The ACC Final Dual Weekend Preview

We’ve got a huge weekend on tap to finish out the regular season in the ACC. The ACC Dual Championship is on the line and could shake out a few different ways. Right now, the Wolfpack controls their own destiny; as the only undefeated team in the conference, if they beat the Hokies, the dual title goes back to Raleigh. BUT…like I said after week one of ACC duals, it’s going to be a wild year and there is a very real chance that no team makes it through unscathed. Currently, two other teams have one loss in conference - Virginia Tech lost to North Carolina, and UNC lost to NC State. Based on the system the ACC uses, the dual champion is determined only by the final record in the conference, not head-to-head matches. So there is a possibility that the dual title will be shared by two or three teams. 

Let’s look at the scenarios:

1. NC State beats Virginia Tech. The Wolfpack are the outright dual champs. The result of UNC and Stanford doesn’t matter.
2. Virginia Tech beats NC State and Stanford beats UNC. The Hokies and the Wolfpack share the dual title. 
3. VT wins and UNC beats Stanford - it is a three-way tie for the dual title with UNC, VT, and NCST all ending with a 5-1 record in conference. 

#6 NC State at #9 Virginia Tech

125 - #3 Vincent Robinson v #5 Eddie Ventresca

133 - #14 Kai Orine v #13 Connor McGonagle

141 - Tyler Tracy/Troy Hohman v #10 Sam Latona

149 - #22 Koy Buesgens v #1 Caleb Henson

157 - #15 Ed Scott v #12 Rafael Hipolito

165 - #28 Derek Fields v Mac Church

174 - #22 Matty Singleton v #20 Lennox Wolak

184 - #14 Dylan Fishback v #20 TJ Stewart

197 - #31 Christian Knop v #16 Andy Smith

285 - #4 Isaac Trumble v #13 Jimmy Mullen

This dual has been the highlight of the conference for the past decade and Friday’s edition should be no different. In their past 10 head-to-head meetings, they have an even 5-5 split with most duals being decided by 5 points or fewer. The past five duals have been won by the home team, with the last road upset coming in 2019 with the Wolfpack winning the dual title in Blacksburg, 17-16. Based on InterMat rankings, the Hokies are favored in 6 matches to 4 for the Wolfpack. I can’t even point to a single match that I’m most looking forward to, there are incredible matchups up and down the lineup. I fully expect the atmosphere in Cassell to be rowdy tonight. The way I see it, there are five matches that lean more heavily on paper toward one team or the other--141, 149, and 197 for the Hokies and 165 and 285 for the Wolfpack--these can all very much go either direction, but I would call that an upset if it happens. These are the weights where each team will be hunting for critical bonus points. The remaining weights - 125, 133, 157, 174, and 184 - are very much toss-up matches. Let’s look at these toss-ups:

125 

We have a top-5 battle and these two have never met. Robinson is 18-1 on the year with his lone loss a medical forfeit at the CKLV. He has a big win over #4 Troy Spratley, who has a win over Ventresca; he has, however, never faced an All-American. The Hokie is a 2023 All-American and comes in at 15-3 with losses to Spratley, #1 Matt Ramos, and a sudden victory loss to #11 Spencer Moore. Expect a wide-open match here. Both have an impressive attack rate and put a lot of points on the board. 

133

This will be an important bout. Orine started the season at 141 and dropped back to 133 and he is still adjusting to the weight. He is 11-5 overall, but 3-3 at 133. It has been an adjustment dropping back down, but he has looked better physically every time he’s gone out. McGonagle came into the season with big expectations, but has been limited with injuries. He is 8-1 overall with his lone loss to #19 Tyler Wells and has a big win over #7 Tyler Knox in sudden victory. This match should be pretty wide-open and physical. 

157

Ok, I lied. This is the match I’m looking forward to the most. This match could be absolutely bonkers. Both of these guys are capable of some insane technique and big moves and they both have a very unique feel - but in different ways. Scott took out Hipolito in the dual last season 12-7 but Hipolito has made huge jumps in the past year. Scott is a former All-American and two-time bloodround finisher. He comes in at 11-4 on the year with only one questionable loss early in the season. Hipolito is in his first year starting and has a 12-3 with one loss from a medical forfeit and the other two in sudden victory in low-scoring bouts. 

174

Lennox Wolak entered the season as a returning All-American at his new home in Blacksburg and a preseason top-5 ranking. He struggled early in the year after an injury and had a disastrous Southern Scuffle that dropped him much lower in the rankings. He has looked much better of late, but has been hard to predict this year. Matty Singleton has been on the edge of breaking through all season and is still looking for a signature win. He is 12-7 on the year, but really doesn’t have any bad losses, they are all to opponents ranked above him. This is an odd match stylistically and could be a 1-0 SV match or a 20-second pin in either direction. Should be a fun one. 

184

In the ongoing battles between Virginia Tech and NC State, we have seen some incredible individual rivalries. I think this matchup will go down as another in the long-running series; both are sophomores and are likely to stay at the same weight moving forward. Stewart holds a 2-0 advantage over Fishback, beating him 7-2 in the dual and 8-5 at the ACC Championships last year. Stewart ended the year on the podium with a 7th place finish while Fishback fell in the bloodround. It’s safe to say they are pretty evenly matched. Fishback has had a pretty good year, he is 10-5 with all of his losses coming to top-15 opponents; he has started to look more aggressive offensively lately, which could be helpful or harmful against Stewart. TJ had a very rough start to the year. He was coming off a knee injury and was very tentative early in the year. As he feels more confident, his offense has picked up and he has looked more like the All-American we saw last year. He is 9-7 overall and 4-1 in conference, his lone loss was a pin to Gavin Kane, when he went for a throw that didn’t quite go as planned. I expect a battle here and the dual could very well hinge on this match. 

#15 North Carolina at #18 Stanford

125 #11 Spencer Moore v FFT

133 #11 Ethan Oakley v #7 Tyler Knox

141 #22 Jayden Scott v #21 Jason Miranda

149 #5 Lachlan McNeil v #15 Jaden Abas

157 #23 Sonny Santiago v #28 Grigor Cholakyan

165 Charlie Darracott v #13 Hunter Garvin

174 #18 Josh Ogunsanya v #4 Lorenzo Norman

184 #19 Gavin Kane v Tye Montiero/Cole Han-Lindemyer

197 Cade Lautt v #15 Nick Stemmet

285 Nolan Neves v #29 Peter Ming

Coming into the season we knew that the Tar Heels would have some individual weapons but it didn’t seem like they would have the full lineup strength to contend for the dual title. They proved that wrong in the opening week with an upset win over Virginia Tech. Stanford had a similar vibe, especially giving up a forfeit at 125 every week, but they have shown to be a gritty team as well. This one has the makings of a tight dual and there is a lot on the line for the Tar Heels; they need to win to have a shot at a share of the dual title. Based on rankings, Stanford holds a 6-4 advantage here, but they are giving up 6 to start at 125. There are two key matches I see that can swing this dual in either direction. At 141, both Jayden Scott and Jason Miranda have had flashes of brilliance this season and are coming off of tough losses last week. We should also see the return of Grigor Cholakyan against Sonny Santiago in what could be a very tight match that will have major implications on the overall dual. I am also very interested to see Lachlan McNeil against his toughest test in conference this year in Jaden Abas (McNeil didn’t face Caleb Henson in the opening dual as he was out with an injury). We should also see Lorenzo Norman returning to the lineup after a couple weeks' absence; he has been incredible this year and will have a big match against Josh Ogunsanya. This should be a battle of a dual and will be a fun one to watch. 

#17 Pittsburgh at Virginia

125 #24 Nick Babin v #31 Keyveon Roller

133 Tyler Chappell v #33 Gable Porter

141 Anthony Santaniello v #19 Dylan Cedeno

149 #23 Finn Solomon v Jack Gioffre/Erik Roggie

157 #21 Dylan Evans v Michael Gioffre/Nick Sanko

165 #33 Jared Keslar v #21 Nick Hamilton

174 #21 Luca Augustine v Rocco Contino

184 #13 Reece Heller/Chase Kranitz v Griffin Gammell

197 #10 Mac Stout v Stephen Burrell/Ethan Weatherspoon

285 #14 Dayton Pitzer v Gabe Christensen

Pitt has been consistent and dangerous all season. Their loss to North Carolina on criteria put the Tar Heels in position for a share of the title; that’s how close it has been all conference season. Virginia has been hampered by injuries and illnesses throughout their lineup and are hoping to have a full, healthy lineup for the postseason. I am hopeful that we see a full lineup for the Hoos this week, as they could use some positive momentum and more mat time for the guys who have been out. There are some fun matches to keep your eye on in this dual, starting at 125. Babin and Roller will have major seeding implications for the ACC tournament and both of them want this match. Cedeno is looking to finish the conference season strong for the Hoos, as is Nick Hamilton who will sit toward the top of the seedings at a wide-open 165. The upper weights for the Panthers have been their strength all season, and they are all looking to go out on top. One thing to watch there is whether we see Reece Heller back at 184 - he was out with an injury last week. Also, I think 174 will be a sneaky good match. Augustine has had some huge wins and some tough losses, he is looking to bounce back after getting pinned by Lennox Wolak last week and will have a fresh, and dangerous Rocco Contino who had his first conference match last week since returning from an injury.