2023-24 Big 12 Predictions

The 2023-24 season is getting ready to kick off, and it’s time to make some predictions as to what it may look like for the Big 12. There are a lot of ways to go about this, so I’m going to focus on the expected tournament champs, some sleepers, and make some bold storyline predictions to keep an eye out for throughout this year! Big 12 Champs (Tournament): #2 Missouri Sleeper: #14 Oklahoma After winning the Big 12 for the first time in 2012, the Tigers have won 12 conference championships in a row. That includes nine MAC titles and the past two Big 12 tournaments since rejoining the conference in 2022. Missouri qualified all ten of their wrestlers last year, with eight of them finishing in the top four at Big 12’s. They return five All-Americans, five Big 12 finalists, and the most 2023 NCAA team points of other conference teams with 61. Under the last coaching staff, the Sooners typical seasons were made of inconsistent dual results before an unexpectedly strong conference finish. Each of the past three seasons, OU has had a losing conference dual record but managed to finish in the top four tournament teams (4th - 2023, 2nd - 2022, T-1st - 2021). With a new coaching staff and some high-profile transfers, the Sooners could once again get hot in the postseason for a great finish. Big 12 Champs (Dual): #11 Iowa State Sleeper: #14 South Dakota State The Big 12 doesn’t officially announce a dual champion, but we’re going to at InterMat! Despite winning the past two conference tournaments, Missouri has suffered at least one conference dual loss each season. Those losses include Iowa State, South Dakota State, and Oklahoma State. This year the Tigers have all three of those teams on the schedule once again, and two of them are on the road. They could run the table, but history shows that it’s certainly not a guarantee. The past two seasons Iowa State has gone 31-4 in duals, while Oklahoma State has gone 27-7. I chose Iowa State over Oklahoma State because if it comes down to it, I think Iowa State may win the head-to-head dual scheduled for January 27th. A big part of that is because the day before that the Cowboys will be facing a very tough Northern Iowa team. Iowa State has the history and team to get the win, and I think they will take the unofficial dual title in 2024. Last year, South Dakota State finished 6-2 in conference duals with losses to OK State and OU. Led by returning NCAA finalist Tanner Sloan, the team has veteran talent in Tanner Cook, Cade DeVos, and Clay Carlson. They’re also returning an NCAA bloodround wrestler in Cael Swensen and bringing in blue chip redshirt freshmen Bennett Berge and Luke Rasmussen. If this team gets rolling in a dual, they can upset any of the top teams. 2024 Big 12 Most Outstanding Wrestler: #1 Keegan O’Toole - 165lbs (Missouri) Everyone knows about the rivalry between two-time champ Keegan O’Toole and last year’s 165lb Big 12 Champ David Carr. Last year, the two faced three times, with Carr winning in the dual and Big 12 finals. O’Toole reversed that in the NCAA finals; however, with an 8-2 decision. This offseason Carr decided to forgo competing in freestyle to focus on folkstyle for his senior season. O’Toole competed at the US Open, placing 3rd to make the National Team and is set to compete at U23 World’s later this month. Both wrestlers have had one-sided scores against the other so I see it as somewhat of a toss-up, but am taking O’Toole to win for his second Big 12 title. Biggest Breakout: #28 Eli Griffin - 125lbs (California Baptist) California Baptist is a school on the rise, and Eli Griffin seems poised to lead them into the national scene in their second year at Division I. Last season Griffin was one of the most intriguing wrestlers coming into the Big 12 tournament. He had a 6-5 record that included major decision wins over Jore Volk and Nico Provo, plus a decision win over Kysen Terukina. Unfortunately, the young Lancer wasn’t able to get cleared from a broken fibula earlier in the season. If he can stay healthy and build off last year’s results, he could enter Big 12 Champ conversations. Big 12 Freshman of the Year: Brayden Thompson -174lbs (Oklahoma State) A top-five recruit for 2023, there appears to be an opportunity for Thompson to get in the lineup immediately with two-time All-American Dustin Plott moving up. Thompson’s high school resume is lengthy and includes titles at Powerade, Ironman, Illinois State, and the U20 Trials. 174lbs in the Big 12 is tough, but there are only two wrestlers in the top 20 currently. Thompson could come in and immediately make an impact for the Cowboys. Big 12 Coach of the Year: Roger Kish - OU After a tumultuous search, OU found their future head coach in Roger Kish. While at North Dakota State he coached them to finish fifth at Big 12’s in 2023 and finished with two All-Americans. He came to an already solid roster that finished fourth last year, but brought in some solid transfers as well. Last year's qualifiers Mosha Schwartz, Jared Hill, Gerrit Nijenhuis, Tate Picklo, and Josh Heindselman are back this year. The team also has 2022 Big 12 finalist Willie McDougald and two-time All-American Stephen Buchanan coming off redshirt. Add in transfers Antonio Lorenzo, Jace Koelzer, Guiseppe Hoose, and Deanthony Parker and the Sooners seem primed for a big year in Kish’s first year. 3 BOLD PREDICTIONS These are just some big predictions I’m going to throw out before the season begins. Keep an eye out for some of these throughout the year! 1. Two Big 12 teams get NCAA trophies The last time the Big 12 had two trophy teams was in 2009, with Iowa State and Nebraska. Currently, Missouri is projected to get their first team trophy since finishing fourth in 2015. The Tigers finished fifth last year, just six points behind Ohio State. Then I think either Iowa State or Oklahoma State follows up for a banner Big 12 year. Oklahoma State won a trophy in 2021 with a third-place finish, but is coming off its worst NCAA finish ever at 18th place. The team could feature up to six new starters, and brought in Coleman Scott as an assistant coach this offseason. If the Cowboys can stay healthy, don’t be shocked to see them back on the podium. Iowa State’s last trophy came in 2010 with Kevin Jackson as head coach. Kevin Dresser has built this team every year since coming in, and the team has the potential for a top-four finish. It would take some big moves, but these teams have the potential. 2. The Big 12 gets 4 National Champs If I were setting betting lines, I think the over/under for Big 12 National Champs would be 2.5. Parker Keckeisen and Keegan O’Toole are currently ranked #1, then Daton Fix, David Carr, Stephen Buchanan, and Wyatt Hendrickson are ranked #2. If Keckeisen and the winner of O’Toole/Carr get titles, it would take two upsets to get to four. The Big 12 last had four champs in 2006. 3. Oklahoma State and Oklahoma split Bedlam matches December 10th and February 18th, those are the two dates for this year’s Bedlam matches. One of college sports best rivalries happens twice a year, with the Cowboys winning the past 15. The last Sooners win came in 2014, although they’ve come close before. I think new Head Coach Roger Kish will get one this year. The future of the dual is in question with OU leaving the Big 12, so make sure to enjoy it this year.

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