Five NCAA Bracket Reactions

NCAA Brackets have been released! While it’s fun to have interactive online brackets, I still prefer to print mine out and go through them writing in my picks at each weight along with full consi’s. I usually have a bracket I fill out first, without reading much into them, then another set for when I’ve analyzed them more and these typically contain more upsets. As I was looking at seeds and filling out brackets, I had these five reactions. 1) You have to win your conference tournament! I’m sure, by now, you’ve paged through all ten brackets and have a list of seeds that don’t seem to make sense. That’s normal, I think most people do that. One trait that is probably common for the wrestlers you feel have been seeded higher than you’d expect, is that they won their conference tournament. For the most part, I like it and am fine with it playing such a large role in the seeding process. In 2022, we had two wrestlers forfeit in the Big Ten finals. This year we saw a pair of veteran heavyweights (Isaac Trumble/Yaraslau Slavikouski) forfeit out of their respective tournaments. Trumble appeared to be a lock for a top-five seed before his loss to Dayton Pitzer, followed by :01 second injury default and medical forfeit. Slavikouski hovered between seventh and 11th in the country for most of the year but forfeited out of the Big Ten tournament after an overtime loss to Josh Heindselman. Both were hit hard in the seeding process - Trumble is #7 and Slavikouski is #16. We obviously don’t want wrestlers exacerbating injuries or flat-out wrestling injured; that being said, for the product of wrestling, it’s not a good trend to have competitors not finishing these qualifying events. You survive and win, you get rewarded. If not, good luck! Now where this gets a little dicey is at weights like 157 lbs - where eight of the top-ten ranked wrestlers (heading into the postseason) hailed from the Big Ten. Stalwarts like Joey Blaze and Tommy Askey were passed by Rafael Hipolito and Vince Zerban - two champions from non-Big Ten conferences. Neither was ever ranked higher than Blaze/Askey. The Blaze’s and Askey’s of this world argue that “just winning your conference” is easier said than done when you're competing with the likes of Kasak, Taylor, Cannon, Miller, and Teemer. I would be in favor of revisiting some of the weight put on the conference tournaments. Especially after the Pac-12 moved down to four teams and the Ivy League split from the EIWA. 2) Seeding is a snapshot of the 2024-25 season After the brackets were released, I saw some discussion around Jacori Teemer’s #18 seed at the 157 lb weight class. I’ll admit, the initial shock of it opened my eyes. But when you think about it, the seeding committee does not look at Teemer as a returning NCAA finalist and a three-time All-American. They are looking at someone who is 8-4 on the year, seventh in the Big Ten, and who didn’t earn an allocation for the Big Ten. His best wins are over Tommy Askey and Caleb Fish; however, he has losses to Askey, Ethen Miller, Kasak, and one via injury default to Paniro Johnson. Teemer only has one other win over a 2025 qualifier (Chase Saldate). I didn’t expect an 18th seed for Teemer, but I can understand why it happened. He’s obviously been battling injuries all year, so if he’s healthy, this could set up a massive second-round match with #2 seed Meyer Shapiro. It would be the returning second and third-place finishers from the weight class in 2024. If healthy, the seed could end up disrupting the weight class, but we’ll see. 3) Cael Magic could get tested in the semifinals However the brackets shook out, Penn State was going to be a huge favorite. They still are. It would take an incredible collapse, combined with the tournament of a lifetime from a competitor, just to make things close. That being said, Penn State could have some massive semifinal challenges. The Nittany Lions record in such bouts has been absurd under Cael Sanderson. Since 2017, Penn State is 35-4 in the NCAA semifinals! Sanderson and staff obviously leave no stone unturned as they prep their wrestlers for the most important rounds of the season. So, can Penn State keep up this ridiculous rate of winning in the semifinals? Let’s look at some potential matchups for the Nittany Lions 125: #1 Luke Lilledahl vs #4 Vince Robinson/#5 Richie Figueroa 141: #2 Beau Bartlett vs. #3 Jesse Mendez/#6 Vance Vombaur 149: #3 Shayne Van Ness vs. #2 Ridge Lovett 174: #2 Levi Haines vs. #3 Dean Hamiti 197: #4 Josh Barr vs. #1 Jacob Cardenas 285: #3 Greg Kerkvliet vs. #2 Wyatt Hendrickson Obviously, there are a few where Penn State would be favored, but Mendez has multiple wins over Bartlett, Lovett has beaten Van Ness and Figueroa knows when to turn it on under the bright lights. 4) Craziness leads to fewer complaints (from me at least!) After watching the Big Ten finals on Saturday, I commented to my cohort Robbie Wendell at the ACC Championships, that some of these weights had so much chaos that you probably couldn’t complain, however the brackets shook out. And I still stand by that. At 133 lbs, the top two seeds were easy to guess. After that, who knew? I suspected Nasir Bailey would get the three (and he did). This weight has sure-fire top-ten-ranked wrestlers like Evan Frost and Tyler Knox who failed to qualify through their respective conference tournaments. Each dropped out of the top ten. Nic Bouzakis fell in the first round of the Big Ten Championships and wrestled back for third - beating Braeden Davis, Dylan Shawever, Zan Fugitt, and Jacob Van Dee in the process. All of this is to say, that if you want to question Zeth Romney or Dominick Serrano’s seeds (4 and 5), I’m not sure if you present clear-cut better options. I feel the same way about 125 and 141 lbs. Both Big Ten champions were rewarded with the top seed. There’s certainly a case to be made for both Lilledahl and Brock Hardy to be lower, but it’s certainly understandable. I don’t have gripes about these weight classes, because I’m not sure I could have made a better alternative. For that, I tip my hat to the committee. In years past, that hasn’t always been the case. Combine point #1 (winning your conference tournament) with some unpredictable results and you have Andrew Alirez as the #8 seed. It’s shocking initially, but he didn’t have a resume filled with great wins and lost in the semifinals of the Big 12 Championships. Knowing Alirez’s personality, I don’t think he cares much about the seed. Or if he does, he’ll wear it as a chip on his shoulder and try to make the rest of the bracket pay. 5) Late-Season Losses Lead to a Nasty Heavyweight Bracket Since we learned that Gable Steveson was returning, there was a clear hierarchy at this weight of Gable and everyone else. It seemed like it may not have the same sort of excitement once we saw that the current Gable was as good (or better) than the previous version. At the same time, returning champion Greg Kerkvliet and Wyatt Hendrickson have seemed to separate themselves from the rest of the field. As an aside, there were some talks that Owen Trephan’s perfect record and conference title may be enough to push him past Kerkvliet for the number three seed - that didn’t happen. After the big three at this weight, things could get pretty crazy. And early on in the tournament. What about these potential Round of 16 matches? #9 Cohlton Schultz/#8 Luke Luffman, #5 Ben Kueter/#12 Nick Feldman, #13 Seth Nevills/#4 Owen Trephan, #11 Jimmy Mullen/#6 Josh Heindselman, #7 Isaac Trumble/#10 Dayton Pitzer. Feldman and Schultz, in particular, are seeded lower than they’ve been ranked at any point, all season. There may not be intrigue about who wins the heavyweight bracket, but there will be plenty of fun matches all throughout this group.

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