2025 NCAA Championship Finals Preview

Let’s get right down to it! It’s the NCAA finals. We don’t need much more of an introduction than that. Here’s what to look for in our ten championship matches. 125 lbs #4 Vince Robinson (NC State) vs. #7 Troy Spratley (Oklahoma State) This matchup is interesting because if you were to just look at seeds it might appear that these are two underdogs who shocked the rest of the bracket. That’s not really the case here. Despite their seeds, both spent most of the 2024-25 campaign around the top of the rankings. The 125 lb clash will be the second of the year between Robinson and Spratley. The two met in an early January dual in Gallagher-Iba Arena and the freshman Robinson controlled the contest to the tune of 7-3. The finals appearance marks the first All-American honor for Spratley who made the tournament for the first time in 2024. That time he was the sixth seed and ended up finishing in the NCAA Round of 12. In both years, Spartley was the Big 12 runner-up. Robinson is a redshirt freshman who was ranked #50 overall in the recruiting Class of 2023. He started his college career with 13 straight wins. Robinson had to medically forfeit out of the Cliff Keen Las Vegas Invitational or else he might have had another meeting with Spratley. The Cowboy ended up taking third place. As is the case with the lightweights, this matchup has the potential for plenty of fireworks. Both have a good offensive arsenal and are lightning-quick. Pick: Vince Robinson by decision 133 lbs #1 Lucas Byrd (Illinois) vs. #2 Drake Ayala (Iowa) This will be the third chapter in the rivalry between two-time All-American Lucas Byrd and 2024 NCAA runner-up Drake Ayala. The pair split the first two matches and they couldn’t have been more different. The first one, in dual competition at Iowa’s Carver-Hawkeye Arena, was a very tactical defensive struggle. Ayala got the only takedown late in the final stanza. The second matchup occurred in the finals of the Big Ten Championships. Byrd promptly ended things as he threw Ayala to his back in a cow-catcher and secured a fall. The loss to Byrd snapped a 16-match winning streak for Ayala. That loss hasn’t impacted the Hawkeye in a negative fashion as he’s looked excellent in Philly. Ayala had a tech fall and two major decisions before a controlling 6-1 decision over Wisconsin’s Zan Fugitt in the semifinals. Byrd has had some close calls along the way - with a one-point win against the #32 seed Hunter Leake of California Baptist. In the semifinals, Byrd blanked #4 Zeth Romney (Cal Poly) 4-0. Since his loss to Ayala, Byrd has reeled off 11 straight wins. Though Byrd has finished fifth at the NCAA Tournament on two occasions, he hasn’t had deep NCAA Championship runs - prior to this year. Before this year, he only made the quarterfinals once (and that was when he missed the podium). Pick: Drake Ayala by decision 141 lbs #1 Brock Hardy (Nebraska) vs. #3 Jesse Mendez (Ohio State) This will be a bit of a recurring theme as we have a rematch at 141 lbs with Big Ten rivals Brock Hardy and Jesse Mendez. Hardy is the top-seed and a two-time All-American. Mendez was the top seed at the 2024 tournament and ended up winning his first national title. Last year, the pair met in the quarterfinals and Mendez got the upper hand with a 6-2 win. Earlier in that season, Mendez majored Hardy at the CKLV. This season, Hardy broke through and posted his first win over Mendez in a 9-8 shootout in the Big Ten semifinals. Hardy is amidst his best streak as a collegiate - winning 14 straight matches and claiming his first conference title. Philly has been more of the same as Hardy’s closest match was an 11-4 win over Cael Happel (Northern Iowa) in the semifinals. Hardy is one of three NCAA finalists for Nebraska. The Cornhuskers have had an amazing tournament and are looking to crown their first individual champion since Jordan Burroughs in 2011…..in this same building. Mendez took a couple of uncharacteristic losses near the end of the season; however, he hasn’t let that impact his 2025 national tournament. He was able to open up his vast offensive arsenal and post major decision wins over Sergio Lemley and Vance Vombaur, before outlasting long-time rival Beau Bartlett in tiebreakers. Bartlett was responsible for two of Mendez’s three losses on the year. Pick: Jesse Mendez by decision 149 lbs #1 Caleb Henson (Virginia Tech) vs. #2 Ridge Lovett (Nebraska) Even though they aren’t conference rivals, this will be the fourth career meeting between Caleb Henson and Ridge Lovett. Most notable for the two occurred at the 2024 national tournament when Henson got by Lovett 1-0 in the semifinals. Earlier that year, the two met in the CKLV finals and Lovett won 4-3. This season the pair also met in the CKLV finals and Henson claimed a second straight victory. Henson is the first wrestler we’ve discussed who is sporting a perfect record. Even with his unblemished record, Henson has been pushed to the limit a few times in Philly. He had to use extra time to down Jordan Williams in the quarterfinals and hasn’t won a match by more than four points. You can either interpret that as potentially vulnerable or battle-tested and unfazed by the big moments. Since he already has an NCAA title, I’ll choose the latter. Lovett bounced back after a loss to Henson with a major decision win over Shayne Van Ness. He would suffer another regular season loss to Kyle Parco who had long-dominated their rivalry. That changed at the Big Ten Championships when Lovett majored Parco in the semifinals. He used a 1-0 decision to claim his second Big Ten crown. At nationals, Lovett survived a rocky start with a 10-8 win over Sam Cartella, but has been lights out since. He majored his Big Ten finals opponent, Kannon Webster, and jumped out to a big lead on Van Ness before winning a 14-8 decision. This match could be as strategic as any with Lovett’s excellent ability from the top position. Pick: Caleb Henson by decision 157 lbs #3 Antrell Taylor (Nebraska) vs. #8 Joey Blaze (Purdue) If you had this matchup in your per-tournament bracket then I salute you, we might need to have a talk. One of the shockers of the quarterfinal round was when Joey Blaze was able to upset top-seeded Tyler Kasak. Blaze was able to keep the dangerous Kasak off the scoreboard and used a late takedown to win. Blaze’s finals appearance makes him a first-time All-American. Last year, as a true freshman, Blaze went 0-2 at the Big Dance. This time, Blaze came into the tournament as the eighth seed after a third-place showing at the Big Ten Championships. Blaze has had to be resourceful throughout his tournament, as he won via riding time criteria over Big Ten opponent Tommy Askey in the Round of 16. Taylor had one of the more surprising wins over the semifinals when he knocked off #2 Meyer Shapiro. Shapiro didn’t have a non-injury-related loss during the 2024-25 campaign. This will be Taylor’s second All-American honor. As a freshman, in 2024, he finished eighth at 165 lbs. Taylor’s introduction to the 157 lb weight class included wins in his first 13 contests - a streak that included the Navy Classic and the CKLV. There will be plenty of familiarity and recent history between these two. They met twice at the Big Ten Championships with Taylor striking first, but Blaze getting revenge in the third-place match. Pick: Antrell Taylor by decision 165 lbs #1 Mitchell Mesenbrink (Penn State) vs. #3 Michael Caliendo (Iowa) For the entirety of the 2024-25 season, Mitchell Mesenbrink and Michael Caliendo were seen as the top two wrestlers in the 165 lb weight class. That has proven to be the case as Mesenbrink has been undefeated and one of the most dominant wrestlers at any weight. Caliendo’s only losses have come to Mesenbrink - in the dual meet and Big Ten finals. Mesenbrink’s quarterfinal win over Cam Amine was only his second regular decision win of the season. The other came to Caliendo in the Big Ten finals. The 4-1 score was much closer than the 19-4 tech fall in their Big Ten dual. Last year, the two met three times and they all went in Mesenbrink’s direction. In the semifinals, Caliendo jumped out to a big lead on Peyton Hall and held on to win 13-10. Pick: Mitchell Mesenbrink by major decision 174 lbs #1 Keegan O’Toole (Missouri) vs. #3 Dean Hamiti (Oklahoma State) One of the most anticipated rematches of the tournament was Keegan O’Toole versus Levi Haines in a battle of national champions. That won’t happen as Dean Hamiti spoiled the rematch and booked one of his own. He and O’Toole met in the Big 12 finals and the Mizzou wrestler got the win in sudden victory. O’Toole is seeking his third NCAA title and this is his fifth All-American honor. O’Toole is now 20-0 on the year and 108-4 on the year. He solidified his #1 billing with a win over Haines in the Collegiate Duals. After that, O’Toole missed two months of competition. He has returned with a knee brace and generally looks close to his normal self. Hamiti is in his first year at Oklahoma State after earning All-American honors twice at Wisconsin. He has thrived in the new atmosphere and made the finals for the first time. After his semifinal win over Haines, Hamiti might be riding a high that’s hard to stop. Pick: Dean Hamiti by decision 184 lbs #1 Carter Starocci (Penn State) vs. #3 Parker Keckeisen The lead-off bout tonight will be one of the most anticipated (perhaps most) of the evening. Carter Starocci is seeking his fifth NCAA title - a feat never accomplished before in college wrestling, and he’ll take on returning champion Parker Keckeisen. Keckeisen won the 184 lb crown in 2024 and Starocci moved up from 174. Keckeisen was an undefeated champion in 2024 and has not lost an official match in 2024-25. He did fall to Starocci in the early-season NWCA All-Star Match; however, both are more in prime condition, as opposed to November. Keckeisen advanced to the finals after a semifinal win over Max McEnelly in which Keckeisen pulled off one of the most memorable scrambles of the tournament. McEnelly also pushed Starocci into sudden victory at the Big Ten finals. By any metric, this should be an excellent matchup. Keckeisen might have the better arsenal of attacks, but Starocci has more of a stout defense and is tough from the top. Pick: Carter Starocci by decision 197 lbs #2 Stephen Buchanan (Iowa) vs. #4 Josh Barr (Penn State) This will be a rematch of the highly-anticipated dual that saw freshman Josh Barr push Stephen Buchanan, who was the top-ranked wrestler in the nation, at the time. Though Buchanan got the 4-1 win, the match proved that Barr could hang with the best in the country and perhaps challenge for a national title in his first year in the Nittany Lion lineup. Buchanan is now a four-time All-American and the first DI wrestler to earn All-American honors for three different programs. He was third and eighth at Wyoming and third at Oklahoma. Buchanan has reached a new level at Iowa could give the Hawkeyes their first champion since Spencer Lee in 2021. Barr suffered an injury at the Big Ten Championships and had to forfeit to sixth place. His status was one of the pre-tournament storylines; however, Barr has been excellent. He has had to go through three multi-time All-Americans just to make the finals. Depending on how other matches go, this bout could determine whether or not Penn State beats the all-time team points record. Pick: Stephen Buchanan by decision 285 lbs #1 Gable Steveson (Minnesota) vs. #2 Wyatt Hendrickson (Oklahoma State) This will be the final match of the evening and the main event! Gable Steveson is looking to cap off his highly decorated collegiate career with a third NCAA title. Wyatt Hendrickson is a two-time NCAA third-place finisher using his final year of eligibility at Oklahoma State. Both are among the most athletic and offensive-minded heavyweights in some time. Hendrickson made the finals after shocking 2024 NCAA champion Greg Kerkvliet in the semifinals. Steveson had the unusual feat of winning via first-period disqualification from stalling followed by a tech fall and a 13-5 major decision over Owen Trephan. Steveson hasn’t been seriously threatened since his return to the college ranks - can Hendrickson provide some sort of opposition to the 2020 Olympic Gold Medalist? Pick: Gable Steveson by decision

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