The Big 12 Championships at the BOK Center in Tulsa, Oklahoma Last week, UCLA and USC announced they are heading to the Big Ten. This struck up a lot of conversation in the wrestling world about whether or not those schools would add wrestling but this week some more dominoes started to shake that could result in more shake-ups in the wrestling world. Dennis Dodd from CBS has reported that the Big 12 started talks with Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado, Oregon, and Washington to possibly join the conference.
With that, I thought I'd look at some hypothetical scenarios that could play out in all this in regard to wrestling.
Arizona State could join the Big 12
This one seems most likely. The perennial power of the conference and 21-time Pac 12 Champion Arizona State Sun Devils could move to the Big 12. Dodd's and others reporting indicates the four specific schools the Big 12 is most heavily targeting are Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah. Arizona State is the only school of those four with wrestling. This would be a massive blow to PAC 12 wrestling but a huge boost for the Big 12 which just brought back Missouri last season.
Big 12 and PAC 12 could merge
I should probably preface this entire article by saying no one really knows what's going to happen here.
Both conferences could stay the same or there could be massive changes. But one rumored possibility is some merger of both conferences. I personally don't think this is that likely, but if it did there would be a sudden super wrestling conference with Oregon State, Arizona State, Stanford, and potentially some affiliates merging with the Big 12.
If this did happen, and the powers that be put some energy into it, I think it could work as a wrestling conference. Geographically there are a lot of affiliate schools in each conference that could and should schedule each other anyway. And if schools like Arizona State and Oklahoma State get out to some of these schools from time to time, it would bolster their attendance and give them some much-needed publicity.
The PAC 12 could poach some Big 12 Wrestling Schools
It doesn't sound like there is any realistic chance that the PAC 12 could snatch up any of the core Big 12 schools. For example, Oklahoma State or Iowa State are not joining the PAC 12. There's just no added value for them to do that.
But there are reports of schools that the PAC 12 could grab to replace UCLA and others. One here mentions Boise State, San Diego State, and Fresno State. If the Big 12 did grab the four schools they're reportedly pursuing, the PAC 12 would need to replace them. And the PAC 12 could go after schools like Air Force and Wyoming to fill the gaps left by losing those other schools.
The PAC 12 could dissolve
A few months ago, we were talking about this potentially happening with the Big 12. Ultimately, they came together and saved it. That result from the Big 12 may have been really well-timed as the PAC 12 is now on their heels and the Big 12 has a chance to capitalize. But if they grab all six of the schools mentioned there are only four left. And there's naturally a possibility that they could all go somewhere else as well. If they do, that will almost certainly spell the end of the PAC 12.
At the end of the day, I think the PAC 12 will stay together in some capacity. Even if they just keep a handful of their core schools, the conference brand name does have some value and in a worse-case scenario they could pull in a bunch of schools from the Mountain West to keep going. It would just look very different. Even if they lose Arizona State,but can hang on to Oregon State and bring in Air Force and Wyoming, it could result in a still relatively stable wrestling conference.
Nothing Could Happen
Like I mentioned earlier, no one really knows what's going to happen here. And if everything stays as it currently is, wrestling won't be impacted at all. USC and UCLA don't have wrestling, so their move doesn't change anything. And if all other schools stay put, then literally nothing will change in the wrestling world.
But given all the recent changes in college sports, I would say this might be the least likely scenario.
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