cameras in countries with vulnerable IOC voters. They will also likely go under a rebranding campaign to ensure they aren't seen as elitist.
Wrestling
The last addition to the 2020 candidacy, wrestling has become a darling of the media over the past 106 days. The IOC executive board has long been derided for being out of touch with the wants of the public and the needs of those who watch the Olympics, and the decision to cut wrestling only verified the media's suspicion that politics, more than fair play and equal opportunity, determined the outcome of many important decisions.
Wrestling has faced many challenges, including early anger by fans at its governing body for a lack of communication the past several years, and the reemergence of their failed president Raphaël Martinetti. However, the sport made several significant improvements to its governance, electing Nenad Lalovic of Serbia to their presidency and changing the rules to something much more understandable to casual fans.
Even though it faced adversity and some challenges to its future wrestling passed on the first ballot by a simple 8-6 majority. A very powerful message to the full body of the IOC and FILA.
Weaknesses: Despite some big money donors in America and Russia, wrestling is not necessarily as well funded as their competitors. The spot has also been running their campaign for the shortest amount of time and that lack of time means less lobbying. Fewer contacts and big ideas could hurt the sport's chances to make a significant impact on the voting process, especially since there are no former wrestlers among the entire IOC Congress. Wrestling is also outside of gender equality with 12 spots for men and only 6 for women. There is also some frustration among IOC members about uniforms, the viability of Greco-Roman and the marketing appeal of the sport.
More distressing is that with baseball's addition, Japan will likely be split or fully support the baseball bid along with Tokyo. Madrid also isn't playing for special wrestling venues and though they have a serious wrestling tradition, the sport isn't of high value to their administrative bodies.
Strengths: Wrestling has without question become the consensus choice among the media to be included back in the 2020 Games. Though in the coming weeks there will be arguments made for other sports, wrestling is uniquely positioned to appeal to the founding principles of athletic competition and the Olympic Games. The organizations running the process are well funded and will likely be receiving more in the weeks following the decision to shortlist the sport. The members responsible for running the ad campaigns will be rebranding their efforts and setting up outreach programs to voters who've so far not seen the sport, or understand it's local and global appeal.
Wrestling is the last added which could mean that it'll be last to fatigue the IOC voters. The arguments presented to the full congress will resonate with messaging they've heard in the media, and be difficult to strike down. The sport's image is as one that has been wronged by a political process.
Wrestling also has the assistance of the 2014 Games being held in Russia, who has already sank $5.1 billion into those Games and who has consistently supported the idea of wrestling being added back into the Games. Also, Thomas Bach (Germany), the favorite to take over as President of the Olympics, has shown support for the sport. The up-and-coming candidate Sergei Bubka of the Ukraine may also be a fan of wrestling though he's made no public comments.
Wrestling's biggest asset is the passion of its fan base. No other sport comes close, and in a race to make an impact the power of the motivated masses might mean more than money.
Overall: The IOC is bound by nothing and can make decisions however it sees fit. Right now the only things that matter are messaging in the media and influencing the 101 voting members of the IOC Congress. As a supporter of wrestling I see a bright future filled with media events that are unique and create an impact on voters.
Fans will need to stay vigilant and access the information they are given and also share it with members of their social media circles. Continued support of the sport and pushes for change will help the sport make its long and twisting journey to reinstatement.
Wrestling needs to close out this process as strong as it opened. No mistakes, no mental lapses, just a positive approach to the process that invites new ideas and room for growth.
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