Bruce Baumgartner never won state in New Jersey.
John Smith never placed higher than fourth at Junior Nationals and failed to place at NCAA's his freshman year.
Lee Kemp didn't even begin wrestling until he was a sophomore in high school, when he compiled a record slightly above .500.
Mark Schultz had a losing record his junior year in high school.
Nonetheless, it is perhaps second nature for wrestling fans to look for the young wrestler whose sheer dominance indicates that they may be the next transcendent star in our sport. This writer will not even attempt to predict who the next Gable, Smith, or Sanderson (insert your pick for greatest American wrestler of all-time here) will be. However, the following are wrestlers who are likely to at least be the next Dustin Schlatter, Brent Metcalf, or Troy Nickerson -- stars who transcend the sport at the high school level (Note: the wrestlers selected will not necessarily be those at the top of the Rev Power Rakings -- also compiled by this writer -- because those ranking focus on current skill level rather than long-term potential).
Not since the aforementioned Dustin Schlatter has a wrestler entered Ohio with so much acclaim as the young David Taylor. Wrestling for St. Paris Graham (where Schlatter began his career, ironically). The result of nearly every Taylor match for the last three years has been Taylor winning by a technical fall. What separates Taylor from other great young wrestlers is that he is equally proficient on the mat as on his feet. A relentless competitor, he quickly transitions from a takedown to a tilt, arm bar, or other pinning combination, allowing him to pile up points in large quantities.
Consider: In three years of competition at the Ohio Junior High State Tournament, Taylor never went the distance -- and nearly all of his wins (including the finals each year) were by technical fall, in 4 minute 30 second matches. At first glance, one might be inclined to be relatively unimpressed by victories at a Junior High State Tournament. However, the Ohio Junior High State Tournament is actually much tougher, relatively speaking, than the Ohio High School State Tournament, in that it is one division. It is truly a "state tournament" in that it truly contains all of the best competitors in the state. There are, in fact, countless examples of wrestlers placing higher in the Ohio State High School Tournament as freshmen than they had the year prior in the Ohio Junior High State Tournament.
Taylor next dominated all comers at FILA Cadets and in Fargo at Cadet Nationals. Shockingly, Taylor was pinned once in Greco-Roman in his pool -- and also in the finals. However, Taylor's stock should not go down when you consider that Greco-Roman is a very different style -- and not Taylor's specialty by any means -- and in both situations he was approaching a tech fall in the first period when he simply got caught in headlocks. In freestyle, Taylor set things right by pinning or tech falling all opponents, including highly regarded BJ Futrell of Illinois in the finals. Taylor was also unscored upon in the freestyle competition. At FILA's in April, Taylor tech falled all but one opponent in every single period (the international system of a six-point lead being a "tech" for that period was used). You may be sensing a pattern here.
Anthony Valles, who will be wrestling for Blair Academy this winter, dominated the field at Cadet Nationals at 98 lbs (photo by Wyatt Schultz).If Taylor is the most anticipated freshman in Ohio since Schlatter, then Collin Palmer would have to be a very close second. The younger brother of three-time state champion and Junior Nationals third-place finisher, Lance Palmer. The reports for years have been that the younger Palmer brother was even better. It has become almost a cliché to hear a great wrestler's younger brother is even better than he is -- but in this case, it is apparently true. The younger Palmer's record of winning youth national titles is unmatched. Over the last three years, Palmer's only loss appears to be to Riley Adamson (the No. 4 rated freshman, who is the only wrestler who may have won more national titles than Palmer and also was FILA Cadet Nationals champion this past spring) at Tulsa Nationals in 2004. Palmer has since avenged that loss with two victories over Adamson.
Palmer joined Taylor as a three-time junior high state champion. Palmer does not wrestle much freestyle and chose not to go to Cadet Nationals this past spring. However, Palmer has previously matched up against most of the high place finishers -- and beaten them all, mostly by large margins. He scored a 12-4 victory over Ben Sergent in the Ohio Junior High State Tournament in the spring of 2004. Sergent finished second at 98 lbs. Palmer owns wins over both finalists at 112 lbs, Graff and Moore. He also owns several wins over Jordan Oliver of Easton, Pennsylvania (also featured in this article), who will begin this season regarded by most as the No. 1 103 in the nation.
Palmer will apparently be competing at 112 lbs for the storied Lakewood St. Ed's squad this season. This writer will make the prediction that Palmer wins both the Ironman and Beast of the East, provided that Juniors Nationals runner-up Aaron Hart of St. Paris Graham competes at 119 lbs -- rather than 112. If Hart should compete at 112, this writer views Palmer's match-up against Hart as a tossup, despite the fact that Hart is a senior and Palmer is a freshman. He is that good. This match-up would also be somewhat ironic in that Hart is a former rival of Palmer's older brother. Palmer could also match-up with highly regarded California state champion Trevor Machado and California state runner-up Filip Novachov at the Ironman.
Eighth graders placing at Cadet Nationals above 119 lbs is exceedingly rare. In addition to the difference in physical maturity -- having 1-2 years of high school experience is obviously a huge advantage in Fargo. If you look at the names of those who have placed in Fargo above 119 lbs before beginning high school, they are consistently names like Brent Metcalf, Matthew Coughlin, David Craig, and Jason Welch. However, none of these competitors placed higher than the only eighth grader to accomplish that feat in 2005, Alec Ortiz of Oregon, who finished fourth. Ortiz's only losses were to one of the nation's top juniors, Luke Ashmore, and to Andrew Howe of Indiana (who finished 49-1 as a freshman at 130 with his only loss to three-time state champion Reece Humphrey). Ortiz pinned or tech falled the rest of his opponents. Even more impressively, Ortiz actually beat Luke Ashmore on his way to a second-place finish at FILA Cadet Nationals. The only wrestler who defeated Ortiz, Matt Ballweg, is a senior in high school this year. Ortiz also owns a win over highly regarded Cadet Nationals runner-up Johnny Koepp of Texas at the 2004 Tulsa Nationals. While Ortiz is ranked No. 3 in the Rev Power Rankings, a strong case could be made for him being No. 1, in the sense that while there is no freshman at Taylor and Palmer's weights who would stand much of a chance of beating them, this writer believes there is no other freshman middleweight who would be remotely competitive with Ortiz at this point. Unfortunately, Ortiz will be competing at none of the major folkstyle tournaments so we will not see him in action against national competition again until the freestyle season.
The underclassman with the most upside potential at this point may be Jason Welch of California. A takedown artist, this sophomore piles up points in bunches. Moreover, this writer likes his approach of never shying away from a challenge. Welch bypassed what would have been an almost guaranteed Cadet Nationals title (with apologies to the outstanding trio of Civan, Stalcup, and Medina) to compete at the Junior Nationals in freestyle. By doing so, he thrust himself into arguably the toughest weight in the competition, a weight class laden with junior and senior stars. Entering the tournament -- most applauded the daring of this 15-year-old freshman, but gave him little chance of placing. Simply put, freshmen generally cannot compete with top upperclassmen in the middle weight classes. Welch proved everyone wrong, coming away with a fifth-place finish. Along the way he dominated highly regarded Wesley English and Sean Nemec.
Ironically, Welch was defeated by another freshman in his own state, Louis Bland, in 2005. Welch moved up a weight from his usual 145 lb class to challenge Bland, who would go on to be the state champion at 152. Welch finished second to the highly regarded Luis Gonzales in the treacherous California State Tournament in 2005. Should Welch and Bland be in the same weight class this season, look for Welch to reverse the result of the previous year.
Alex Meade, who moved from Delaware to Virginia to wrestle for Christiansburg, claimed a Cadet Nationals title over the summer (photo by Wyatt Schultz).Perhaps the diamond in the rough of this year's sophomore class is Michael Mangrum of Washington. Certainly the least polished wrestler on this list, Mangrum epitomizes the word "explosive." After finishing third as an eighth grader at Cadet Nationals, Mangrum dominated both styles of Cadet Nationals this past summer with a very aggressive, powerful style. Mangrum hit the most impressive move of the finals when he lifted Utah state champion Jason Chamberlain completely into the air from a fireman's carry -- it was one of those things you had to see to believe. That finals match in freestyle was not nearly as close as the 7-3 score might indicate -- as Mangrum gave up two meaningless points near the end. In the Greco-Roman tournament, Mangrum did not yield a point until the finals- when he scored an 11-1 technical fall.
Michael Mangrum of Washington dominated both styles of Cadet Nationals this past summer (photo by Wyatt Schultz).Thomas took some lumps as a freshman -- as a freshman upper-weight wrestling at Ironman, Beast of the East, and Powerade might be expected to do, but came on enough by the end of the season to win the state title at 160 lbs. Obviously, freshman state champions at such a high weight class are exceedingly rare.
Mario Mason of New Jersey, a sophomore, scored a huge win at the NHSCA Final Four Duals over senior Jordan Frishkorn of Virginia (photo by Wyatt Schultz).Predictions of future greatness lack reliability -- and many of America's great wrestlers had surprisingly humble high school careers. However, this writer will pretty much guarantee that the aforementioned young wrestlers will be heard from a lot in the near future. Who the next Dustin Schlatter, Brent Metcalf, or Troy Nickerson is remains to be seen -- but count on them being from this list!
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